641 réponses à ce sujet

[Mgamerz]

Read the thread yo.

[ComradeShepard7]

K, I had a total of something like 63010000 - 6 Jumbo Packs the store trolled me into buying because I so used to buying those since that was all I bought for the longest time. So 63010000 - 19800 = 62990200 is roughly what I spent only on only Arsenal Packs. All I got left now is 39704 cash lest after that spending spree. Here are the levels my weapons gained;

 

05+04=09 Valkyrie

03+02=05 Geth Spitfire

04=06=10 Saber

03+05=08 Particle Rifle

04+06=10 Lancer

03+07=10 Typhoon

04+05=09  Harrier

04+01=05 Talon

04+01=05 Scorpion

04+03=07 Paladin

06+04=10 Eagle

05+04=09 Wraith

03+07=10 Venom Shotgun

02+01=03 Crusader

04+04=08 Hurricane

05+01=06 Collector SMG

03+05=08 lood Pack Punisher

05+05=10 Valiant

07+03=10 Javelin

03+05=08 Indra

03+07=10 Black Widow

 

My N7 HQ stats as of now are;

 

Time - 1119H 2M 42S

Games Played - 2697

Current Credits - 39704

N7 - 1980 (#18049, Top 2%)

Challenge Points - 53010 (#695, Top 1%)

 

 

 

I'll let you guys figure out the math, but after doing all that yesterday before bedtime (took way longer then I thought), this morning I want to finally play for the first time with my newly upgraded weapons, starting with the Lancer X!  Hope this data helps others. This topic here sure helped me, as I've never had such excellent drop rates as this ever before. I'm very happy with the results. Only regret is my Geth Spitfire not gaining some healthy levels, as that was my second weapon after the Lancer I wanted leveled up (Lancer was my first to max out. Wonder if playing with only that for the two days prior to the spending spree did something? As I recall this happening twice before too. ie. Revenant was my most played in the past and first Rare maxed. Then the Lancer jumping to lvl. 4). Oh well, guess the technically superior Typhoon kind of makes up for it to tide me over?

 

 

Also wondering it total time played affects drop rates? Or the amount of Jumbo packs I've been only buying for the longest time?

 

 

I don't get how my data gets thrown out the window like that in this topic? Unless folks really don't believe the data I gave in? Because it basically says my average was every 7.5 packs I would get an UR. And yes, that's a crazy high drop rate!

 

But even from the start I was thinking maybe the store throws in some other variables? Like when was the last time you bought a pack and how many hours total you have in? (As my total game hours were very high to have an average of about lvl.4 for all URs) Why I wanted so badly to do one massive sample size from just one person doing non-stop back to back shopping at one time. And I'm very happy with my results.

 

If my theory is correct, then I would of had pretty much the same abnormal drop rate with any other 99 UR pack.

 

 

 

 

And sadly I don't think anyone will ever do a sample as the one I did. Cause nobody ever seems willing to play with all but UR weapons like I used to always play like for the most part before the big spend. That or match the crazy amount of hours I had before ready to do the big spend.

 

EDIT - my sample size is on page 22 (total of 86 URs for 62990200 in game cash)

 

 

No. That's the exact amount I spent. I got 86 URs from that amount. And you mean to tell me you can't figure out the math for this? Even without doing any math. That is a very high drop rate. And I did mark exactly every purchase I made with doubles, dry spells and blah blah blah on piece of paper while doing it in tally form. Don't know where that paper is and don't care. The gist of it is black and white. (Though is was very nice so see a visual of it all writing down, there's no way I'm going to the trouble of posting or even taking a pic it for here. Cause again, the main point is very clear. So don't know why some of you are beating around the bush at such obvious info?)

 

But whatever. I really don't care what others think. My manifest is maxed. Just thought it'd be very great to share this info for those that don't have it maxed. As I sure would of loved to of had someone share this info before I maxed my manifest.

 

 

EDIT- and no, I don't want this info stats lumped with the rest in this topic. That's not my point. I don't even believe in those stats after my own stats I've just done to begin with anymore. I now believe it all varies with everyone else differently based on who knows what factors? That's my point.

