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Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


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#351
Alex_Dur4and

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Incredible luck today! Never been this lucky on ME3 before... I'll enjoy it while it lasts!

23 PSPs, 7 UR
X = nothing
O = contains one UR
(OO) = contains two UR

XXO
XXO
O
XXXO
XO
XO
O
XXXXXO
X

15 more UR to go until I max out my manifest! :P

Modifié par Alex_Dur4and, 24 décembre 2013 - 07:12 .


#352
KalilKareem

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This might have been said before but your method for pack comparison in section 2.3 is not mathematically correct. Confidence intervals are not additive like this. What you want to do is a hypothesis test (relevant example: http://www.kean.edu/...at/07amean.html). Luckily you have a large sample size so you can safely assume the variables to be normally distributed.

#353
ComradeShepard7

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KalilKareem wrote...

This might have been said before but your method for pack comparison in section 2.3 is not mathematically correct. Confidence intervals are not additive like this. What you want to do is a hypothesis test (relevant example: http://www.kean.edu/...at/07amean.html). Luckily you have a large sample size so you can safely assume the variables to be normally distributed.


I wasn't just adding the confidence interval bounds together there. It is possible to construct confidence intervals for differences of means or population proportions (which I did here). The method used is explained in appendix B.2. The site you cited covers this www.kean.edu/~fosborne/bstat/06d2pop.html

#354
ComradeShepard7

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Evil Mastered wrote...

Just spent 1.5 million on Spectre packs.

First 6 were empty.
1 with an UR.
Next 2 were empty.
1 with an UR.
Next 3 were empty.
1 with an UR.
Next 6 were empty.
1 with an UR.
Final 2 were empty.

Total: 26 SP's 4 UR's.

Also, 7 reset cards, 5 common character cards (XP), plenty of level 3 consumables, and no level 1 or 2 consumables.

I'm almost 100% convinced that SP's, PSP's, AP's, and RP's only drop level 3 consumables, since I've yet to see a single one drop from a UR-capable pack since I started keeping count, the tiny amount of 1's and 2's I've got left are all from jumbo equipment packs.

From my (limited) experience, I'd say that SP's are a poor choice for people wanting to get promotions done, I'm not seeing enough XP cards to justify the cost of buying them for that purpose.

They're the best option for level 3 consumables and reset cards by a long shot though.


JainuJffk wrote...

30 SP - 3 x UR
6 RP - 2 x UR


Alex_Dur4and wrote...

Incredible luck today! Never been this lucky on ME3 before... I'll enjoy it while it lasts!

23 PSPs, 7 UR
X = nothing
O = contains one UR
(OO) = contains two UR

XXO
XXO
O
XXXO
XO
XO
O
XXXXXO
X

15 more UR to go until I max out my manifest! :P


Thanks for the data. I probably won't do an update this week but I will get one in next week.

#355
JainuJffk

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30 SP - 1 x UR
30 RP - 4 x UR

#356
Really Sad Panther

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97 sp
without ur-88
with ur-9

#357
Evil

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CaptStach3 made a youtube video of himself buying 21 AP's a few days ago, and he's given permission for you to use his data.
www.youtube.com/watch

Be sure to watch it with the audio on, you'll be glad you did.

#358
Pearl (rip bioware)

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100 RPs, 13 URs, 2 doubles.

Sorry it took so long to get the data to you.

Edit 12/28: 100 SPs, 6 URs.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 28 décembre 2013 - 08:41 .


#359
Shadohz

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I tracked my final UR weapon pulls a little differently. I noted how much money I had entering into the store and purchased only PSPs (except in one case).

2mill- 6URs
What I still have left
2 spitfire, 3 lancer, 1 Venom, 3BPP

1.2mill - 3 URs
What I still have left
2spitfire, 1 lancer, 3BPP

300K - 1 UR
What I still have left
1 spitfire, 1, lancer, 3BPP * I needed missiles badly lol*

800k - 2 URs
What I still have left
1 lancer, 2BPP

700K, 0 URs (BS!!!)

