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Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


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#376
ComradeShepard7

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

100 RPs, 19 URs, 2 Doubles.

Edit: PC manifest maxed.

115 RPs, 15 URs, no doubles.
115 SPs, 17 URs.


Thanks for the data.

The document has been updated.

#377
Evil

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Just bought some Spectre packs.

First 5 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 2 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 6 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 1 was empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 2 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 11 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 5 were empty.

38 SP's, 6 UR's.

As a sidenote, do we know if the store determines which UR drops based on a "deck of cards" method, or a "A or B" method?

In other words, if a player had 11 UR's left to unlock, and 10 of them were the same gun, would the odds of the next UR being the missing gun be 10/11, or 50/50?

The troll store's beginning to annoy me, in case you hadn't guessed.

#378
regack

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I dropped this in an email along with detailed pack info, but I thought I'd post it here too:
290 PSPs, 36 URs
149 SPs, 14 URs

#379
ComradeShepard7

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Evil Mastered wrote...

Just bought some Spectre packs.

First 5 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 2 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 6 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 1 was empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 2 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The next 11 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 5 were empty.

38 SP's, 6 UR's.

As a sidenote, do we know if the store determines which UR drops based on a "deck of cards" method, or a "A or B" method?

In other words, if a player had 11 UR's left to unlock, and 10 of them were the same gun, would the odds of the next UR being the missing gun be 10/11, or 50/50?

The troll store's beginning to annoy me, in case you hadn't guessed.


Thanks for the data.

As far as I am aware we have no idea how the specific card is chosen.

regack wrote...

I dropped this in an email along with detailed pack info, but I thought I'd post it here too:
290 PSPs, 36 URs
149 SPs, 14 URs


Thanks. I'll probably post an update sometime next week.

#380
Pearl (rip bioware)

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bumpo

10 SPs, no URs.
3 RPs, 1 UR.

#381
ComradeShepard7

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

bumpo

10 SPs, no URs.
3 RPs, 1 UR.


Thanks for the Data.

The document has been updated.

#382
MaxCrushmore

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Okay, thought I'd update this since I just dropped 5.2 mil w/o any DLC

Rolled 4 URs in the 87 Spectre Packs .. in case anyone cares ..

Having said that, 2 months ago I went on a tear and rolled 18 URs in 26 PSP's (all DLCs were installed)

#383
Pearl (rip bioware)

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74 SPs, 4 URs.

fk you too, rng

#384
Creator Limbs

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45 spectre packs, 2 ultra rares.

mm, so good.

#385
Evil

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I just noticed that this thread here got necroed:
social.bioware.com/forum/1/topic/343/index/13527160/1

Thought it might be useful to you, if you haven't seen it already.

#386
ComradeShepard7

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Evil Mastered wrote...

I just noticed that this thread here got necroed:
social.bioware.com/forum/1/topic/343/index/13527160/1

Thought it might be useful to you, if you haven't seen it already.


That and the google spreadsheet that is liked there are actually where I got most of my initial data.

#387
ComradeShepard7

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MaxCrushmore wrote...

Okay, thought I'd update this since I just dropped 5.2 mil w/o any DLC

Rolled 4 URs in the 87 Spectre Packs .. in case anyone cares ..

Having said that, 2 months ago I went on a tear and rolled 18 URs in 26 PSP's (all DLCs were installed)

FatherOfPearl wrote...

74 SPs, 4 URs.

fk you too, rng

prostheticlimbs wrote...

45 spectre packs, 2 ultra rares.

mm, so good.


Thanks for the data.

#388
solidprice

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would be lolz to see the real results when the servers shut down.

brojo:
the real drop rate is (true drop rates). oh by the way, we are going shut down the servers soon.
u mad bsn?

#389
Pearl (rip bioware)

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25 SPs, 1 UR

At least it was a good one.

#390
attack vector

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Just discovered this thread! Awesome resource and great work!

