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Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


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#401
JaimasOfRaxis

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Bryan Johnson wrote...

I have to say this is pretty interesting, I do love me some probability :)

Mind you I of course know the exact calculations etc, but it is interesting to see the outside looking in.

Also I will state now, I will absolutely not say what the numbers are or anything near divulging any information around the store functionality or drop rates.


You don't need to front, Bryan. 

We are men of action. Lies do not become us.

We already know that the real reason you can't tell us is the same damned reason that the guaranteed Ultra Rare pack was never implemented: that the drop rate is being kept artificially low, specifically to maximize the chances of people actually paying for magic space points and weighing what's in their wallet against their time, the same sort of mindset that brought us this exact same sodding system in multiple other games from this same publisher, and, which, not a week ago, brought us an even worse example of this nonsense.

It's the same reason that no-brainer bug and balance fixes never happened, but there was always money in the patching budget to try to fix the Missile Glitch (which is still around).

It's the same reason we've always known, all along.

People are on to this kind of fail, dear Bryan. And we of the Bioware forums know that you, personally, and Bioware itself, are not responsible for this. Rest assured, however, we know which party is. And will will not forget this insult.

Modifié par JaimasOfRaxis, 17 février 2014 - 07:30 .


#402
JaimasOfRaxis

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

Citation needed.

I have personally examined the "in-game files" and seen no indicators of such, but  if I missed anything, then please let me know.


There was multiple data sources provided by our old friend OneTrueShot, including a series of screengrabs. Mind you, OTS predicted every single release of every single multiplayer DLC and every single piece of content Multiplayer recieved, frequently managing to make several wonder just who in the hell his sources were. I do not have his screengrabs in front of me, but the data for the pack was EA Server-side. The pack itself was effectively cloned for the appreciation guaranteed Ultra-Rare pack we recieved at the tail-end of the patch cycle, further showing its existence.

I can try to dig for it later, but a lot of the images for it that were originally posted expired. They're probably still out there, mind.

Modifié par JaimasOfRaxis, 17 février 2014 - 07:44 .


#403
ore_

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Just wondering, has anyone inspected the traffic going to EA/the store? Probably encrypted but just a thought.

#404
regack

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 So I'm trying to contribute to the Reserves Pack data and I guess this is my lucky day...
10 RP, 4 URs
including one double...Posted Image

#405
zeus 171

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Dubs are always nice. I wanna drop some creds, what should I do?

#406
zeus 171

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10 RP's
1 ur paladin V

#407
ComradeShepard7

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

Alright, got some more data from the last round of speedruns, and it's significantly better.

19 SPs, 5 URs.

Evil Mastered wrote...

I just wasted a pile of credits on Spectre packs.

First 2 were empty.
1 with a UR.
The next 18 were empty.
1 with a single UR.
The final 8 were empty.

30 SP's, 2 UR's.[smilie]http://social.bioware.com/images/forum/emoticons/sick.png[/smilie]

I'm averaging a 7.77% drop rate since I started keeping records (22/283), I think that's about the same as everyone else is getting.

So much for 7 being lucky...

regack wrote...

 So I'm trying to contribute to the Reserves Pack data and I guess this is my lucky day...
10 RP, 4 URs
including one double...Posted Image

dkell147 wrote...

10 RP's
1 ur paladin V


Thanks for the data. Document has been updated (less than 300 SPs to go for that goal).

hcdwoo wrote...

Just wondering, has anyone inspected the traffic going to EA/the store? Probably encrypted but just a thought.


I doubt that would tell us anything since it is probably just pack requests being sent and then their content being returned with anything meaningful being carried out on the server.

#408
Pearl (rip bioware)

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22 SPs, 1 UR

#409
Brandinator

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 Holy wow, you're a true Mathemagician.  :wizard:

Thank you for the valuable data.  I notice that I get more UR drops when cashing out 2 - 3 million credits at one time.  Maybe it's psychological, but I keep getting 2 UR drops in consecutive packs when cashing out a whole bunch.  

#410
JheregJose

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Brandinator wrote...

 Holy wow, you're a true Mathemagician.  :wizard:

Thank you for the valuable data.  I notice that I get more UR drops when cashing out 2 - 3 million credits at one time.  Maybe it's psychological, but I keep getting 2 UR drops in consecutive packs when cashing out a whole bunch.  


I tracked 600+ SP packs, usually cashing out a million or two at a time (thanks to speed runs), and while it felt like I was getting more UR drops, my spreadsheet statistics for those 600+ packs says otherwise, as expected. Still, it's a nice feeling.

#411
Pearl (rip bioware)

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Looks like the SP data should reach the 5-digit mark by the end of the month.

In other words, soon I can start buying RPs and maybe have better luck with those (lolnope).

#412
ComradeShepard7

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FatherOfPearl wrote...

Looks like the SP data should reach the 5-digit mark by the end of the month.

In other words, soon I can start buying RPs and maybe have better luck with those (lolnope).

Its certainly looking like it. We might even finish them before I get my very last UR drop since I need to restock consumables rather than blowing it all on SPs.

#413
DragonRacer

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I bought 6 SPs tonight on PS3 and walked away with 1 UR (Collector SMG VI).

#414
zeus 171

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10 SP's
0 UR's

#415
DragonRacer

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Bought 10 more SPs on PS3 today - 1 UR (Saber IX)

#416
Lamiaaa

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it's likely that I will be getting this game for PC (have everything except all URs maxed on xbox)

I'll try to remember to log my findings for this (and my own personal curiosity)

#417
ComradeShepard7

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Isn't the new and "improved" BSN just so great?

I bought 6 SPs tonight on PS3 and walked away with 1 UR (Collector SMG VI).

10 SP's
0 UR's

Bought 10 more SPs on PS3 today - 1 UR (Saber IX)


Thanks for the data.

it's likely that I will be getting this game for PC (have everything except all URs maxed on xbox)

I'll try to remember to log my findings for this (and my own personal curiosity)


Thanks for volunteering to help.

#418
PsychoticBiotic

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5 Reserve packs, 1 UR.

 

That's just for today and I plan on buying more Reserves so I'll post the results here.



#419
zeus 171

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12 SP's
4UR's
Valiant VII
Lancer IV
Spitfire V
Lancer V

Lucky night I guess.

#420
Creator Limbs

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In the past two weeks:

6 Reserves Packs, 5 URs
12 Spectre Packs, 0 URs
9 Premium Spectre Packs, 1 UR

#421
JaimasOfRaxis

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Throw in mine, too, over the last week:
8 Spectre Packs, 1 UR (Indra IX)
 



#422
zeus 171

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Latest tally
21 SP's
5 UR's

#423
ore_

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6RPs, 7SPs, 2URs.

#424
Creator Limbs

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9 RP's, 0 UR's

1 Spectre, 0 UR's



#425
zeus 171

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8 SP's
0 UR's