641 réponses à ce sujet

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

25 Arsenal Packs--3 UR's, no doubles.

[ComradeShepard7]

InterwebNinja wrote...

That is correct interpretation with the blue highlighted fields, and yes that particular sheet was from Retaliation.  My UR drop rate does not include UR characters.  As far as I can tell, UR character drops are indepedent from UR weapons (i.e. UR weapons' drop rate is the same whether you have a maxed UR character manifest or not).

You are correct about UR characters being handled separately from UR weapons.

Alright, I ran the numbers and got the same as you but I have records for 1371 PSP purchases (212 UR weapon drops) from before Retaliation so I took a look at that as well. From my data only I get a pre DLC per pack drop rate of 15.5% (CI of 13.6% - 17.5 %) and when I combined our data from before Retaliation (now 1698 packs and 240 drops) I get a per pack drop rate of 14.1% (CI of 12.6% - 15.9%).

I also have Post DLC data, so I took the PSP data I have from the release of Retaliation up till the end of October 2012 (449 packs with 62) drops which gives a per pack drop rate of 13.7% (CI of 10.9% - 17.3%) while your post DLC data (512 packs with 91 drops) gives 17.8% (CI of 14.7% - 21.3%). Combining our post DLC data (961 packs with 153 drops) gives a per pack drop rate of 15.9% (CI of 13.7% - 18.4%).

From this I would say there isn't anything unusual about the drop rates in either period. While a few hundred packs does seem like a lot of data, when I only had a few hundred pack records for SPs, APs and RPs when I started this effort, their point estimates and CIs would shift quite noticibly week to week as more data was taken, and the estimates didn't really settle down until we had taken significantly more data. This isn't suprising since the drop rate is so low and having fewer than 70 packs per person for post DLC records doesn't give the longer dry streaks a chance to show themselves.

Edit:
Here is a month by month breakdown of the per pack drop rates from the older PSP data I have.



As you can see there is quite a bit of shifting in the estimates from month to month when there are fewer than 700 packs for each of those months (Sep 2012 has the most with 697).

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 16 novembre 2013 - 04:09 .

[ComradeShepard7]

Evil Mastered wrote...

Just blown 3.5 million on arsenal packs.
First 8 had nothing,
two in a row with a single UR,
one with nothing,
one with a single UR,
eight in a row with nothing,
one with a single UR,
the final thirteen had nothing.

Total, 34 AP's, 4 UR's, 0 doubles.

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

25 Arsenal Packs--3 UR's, no doubles.

Thanks for the data.

[Mask of Apathy]

5 APs, no URs

[InterwebNinja]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

From this I would say there isn't anything unusual about the drop rates in either period. While a few hundred packs does seem like a lot of data, when I only had a few hundred pack records for SPs, APs and RPs when I started this effort, their point estimates and CIs would shift quite noticibly week to week as more data was taken, and the estimates didn't really settle down until we had taken significantly more data. This isn't suprising since the drop rate is so low and having fewer than 70 packs per person for post DLC records doesn't give the longer dry streaks a chance to show themselves.

As you can see there is quite a bit of shifting in the estimates from month to month when there are fewer than 700 packs for each of those months (Sep 2012 has the most with 697).

Excellent analysis - thank you.  I still find it bizarre that we could measure something as low as 8.5% in a 327 pack sample for PSPs, but the data speaks for itself.  Measuring low probability events is clearly difficult.

Regardless, I'm glad to see some other people were working on this problem.  If I had known this was going on earlier on BSN I would have tried to reconcile our data earlier.  You clearly have more stats knowledge than I do.  I'm just a humble, practical engineer.

All that said, if they never did bump UR drop rates, I think they should have.  There was too much dilution of content with all the new UR weapons released and I think it became prohibitive for newer players.

edit:  Whenever ME4 comes around, send me a message, and I'll rally the troops from r/MECoOp to collect more data again.  We don't have nearly the membership of BSN, but people are very willing to contribute.  There has to be a more efficient way of doing this which doesn't require parsing comments.

Modifié par InterwebNinja, 16 novembre 2013 - 06:06 .

[ComradeShepard7]

InterwebNinja wrote...

Excellent analysis - thank you.  I still find it bizarre that we could measure something as low as 8.5% in a 327 pack sample for PSPs, but the data speaks for itself.  Measuring low probability events is clearly difficult.

Regardless, I'm glad to see some other people were working on this problem.  If I had known this was going on earlier on BSN I would have tried to reconcile our data earlier.  You clearly have more stats knowledge than I do.  I'm just a humble, practical engineer.

All that said, if they never did bump UR drop rates, I think they should have.  There was too much dilution of content with all the new UR weapons released and I think it became prohibitive for newer players.

edit:  Whenever ME4 comes around, send me a message, and I'll rally the troops from r/MECoOp to collect more data again.  We don't have nearly the membership of BSN, but people are very willing to contribute.  There has to be a more efficient way of doing this which doesn't require parsing comments.

I'm no stats expert and this project wouldn't have found as much as it has without the help of some people around here who are much more knowledgable than me about this subject. I'm still looking for data at this point so sending all that data my way certainly helps. If there are players who frequent reddit and haven't maxed their manifests yet I would appreciate it if you could send them this way so I can get more people collecting data.

As far as being more efficient in the future, having everyone record data in a single manner would be the only thing that could really speed things up. As it is now, once I convert data into the standard format I use in the main spreadsheet I can calculate everything really quickly since I just feed it into a MATLAB script.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

What is the standard format?