Last night I bought 23 PSPs in a row and got 5URs.
At first I was a bit pissed, but after reading through this thread and seeing how the RNG has totally hosed some of you my return rate isn't looking too shabby. Yikes!

#391
Miniditka77

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attack vector wrote...

Just discovered this thread! Awesome resource and great work!

Last night I bought 23 PSPs in a row and got 5URs.
At first I was a bit pissed, but after reading through this thread and seeing how the RNG has totally hosed some of you my return rate isn't looking too shabby. Yikes!

Yeah, if I read the data right, the average drop rate is 1 UR per every 6-7 PSP.  So your 5 URs in 23 PSPs is actually a better than average drop rate

#392
q5tyhj

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16 SPs and 1 UR, 10 ARs and 3 UR's. Not too shabby.
*I don't know if its relevant or not, but this was with the Retaliation and Resurgence DLC's deleted.

Modifié par q5tyhj, 15 février 2014 - 10:55 .


#393
Pearl (rip bioware)

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31 SPs, 1 UR

And people wonder why my PS3 manifest isn't maxed yet.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 16 février 2014 - 04:31 .


#394
q5tyhj

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

31 SPs, 1 UR

And people wonder why my PS3 manifest isn't maxed yet.

People wonder about that? Do they not know its rigged?

#395
ComradeShepard7

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

25 SPs, 1 UR

At least it was a good one.

q5tyhj wrote...

16 SPs and 1 UR, 10 ARs and 3 UR's. Not too shabby.
*I don't know if its relevant or not, but this was with the Retaliation and Resurgence DLC's deleted.

FatherOfPearl wrote...

31 SPs, 1 UR

And people wonder why my PS3 manifest isn't maxed yet.


Thanks for the data.

attack vector wrote...

Just discovered this thread! Awesome resource and great work!

Last night I bought 23 PSPs in a row and got 5URs. 
At first I was a bit pissed, but after reading through this thread and seeing how the RNG has totally hosed some of you my return rate isn't looking too shabby. Yikes!


While I do appreciate the data, more data for psp drops doesn't do much of anything to improve our understanding of the store at this point. It would be best if you could keep records of RPs or SPs.

#396
Pearl (rip bioware)

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Alright, got some more data from the last round of speedruns, and it's significantly better.

19 SPs, 5 URs.

#397
Evil

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I just wasted a pile of credits on Spectre packs.

First 2 were empty.
1 with a UR.
The next 18 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 8 were empty.

30 SP's, 2 UR's.:sick:

I'm averaging a 7.77% drop rate since I started keeping records (22/283), I think that's about the same as everyone else is getting.

So much for 7 being lucky...

#398
q5tyhj

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

Alright, got some more data from the last round of speedruns, and it's significantly better.

19 SPs, 5 URs.

Wow, nice!

#399
JaimasOfRaxis

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This is what I was complaining about for a while. By all accounts, I'm looking at 20 to 30 million credits just to max my manifest list out, and that's after roughly five hundred hours already ****ing invested. 7 or so percent chance of getting AN ultra rare of the maybe sixty or so I have left to get? That's bull**** right there. And since all farming methodologies are unfun and ultimately pointless, I'm left with the choices of slogging by myself (since all my teammates left ages ago), running into randoms who may or may not be hackers or missile glitchers, and either way spending another few hundred hours just finishing up the inventory list.

To which I say: Bullsquid.

Did you know that in-game data exists for a guaranteed-ultra rare pack, but it simply wasn't implemented so you could buy more magic space points? If this is surprising to you, then you haven't been paying attention to anything this game's publisher has done over the past 3 years.

#400
Pearl (rip bioware)

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JaimasOfRaxis wrote...

Did you know that in-game data exists for a guaranteed-ultra rare pack, but it simply wasn't implemented so you could buy more magic space points?

Citation needed.

I have personally examined the "in-game files" and seen no indicators of such, but  if I missed anything, then please let me know.

Modifié par FatherOfPearl, 17 février 2014 - 07:17 .