Homebound wrote...
so nexgen winners r ps4 and lagging behind is nintendo.
as long as xbox doesnt win im happy.
Not necessarily, there's a lot of ways this can go, that scenario is just one of them. First, establishing the basis of my argument...
-The video game market has been in steep decline for at least two years, and quite possibly more (Rockband/Guitar Hero may have disguised contractions in general gaming). It's so bad that today the NPD is including mobile games as gaming revenue, and doesn't appear to be announcing to the public how year-over-year revenues are going with consoles, leading me to believe that the market is continuing to shrink from even 2012's abysmal numbers.
-There are currently 7 to 10 platforms that will be in play by the end of 2014. 360, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, PC, Wii-U, Ouya, Shield, Madcatz newly announced Android console, and possibly the Steambox.
So what we have is a market that's largely rejecting games in this current generation, for whatever reason, most likely because they're all nearly the same games, and a unprecedented number of platforms in play. It's entirely possible that the large number of platforms will cause a significant number of people to stay on the sidelines out of uncertainty, as no one wants to buy a console and have it be a paperweight. Especialy for dedicated but not hardcore X-box fans.
If Sony comes out with a release list that's largely Doom-clone, Call of Duty-clone, Gears of War-clone, Uncharted-clone, it's *extremely* likely that all but the most hardcore will decide to wait to buy a new system. Waiting for new IP's and a larger library, and for the dust to settle.
That'll be catastrophic. That'll wipe out the Game Industry in a year. If people aren't buying games on today's platforms, aren't migrating to tomorrows or migrating very slowly, and publishers are dumping hundreds of millions into new game development hoping that it will shore up flagging revenues, they're not going to survive. They *need* people to migrate quickly and to buy a large number of games apiece.
I can't really make a prediction at this point, E3 will shed some light on things, but I'd say there's a very good chance that this is going to end badly and quickly. Given that right now, Publishers require a market base of ~140 million just to squeak buy with unimpressive profits, and that console launches have never been know to sell anything remotely close to 140 million, there's an enourmous amount of risk right now. The tepid reception to both machines is concerning too, especially since I don't believe either one has shown anything but pre-renders yet.
Modifié par Gatt9, 09 juin 2013 - 06:15 .