(# of packs)(pack type)(# of URs)(# of doubles (if applicable))(# of weapons)(# of characters) is what I've been using, but if I can make it easier for you to enter my data, let me know.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 16 novembre 2013 - 08:02 .

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

What is the standard format?

(# of packs)(pack type)(# of URs)(# of doubles (if applicable))(# of weapons)(# of characters) is what I've been using, but if I can make it easier for you to enter my data, let me know.

That works perfectly fine but I don't actually need the UR character numbers since we have found that they are handled separately from the weapons.

Another good way is giving me the grand totals for all the pack types you've bought which would be like:

(pack type)(number of packs bought of that type since you started keeping track)(total number of UR weapon drops you've gotten from that pack type)(total number of double UR weapon packs you've gotten for that pack type)

With that I don't have to sum anything or keep track of which groups of purchases I've already entered since I have the grand totals for that person right there.

The final method that works well is the column of data for a pack type where each entry is a record of the UR weapons recieved in a single pack. For this I just copy and paste into the spreadsheet and adjust the limits on the SUM() and COUNTIF(), and change the number for the last pack in the record which equals the number of packs purchased.

Any of these three work fine its just some of the odd ways of keeping track that I've gotten here that take a while to figure out, and some of the old data collection attempts where I have to manually go through and extract the data due to inconsistancies in the way it was recorded.

[The_Bastage]

12 more AP and my manifest is complete.

What can I do to help now?

[ComradeShepard7]

The_Bastage wrote...

12 more AP and my manifest is complete.

What can I do to help now?

Well taking data is really the only thing there is to do at this point.

[TheTechnoTurian]

I checked my spreadsheet where I was keeping this data, there's actually some Spectre pack data I forgot to give you from before I switched to RPs:

43 Spectre Packs
2 URs

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

Bought 52 Spectre Packs, got 6 URs. Totals are 352 and 28, respectively.

Also bought 10 Reserves packs and got 2 URs, bringing the respective totals up to 145 and 27 (40 if UR characters are included).

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 17 novembre 2013 - 04:24 .

[ComradeShepard7]

ReaperRed wrote...

I checked my spreadsheet where I was keeping this data, there's actually some Spectre pack data I forgot to give you from before I switched to RPs:

43 Spectre Packs
2 URs

FatherOfPearl wrote...

Bought 52 Spectre Packs, got 6 URs. Totals are 352 and 28, respectively.

Also bought 10 Reserves packs and got 2 URs, bringing the respective totals up to 145 and 27 (40 if UR characters are included).

Thanks for the data.

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 17 novembre 2013 - 05:18 .

[Megadux]

I bought 1187 Spectre packs and got 96 URs.
Once had 58 consecutive packs without any UR.

[ComradeShepard7]

MegaduxT wrote...

I bought 1187 Spectre packs and got 96 URs.
Once had 58 consecutive packs without any UR.

Thanks for the data.

[PaunchyCyclops]

Linked document is now a pdf rather than a google doc as LaTeX gives a lot better formatting for figures and tables than a published google doc.

LaTeX rocks!

And thanks.

Modifié par PaunchyCyclops, 17 novembre 2013 - 07:00 .

[graywolfpvw]

52 SP 4 UR

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

So, is there any indication that the data coming in might be skewed by the tendency to start keeping count during a hot streak or a dry spell?

[ComradeShepard7]

PaunchyCyclops wrote...

Linked document is now a pdf rather than a google doc as LaTeX gives a lot better formatting for figures and tables than a published google doc.

LaTeX rocks!

And thanks.

No problem.

graywolfpvw wrote...

52 SP 4 UR

Thanks for the data.

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

So, is there any indication that the data coming in might be skewed by the tendency to start keeping count during a hot streak or a dry spell?

Considering that 89.7% of the data we currently have came from people who took more than 100 samples for a single pack type I doubt there is much skew. What is even crazier is that 35.2% of the data comes from people who took more than 1000 samples for a single pack type.

[ComradeShepard7]

The report has been updated. In the last week 13727 samples were added (though 5034 of them were for PSPs) partially thanks to data received from r/MECoOp on Reddit. In addition to the standard updates, I added a bit of discussion about the ammo and equipment dropped in the packs to the section where the costs are compared at the suggestion of Qui-Gon Glenn. I also added a section to the OP with the percent of the 10000 sample goal for each pack that has been reached along with the number of packs that are still needed.

[mhy_]

13 APs, 0 URs.

Then I bought a single Spectre Pack (not PSP!) and got a Javelin...WTF!

Modifié par mhy_, 22 novembre 2013 - 01:06 .

[ComradeShepard7]

mhy_ wrote...

13 APs, 0 URs.

Then I bought a single Spectre Pack (not PSP!) and got a Javelin...WTF!

Its just RNG being RNG.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

100 Arsenal Packs, 17 URs, 2 doubles.

Since you're really close to the 10000 data points on APs, I decided to contribute a bit towards those. Can't recall if I've previously posted any AP data.

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

100 Arsenal Packs, 17 URs, 2 doubles.

Since you're really close to the 10000 data points on APs, I decided to contribute a bit towards those. Can't recall if I've previously posted any AP data.

Thanks for the data. I don't have any precious APs from you on record. Hopefully we will pass 10000 AP samples by Tuesday.

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 22 novembre 2013 - 04:29 .

[JainuJffk]

25 Spectre packs - 5 Ultra rares.