 

I don't care that you didn't format things the way I requested. What I do care about is that you said things such as "something like" and "roughly" when referring to quantities purchased which calls into question the quality of your data collection and possibly the legitimacy of your data. What is even more concerning is that what you are now claiming to be your "exact" amount spent on "only arsenal packs" doesn't even work out to a whole number of 99k packs.

[Terminator Force]

I don't care that you didn't format things the way I requested. What I do care about is that you said things such as "something like" and "roughly" when referring to quantities purchased which calls into question the quality of your data collection and possibly the legitimacy of your data. What is even more concerning is that what you are now claiming to be your "exact" amount spent on "only arsenal packs" doesn't even work out to a whole number of 99k packs.

 

Chum, I'll say it again. I don't believe in this thread at all. My test was an isolated test. And that isolated test does not come even close to matching the sample average of this topic. So why would I believe anything in this topic then? That's what I'm getting at. Some other variables must be at play here and mixing samples from multiple players is going against controlling this these other variables.

 

Even after that 63 mil spending spree, I noticed the drop rate getting even crazier still in just giving me those last few URs like the game basically hit it's peak in being upset with me for not having maxed manifest at so many hours in or something. The last two packs I bought that maxed my manifest were also double UR packs back to back. All these things left a crazy impression to me at that time, where I always thought I'd need to play way more still to max manifest.

 

 

 

But in the end BioWare will never reveal what's really going on with the store because real money is being spent on it also, is my guess.

[JRandall0308]

My test was an isolated test. And that isolated test does not come even close to matching the sample average of this topic. So why would I believe anything in this topic then? [...] mixing samples from multiple players is going against controlling this these other variables.

 

*facepalm*

 

The gambler's fallacy and the central limit theorem say hello.

[Mgamerz]

Chum, I'll say it again. I don't believe in this thread at all. My test was an isolated test. And that isolated test does not come even close to matching the sample average of this topic. So why would I believe anything in this topic then? That's what I'm getting at. Some other variables must be at play here and mixing samples from multiple players is going against controlling this these other variables.

Even after that 63 mil spending spree, I noticed the drop rate getting even crazier still in just giving me those last few URs like the game basically hit it's peak in being upset with me for not having maxed manifest at so many hours in or something. The last two packs I bought that maxed my manifest were also double UR packs back to back. All these things left a crazy impression to me at that time, where I always thought I'd need to play way more still to max manifest.



But in the end BioWare will never reveal what's really going on with the store because real money is being spent on it also, is my guess.

But the drop rate is known...

[cato potato]

But the drop rate is known...

 

But the figure for the drop-rate which you got from the actual code of the game doesn't match the experience of that one gamer on that one spending spree, therefore it's obviously false and this thread is worthless. I mean, ComradeShepard didn't even control for those unknown variables affecting the drop-rate.

 

 

Or maybe Sinful Force is just confirming for everyone yet again what a colossal moron he is.

[q5tyhj]

@sinful

Look further up the same page we're on. Mgamerz found the actual drop rates in the game files. It's listed as 7.5% for each rare slot for each pack.

In the OP, there's a link to a PDF with the data gathered that confirms that drop rate.

The OP also has the guidelines submitted data must follow to be considered for inclusion.

I'd link/copy it directly but I'm on my phone posting this, sorry. Hope this helps in some way.

 

A. What you've posted is common sense

B. Remember who you're talking to

 

A+B= its probably not going to help

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

Ah, it feels a little like the old days again.

 

I wonder what the math equivalent of a scrub is?

[Terminator Force]

Oh, I just realized the % I gave is totally wrong. It's from the perspective of how many 99 Packs bought gave me an UR. But I also remembered what knocked me on this train of thought I'm discussing in this topic right now. It was the UR drop after the big spend that really blew me away for good. Cause if I remember correctly, it only took me like 3 more days to top everything up with a max manifest. Need to check my forum posts dates to find this info for sure, as I chatted about it quite a bit during that time & before I finally left this place for another breather & other games (but first I need to play some ME3mp).

