Coyotebay wrote...
When I was going for my masters, I took classes in systems dynamics and quantitative analysis. One of my projects was building a dynamic model of harbor seals in Alaska, and showing how if you change any of handful of factors by a little bit you cause their population to plummet catastrophically. You can do the same thing with the Reaper harvest model. If you take Drake's equation and start with, say, 10,000 worlds with intelligent life on them, probably 1% would be in the advanced stage, with the other 99% somewhere between the stone age and our own 21st century. So 100 worlds with advanced sapients on them. The Reapers harvest them, then go away for 50,000 years. Now you are down to 9,900 worlds with intelligent life on them. Add back maybe 10 from the million worlds with some form of life on them (and that's generous, as only a tiny fraction of one percernt of these worlds would only be 50,000 years away from producing the next intelligent species), and you have 9,910 total. During the next 50,000 years, another 1% hit advanced stage, so that's 99 worlds. The Reapers harvest them. Now you are down to 9,811 worlds with intelligent life. In the next 50,000 years, add back another 10 for a total of 9,821. The Reapers harvest 98 worlds this time, and you are down to 9,723. You can see where this is going...
Now factor in that the total number of planets supporting life will suffer attrition thorugh the eons, through natural disasters, planets colliding, asteroids, stars going nova...you name it. So gradually over time the total pool of planets capable of supporting intelligent life diminishes. Because the Reapers NEVER allow organics OR even synthetics to evolve to where they could terraform other worlds and create new templates for life, the Reapers have capped thte total number of life-giving planets available, while at the same time very quickly reducing the planets with intelligent life on them down to nothing. The Reapers therefore insure that not only will intelligent life eventually become extinct, but in the long run, so will all life. For the Catalyst not to see this is the ultimate logical failure of its argument. And I am sure that is because the writers didn't really figure this out.
I am not sure the point you are making here. In the Catalysts mind without the Reapers, those 10,000 worlds all get wiped out pretty much within a single cycle of extermination that lasts X numbers of year. That's it game over.
Not that I necessarily agree with the numbers but I guess I am not sure why you think that is a problem for the Catalyst as if it is some bleeding heart liberal. It was charged with preserving life at all costs. It is allowing life to survive over billions of years of harvesting rather than be exterminated over the course of say a couple hundred thousand years of mass extermination.
Further, once the Reapers purge earth of humans, after a billion years without humans, who is to say another sentient species does not evolve on earth and the cycle just repeats itself like this everywhere. Evolution is always occurring.
However, if the synthetics who want to destory organic life understand anything about evolution then they should destroy all organic life on earth and poison the planet to ensure sentient organic life can never develop again period. Destroy Earth's oceans and poison the soil. That's it game over.





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