I don't require that at all. They only need to lack compelling evidence that angering fans does lead to lost revenue.
You're positioning the lost revenue as the default position that needs to be disproven, but I don't think that's reasonable. If BioWare has moved down this Day 1 DLC path, they either have some reason to favour it or they don't. If it's the latter, and they made this big a decision in the absence of meaningful information, then they're not likely to respond to reasoned arguments now. But if it's the former, then they do have some reason to favour Day 1 DLC, and thus the default position you're advancing is the wrong default position.
I'm merely assuming the first position (free D1DLC) as the default one. Given that it is also the one that results in best consumer reaction is merely a bonus. The way some are making this argument out, you'd think Bioware had been doing Paid D1DLC for years and that Free D1DLC is a fluke.
Yet that's the exact opposite of the reality. Free came first, Bioware has three times more experience with that model and Bioware has been chewed apart because of the one release that included the new model. I don't see why we should assume that Paid D1DLC is the "default" other than the fact it was the most recent.
BioWare has clearly found whatever measures that were available to them compelling. You can't just hand-wave that away.
How is that clearly demonstrated? They made one game with Paid D1DLC. That's a statistical fluke, by any method of measurement. Besides, Bioware also found whatever measures they needed to justify an 18 month development period for DA2, yet that was obviously a mistake. You're assuming the people making decisions that (may) have access to the correct data are interpreting it correctly. When, in reality, Bioware has stumbled into blunder after blunder over the past five years.
I think they are either using bad data gathering methods, terrible analytical models or are just flying y the seat of their pants.
Or they think they can have both. And, prior to the XB1 launch, they had good reason to think that. XB1 wasn't supposed to allow resale, and they can also prevent resale on PC by tying each game to Origin. As such, there would have been no need to use DLC to encourage new buys.
This doesn't hold water. ME3 had no intention of being next gen. ME3 is the only game that had Paid D1DLC. DA:I's DLC models have not even been remotely discussed with public. Whether of not they stick with Paid D1DLC, Free D1DLC, Week 3/4 DLC with Season Pass or some other DLC model remains to be seen by the public. So we can't put any assumptions on changes in next gen console policies, since those policies would have only affected DA:I, not ME3.
Doesn't the same apply to any significant change in policy of this sort?
It does. However, when people say "Bioware obviously knows what they're doing" as if they have a crystal ball that can see how fan reaction, increased revenue and total sales play out if they use one method over another, I just like to reintegrate this fact - they don't. But there was no reason to think that Free D1DLC would hurt revenue or relations over time. There is every reason to suspect Paid D-DLC might. And Bioware doesn't know that any better than you or I.
I don't feel alienated (at least, not by the DLC - in fact, as DLC serves as a de facto move toward modular game design and modular game sales, I'd say it has the potential to be extremely consumer friendly).
Well, first off... you, or me (or any particular individual) don't matter. Only the group aggregate does. And the rule of sales are simple - word of mouth sells of kills. You may have twenty people buy your product, but only which is very vocal. If that person is very vocal in a positive manner, you may gain 100 more units sold. If it is very negative, you might not sell another unit at all (even if all 19 of the other silent customers were happy or, at the least, I offended by your product). That's the nature of the consumer market.
Secondly, this isn't an attack on the DLC model. Given that you and I agree that game cost is unnaturally lower than it should be, given market conditions, it would seem a decent compromise to give content to those who want more (and are willing to pay for it).
This is an argument against Paid D1DLC. It could be Paid Day 14 DLC, or Free D1DLC or Expansion in eighth months DLC... all would be fine, as long as it is not asking for more money for extra story content in the very first day of release. That is what Bioware has done with ME3 and the OP (among many others) is asking them not to.
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