 

So to put it in perspective, I usually always played around 10 Gold matches a day, and I maxed my manifest of 40 more URs to go only 3 days later?! That's right, it literally felt like every 2 or 3rd package gave out an UR. It was that crazy. And that was were I was finally totally convinced something else entirely is going on with this store.

 

But sadly there is no way I can prove this. The closest is how vocal I was about it during that time & if someone checked my manifest while I was away during that whole time I never touched this game.

[q5tyhj]

 

So to put it in perspective, I usually always played around 10 Gold matches a day, and I maxed my manifest of 40 more URs to go only 3 days later?! That's right, it literally felt like every 2 or 3rd package gave out an UR. It was that crazy. And that was were I was finally totally convinced something else entirely is going on with this store.

Its called a small sample size. I take it you've never played cards before. 

[JRandall0308]

Not sure if we're still gathering data, but I'm obsessively tracking this for my own sick compulsion amusement.

 

Summary of what's in the spoiler box below:

 

200 PSPs, 30 URs, 1 double

50 APs, 6 URs, no doubles

40 SPs, 1 UR, no doubles

 

Spoiler

date type quantity URs doubles

9/24/2014 PSP 50 6 0

10/3/2014 SP 40 1 0

10/17/2014 PSP 50 8 0

10/24/2014 AP 50 6 0

11/11/2014 PSP 50 6 1

11/30/2014 PSP 50 10 0

 

 

Do you care about the order in which the URs were obtained? For tracking how many empty packs in between URs? Because I have that data too....

[ComradeShepard7]

Not sure if we're still gathering data, but I'm obsessively tracking this for my own sick compulsion amusement.

 

Summary of what's in the spoiler box below:

 

200 PSPs, 30 URs, 1 double

50 APs, 6 URs, no doubles

40 SPs, 1 UR, no doubles

 

Spoiler

date type quantity URs doubles

9/24/2014 PSP 50 6 0

10/3/2014 SP 40 1 0

10/17/2014 PSP 50 8 0

10/24/2014 AP 50 6 0

11/11/2014 PSP 50 6 1

11/30/2014 PSP 50 10 0

 

 

Do you care about the order in which the URs were obtained? For tracking how many empty packs in between URs? Because I have that data too....

 

I'll still take the data. I'm taking two weeks of vacation pretty soon and will probably put together an update then.

 

As for order and number of empties, I did check that for a few people who had large data sets early on but haven't added more since that was a bit of a pain to put together. You can give it to me if you want but I probably won't end up doing anything with it.

[7twozero]

7 spectre packs

 

no UR but 3 of the packs had double rares

 

Spoiler

1 - r r

2 - r

3 - r

4 - r

5 - r

6 - r r

7 - r r

 

45 AP

 

11 UR, 2 of which were in a double pack

 

Spoiler

1 - U r

2 - r r

3 - U r

4 - r r

5 - r r

6 - r r

7 - U U

8 - r r

9 - r U

10- r r

11- r r

12- U r

13- r r

14- r r

15- r r

16- r r

17- r r

18- r r

19- r r

20- r r

21- r r

22- r r

23- r r

24- U r

25- r r

26- r r

27- r U

28- U r

29- r r

30- r r

31- r r

32- r r

33- r r

34- r r

35- r r

36- r r

37- U r

38- U r

39- r r

40- r r

41- r r

42- r r

43- r r

44- r r

45- r r

 

4 PSP

 

1 UR

 

Spoiler

01- r r

02- r r

03- r r

04- U r

 

 

[Angry_Elcor]

Chum, I'll say it again. I don't believe in this thread at all. My test was an isolated test. And that isolated test does not come even close to matching the sample average of this topic. So why would I believe anything in this topic then?

 

 

Damn... this drops the bar so low, now I have to re-assess the general superiority of ME 3 MP Forumite intellect compared to the rest of the BioWare Forums.

