641 réponses à ce sujet

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

25 Arsenal Packs--4 UR's, no doubles.

[ComradeShepard7]

JainuJffk wrote...

25 Spectre packs - 5 Ultra rares.

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

25 Arsenal Packs--4 UR's, no doubles.

Thanks for the data.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

50 Arsenal Packs, 5 URs, no doubles.

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

50 Arsenal Packs, 5 URs, no doubles.

Thanks for the data. We are now at 4731 APs.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

Another 50 APs, 10 URs, no doubles.

I got eight of the URs within the first 25 packs, which was very surprising.

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

Another 50 APs, 10 URs, no doubles.

I got eight of the URs within the first 25 packs, which was very surprising.

Thanks for the data. 171 APs to go now.

[SwoopIM]

15 APs--got 3 URs (no doubles)

[PoloVisionJames]

 Since the last post, I've openned 57 SPs and have obtained 3 URs. That brings the total to 72 SPs and 4URs. 

[ComradeShepard7]

SwoopIM wrote...

15 APs--got 3 URs (no doubles)

PoloVisionJames wrote...

 Since the last post, I've openned 57 SPs and have obtained 3 URs. That brings the total to 72 SPs and 4URs. 

Thanks for the data. Still 156 APs to go so hopefully that will be reached when I get data from the people who send me weekly updates.

[mybudgee]

You guys are crazy

[i hate you all]

Oh! I still need to send you my data. I maxed out over the weekend.

[JainuJffk]

19 SP - no UR : 48 AP - 1 x UR - 6 million credits for 1 UR - store troll ftw

[ComradeShepard7]

i hate you all wrote...

Oh! I still need to send you my data. I maxed out over the weekend.

Congratulations, and the sooner I get the data the better.

JainuJffk wrote...

19 SP - no UR : 48 AP - 1 x UR - 6 million credits for 1 UR - store troll ftw

Thanks for the data. 104 APs to go.

[ComradeShepard7]

The pdf has been updated. We still need 104 more APs but I haven't gotten data from the weekly update people yet.

[FireRider100]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

The pdf has been updated. We still need 104 more APs but I haven't gotten data from the weekly update people yet.

I'll be updating tonight, although I think it will only be 9 more APs of data.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

I'll go buy some APs, maybe I can get you to your goal.

edit: 38% drop rate after 25 packs. RNG pls

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 26 novembre 2013 - 09:27 .

[leboss78]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

Math-lite summary of what has been found:

• SPs have a higher long term cost per UR weapon drop than the other packs. This does not take into account the other items, including ammo and equipment, dropped in the packs which a player may be seeking. Specifically, in the non UR capable slots (including the first slot if your consumables are maxed), SPs will only drop level III ammo and equipment (and maybe a respec card) while the ammo and consumables in the 99k packs will vary in level from I-III.
• As far as we can tell, all packs have the same per slot drop rate.
• For the packs that can drop multiple UR cards (PSPs, APs, and RPs), each slot is calculated independently.
• UR character drops and UR weapo drops are handled independently so if you get an UR character drop you are not being "cheated" out of an UR weapon drop.
• The current drop rate estimates and all the other details involving this project can be found here.

About

I've resumed the effort to determine the UR drop rate that was started way back when for PSPs but was never thoroughly extended to the other pack types (at least that I have seen). While going through the old PSP data I did find that the script that was used to determine the drop rate was counting some non UR cards as URs leading to the drop rate that was found being a bit higher than it actually is. I've corrected that with this new effort.

At this point, we still need more data for SPs, APs, and RPs. the details of the project can be found here. In addition to looking at drop rates and long term costs per UR it also includes info about UR drop streaks as well as information about the independence of the two slots that can drop URs in PSPs, APs and RPs, and UR characters vs UR weapons.

This project still needs more data so if you have yet to max your manifest and would like to help, please email me at comradeshepard7@gmail.com or contact me on here. I plan on updating the document with the analysis on Tuesdays and if i get additional data soon after updating I'll do another update on Wednesdays.

Current Progress
The goal for data collection for each pack is to get 10000 samples. The progress towards this goal is detailed below:

• PSPs: 177% (no more data needed but I will still take it if you have it)
• SPs: 72% (2843 more packs needed)
• APs: 98% (104 more packs needed)
• RPs: 55% (2245 more packs needed)

Stuff that has changed since the topic was originally made:

• Linked document is now a pdf rather than a google doc as LaTeX gives a lot better formatting for figures and tables than a published google doc.
• The document now provides a lot more detail, including explanations of the math behind the project, which will hopefully help people understand the results a bit better.
• wngmv, DocDAM and I have now reached a consensus that the slots are independent. If you read anything about slot independence that was posted here before I suggest you forget it and take a look at the new stuff as there were errors in the previous versions.
• It has been determined that UR characters are handled independently from UR weapons.
• If you would like to see the data spreadsheet or the MATLAB scripts they can be found in a zip file here. If you want to run the MATLAB script, UR_Drop_Analysis_Script.m is the main file, and you need to make sure all the MATLAB files and the spreadsheet are all in the same folder.
• Some discussion of the ammo and equipment dropped in SPs vs the 99k packs was added by Qui-Gon Glenn's suggestion to the parts where the packs are being compared.

Incredible work you did here;), and written in LaTeX, are you a true statistician? So it finally seems that no pack has a better drop rate, and packs even seem to be independant, so we have nothing to do to increase our chances...

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

I'll go buy some APs, maybe I can get you to your goal.

Your assistance will be most appreciated. I have gotten some more data on the google spreadsheet since earlier so 83 packs to go now.

[Lord Nutfork]

o.k. I have been buying 2-3 Arsenal Packs per night. I will start writing down the data for you and report back in a few days.

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

85 APs, 18 URs, no doubles.

One RP, one UR.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 26 novembre 2013 - 09:47 .

[ComradeShepard7]

leboss78 wrote...

Incredible work you did here;), and written in LaTeX, are you a true statistician? So it finally seems that no pack has a better drop rate, and packs even seem to be independant, so we have nothing to do to increase our chances...

I'm no statistician and this project wouldn't have accomplished as much as it has without the assistance of those around here who are much more knowledgable in the subject. While there are no packs with better per slot drop rates as far as we can tell so far, the long term cost per UR for Spectre Packs is higher than for the other packs.

[ComradeShepard7]

FatherOfPearl wrote...

85 APs, 18 URs, no doubles.

One RP, one UR.

Well that gets us to the AP goal so thank you very much. I'll update the stuff in a bit.

[ComradeShepard7]

Lord Nutfork wrote...

o.k. I have been buying 2-3 Arsenal Packs per night. I will start writing down the data for you and report back in a few days.

We just reach the 10000 sample goal for Aresenal Packs so it would be better if you took data for Reserves Packs or Spectre Packs if you don't mind.

[ComradeShepard7]

Everything has been updated now that the goal has been reached for APs.

[zuckendesfleish]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

Everything has been updated now that the goal has been reached for APs.

Nice! I'll switch to RP then, I need 30 more URs so I won't get rid of the damn RNG store anytime soon