1 Mill - 2URs (first - 300k to get Lancer, miracle pull on last 60K to get 1 BPP by buying SP(?))
What I still have left:
1 BPP

800K got final UR after 5 pulls.
Manifest now maxed. Now I can go back to sleep.

Conclusion: To get my last 15 UR weapons it cost me roughly 6,500,000.

#360
kubista

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100 PSP - 15UR
163 RP - 24UR
25 AP - 3UR
still need 117 UR :?

#361
Alex_Dur4and

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Here is the latest but not the greatest...

46 PSPs = 5 UR, no double packs

X = nothing
0 = UR
(00) = double packs

XXXXO
XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXO
XXXXXO
XXXO
XXO

9 UR to go! Better luck next time...

#362
Pearl (rip bioware)

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100 RPs, 14 URs, 2 doubles.

About 430-440 RPs to go if the current drop rate continues.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 29 décembre 2013 - 07:38 .


#363
ComradeShepard7

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Document has been updated. I'll probably get an update in sometime towards the end of next week so long as I don't run into problems setting up the internet at my new place.

JainuJffk wrote...

30 SP - 1 x UR
30 RP - 4 x UR

rspanther wrote...

97 sp
without ur-88
with ur-9

FatherOfPearl wrote...

100 RPs, 13 URs, 2 doubles.

Sorry it took so long to get the data to you.

Edit 12/28: 100 SPs, 6 URs.

Shadohz wrote...

I tracked my final UR weapon pulls a little differently. I noted how much money I had entering into the store and purchased only PSPs (except in one case). 

2mill- 6URs
What I still have left
2 spitfire, 3 lancer, 1 Venom, 3BPP

1.2mill - 3 URs
What I still have left
2spitfire, 1 lancer, 3BPP

300K - 1 UR
What I still have left
1 spitfire, 1, lancer, 3BPP * I needed missiles badly lol*

800k - 2 URs
What I still have left
1 lancer, 2BPP

700K, 0 URs (BS!!!)

1 Mill - 2URs (first - 300k to get Lancer, miracle pull on last 60K to get 1 BPP by buying SP(?))
What I still have left:
1 BPP

800K got final UR after 5 pulls.
Manifest now maxed. Now I can go back to sleep.

Conclusion: To get my last 15 UR weapons it cost me roughly 6,500,000.

kubista wrote...

100 PSP - 15UR
163 RP - 24UR
25 AP - 3UR
still need 117 UR [smilie]http://social.bioware.com/images/forum/emoticons/uncertain.png[/smilie]

Alex_Dur4and wrote...

Here is the latest but not the greatest...

46 PSPs = 5 UR, no double packs

X = nothing
0 = UR
(00) = double packs

XXXXO
XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXO
XXXXXO
XXXO
XXO

9 UR to go! Better luck next time...

FatherOfPearl wrote...

100 RPs, 14 URs, 2 doubles.

About 430-440 RPs to go if the current drop rate continues.


Thanks for the data.

Evil Mastered wrote...

CaptStach3 made a youtube video of himself buying 21 AP's a few days ago, and he's given permission for you to use his data.
www.youtube.com/watch

Be sure to watch it with the audio on, you'll be glad you did.


I don't have time to watch youtube videos at the moment but I may get around to it sometime next week.

#364
FireRider100

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Here's my final update as I now have a maxed manifest :wizard:

106 SP = 4 ur
28 RP = 1 ur
19 AP = 2 ur
35 PSP = 6 ur

Almost 14.5 million credits to get 13 ultra rare upgrades; the last 7 of which were collector SMG upgrades. Trolly store :sick:

#365
JainuJffk

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30 SP - 2 UR
8 RP - 3UR

#366
graywolfpvw

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7 AP 1 UR
9 RP 1 UR
17 SP 1 UR

#367
JainuJffk

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30 SP - 0 UR (/cry)
30 RP - 5 UR

#368
0blique

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Finally put all of my records together: 104 PSP with 18 UR weapons.

Also, I just realized that you can't get rare weapon mods in any of the 2 guaranteed rare slots (only in the 2nd and 3rd slots), although I suspect this is common knowledge by now.