[7twozero]

Damn... this drops the bar so low, now I have to re-assess the general superiority of ME 3 MP Forumite intellect compared to the rest of the BioWare Forums.

Chum, his post was an isolated post. And that isolated post does not come even close to matching the sample average of this forum.

[Angry_Elcor]

Chum, his post was an isolated post. And that isolated post does not come even close to matching the sample average of this forum.

 

Chum:

 

 

WE HAVE TO RAISE THE BAR BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

Great. Now I have yet another warning point because I "necro'd" a valid discussion.

 

Thanks, BioWare. Keep being classy.

[Dalakaar]

Great. Now I have yet another warning point because I "necro'd" a valid discussion.

 

Thanks, BioWare. Keep being classy.

That's crap.

 

There was an obvious reason you brought this still pertinent thread back up.

 

***

On the good side at least you got another Warning Point. There was a mod collection thread a while back too. Biomod6 really dun like me.

[Dalakaar]

Hell come to think of it this thread is stickied on the main page via/Resources Library. No one should be getting a warning point for bringing up something that's literally in the Resource Library regardless of date.

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

That's crap.

 

There was an obvious reason you brought this still pertinent thread back up.

 

***

On the good side at least you got another Warning Point. There was a mod collection thread a while back too. Biomod6 really dun like me.

 

Would you believe that I have threads stickied in the Resource Library that have been locked for similar reasons?

 

Hell come to think of it this thread is stickied on the main page via/Resources Library. No one should be getting a warning point for bringing up something that's literally in the Resource Library regardless of date.

 

Spoiler

 

Imagine if moderators got warning points for spam.

 

"Locked due to spam" is inherently off-topic and therefore against the rules. NO I WILL NOT USE MY BRAIN OR COMMON SENSE I CAN RATIONALIZE THAT IT'S AGAINST THE RULES THEREFORE I WILL MAKE AN ISSUE OF IT FOR NO REASON!

 

Sorry, for some reason the fact that I know the rules better than the moderators seems to annoy me. I can't possibly imagine why.

 

But seriously, if I had ever received a single response from a single mod-bot to any of the dozens of questions that I have PM'd them, I would be a lot less PO'd about it.

 

On topic: the reason that I posted in this thread to bring it up is because it is still relevant, and it is still being actively discussed in the forums. If the moderators don't believe me, I encourage them to actually read the posts and threads in question.

[RedJohn]

I have to say this is pretty interesting, I do love me some probability

Mind you I of course know the exact calculations etc, but it is interesting to see the outside looking in.

Also I will state now, I will absolutely not say what the numbers are or anything near divulging any information around the store functionality or drop rates.

What about now?

[Mgamerz]

Sorry for spoiling your secrecy bryan.

[Arkhne]

Maybe if I post here before it gets locked (Maybe I can even be the reason ), I can get my first warning point and we can finally know for sure which mod wants to pop my cherry

 

Sure, this is an old thread, one which people will notice has been necro'd a few times over the years. Why one person would get a warning point to bring it back into view when the topic is an ongoing and CURRENT discussion in other threads, thus providing SOLID DATA to SPECULATION, then as far as I am concerned, that mod is a jackarse and doesn't deserve the power they think they have.

 

I also believe that the store is pretty messed up, especially with the UR drop rate compared to the number of UR cards (if memory serves correctly, that's 210 UR cards, at roughly 650k/UR, or 136m credits, or 1820 Gold matches, ignoring cost of consumables to complete those matches, or 758hrs at 25mins a match, and lets be honest, no PUG match is that quick, a private match can easily be sub-20, but a sub-30 pug match is pretty much a unicorn).

 

Not to mention, quite a few of the URs are pretty crap weapons, that I wouldn't even use for the challenge points anyway. I'd rather use an Avenger than a Valkyrie, for instance.

[Alfonsedode]

 

What i dont get is that u didnt necroed it, the brillant elcor did

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

What i dont get is that u didnt necroed it, the brillant elcor did

 

I posted "Mathemagicians Assemble" because the thread had been referenced in the forums, and I wanted to bring the discussion back up. It was deleted.