#369
ChrisLupton

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My last 50 SPs netted me 3 UR weapons, which is an improvement over my last 50 (1 UR weapon, though that run has already been submitted) but still below average. I may give PSPs a shot for a while.

I finally maxed out all my rares 36 SPs through this run. Before then I got 3 pieces of level IV equipment, which seem to be substitutes for my maxed out UR characters.

#370
Alex_Dur4and

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After 1360 hours of game play spread throughout the last 20 months, I finally maxed out my manifest!! Yay!!!

Here is my last contribution to your cause.

77 PSPs = 9 UR with no double packs

X = Nothing
O = Pack containing UR

XXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXO
XXXXXXXXXXO
XXXO
XXXXXXXXXXXO
O
XXXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXXO

Hope that this helps! Cheers!

#371
Pearl (rip bioware)

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Good day today. 100 Spectre packs, 10 URs.

#372
Evil

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Just bought some AP's.

First 5 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 3 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 6 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 4 were empty.

21 AP's, 3 UR's, 0 Doubles.

Bought a single SP with the change, no UR.

#373
JainuJffk

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30 SP - 3 UR
9 RP - 2 UR

#374
ComradeShepard7

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[quote]FireRider100 wrote...

Here's my final update as I now have a maxed manifest :wizard:

106 SP = 4 ur
28 RP = 1 ur
19 AP = 2 ur
35 PSP = 6 ur

Almost 14.5 million credits to get 13 ultra rare upgrades; the last 7 of which were collector SMG upgrades. Trolly store :sick:

[/quote]
[quote]JainuJffk wrote...

30 SP - 2 UR
8 RP - 3UR[/quote]
[quote]graywolfpvw wrote...

7 AP 1 UR
9 RP 1 UR
17 SP 1 UR[/quote]
[quote]graywolfpvw wrote...

7 AP 1 UR
9 RP 1 UR
17 SP 1 UR[/quote]
[quote]JainuJffk wrote...

30 SP - 0 UR (/cry)
30 RP - 5 UR[/quote]
[quote]0blique wrote...

Finally put all of my records together: 104 PSP with 18 UR weapons.

Also, I just realized that you can't get rare weapon mods in any of the 2 guaranteed rare slots (only in the 2nd and 3rd slots), although I suspect this is common knowledge by now.[/quote]
[quote]ChrisLupton wrote...

My last 50 SPs netted me 3 UR weapons, which is an improvement over my last 50 (1 UR weapon, though that run has already been submitted) but still below average. I may give PSPs a shot for a while.

I finally maxed out all my rares 36 SPs through this run. Before then I got 3 pieces of level IV equipment, which seem to be substitutes for my maxed out UR characters.[/quote]
[quote]Alex_Dur4and wrote...

After 1360 hours of game play spread throughout the last 20 months, I finally maxed out my manifest!! Yay!!!

Here is my last contribution to your cause. 

77 PSPs = 9 UR with no double packs

X = Nothing
O = Pack containing UR

XXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXO
XXXXXXXXXXO
XXXO
XXXXXXXXXXXO
O
XXXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXXXXXXXO
XXXXXXO

Hope that this helps! Cheers!
[/quote]
[quote]FatherOfPearl wrote...

Good day today. 100 Spectre packs, 10 URs.[/quote]
[quote]Evil Mastered wrote...

Just bought some AP's.

First 5 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 3 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 6 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 4 were empty.

21 AP's, 3 UR's, 0 Doubles.

Bought a single SP with the change, no UR.[/quote]
[quote]JainuJffk wrote...

30 SP - 3 UR
9 RP - 2 UR[/quote]

Thanks for the data. I'll be doing an update sometime tomorrow once I get my main computer hooked up to the internet.

Also, for those of you giving me PSP and AP data, unless this is data you collected a while back I would much prefer if you would collect data for SPs and RPs since these two have yet to reach the 10000 sample goal.

#375
Pearl (rip bioware)

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100 RPs, 19 URs, 2 Doubles.

Edit: PC manifest maxed.

115 RPs, 15 URs, no doubles.
115 SPs, 17 URs.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 14 janvier 2014 - 03:52 .