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Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


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#626
7twozero

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14 arsenals, 2 ultra rares out of separate packs
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#627
nico_wolf

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my last 4 shopping results:

 

2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 0 UR

2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 0 UR

2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 2 UR

2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 1 UR

 

7,5% chance / slot, .... pfff stochastics :crying: 



#628
GI3007

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Arsenal Packs Only

 

3 separate buying sprees.

 

18 March - 4 million credits

40 Packs - 5 URs

(URs on Packs 9, 26, 36, 37, 38)

 

27 March - 4 million credits

40 Packs - 7 URs

(URs on Packs 6,12 [DoubleURs],18,21,34,37)

 

10 April - 5 million credits

50 packs - 9 URs

(URs on Packs 1,3,12,22,37,40,41,43,47).

 


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#629
Fuenf789

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my last 4 shopping results:
 
2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 0 UR
2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 0 UR
2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 2 UR
2 Mio.: 20 AP -> 1 UR
 
7,5% chance / slot, .... pfff stochastics :crying: 

The trick is also how you buy ;)

#630
Alfonsedode

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Guys, u might wanna know real probs values are known now, and comradeshep is not gonna do any update anymore ... anyway.

#631
nico_wolf

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The trick is also how you buy ;)

 

What? Usually I buy Arsenal Packs in row.

Reserve Packs only on Full Moon.

 

Before entering the store, I sacrifice a goat. Paint my face with it's blood and pray to the rnGod.

 

Do you have a better trick?

 

Guys, u might wanna know real probs values are known now, and comradeshep is not gonna do any update anymore ... anyway.

 

Yeah I now, ... I just what to share my frustration.


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#632
Fuenf789

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What? Usually I buy Arsenal Packs in row.
Reserve Packs only on Full Moon.
 
Before entering the store, I sacrifice a goat. Paint my face with it's blood and pray to the rnGod.
 
Do you have a better trick?
 

 
Yeah I now, ... I just what to share my frustration.


Yes, you have described the standard BSN approach. The other one requires reading, so not applicable.
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#633
nico_wolf

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Yes, you have described the standard BSN approach. The other one requires reading, so not applicable.

 

Reading, ... no way.

Oh wait, there is a link in your signature, ... lets see if I can find your trick here: http://forum.bioware.../#entry19898617



#634
Fuenf789

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Arsenal Packs Only
 
3 separate buying sprees.
 
18 March - 4 million credits
40 Packs - 5 URs
(URs on Packs 9, 26, 36, 37, 38)
 
27 March - 4 million credits
40 Packs - 7 URs
(URs on Packs 6,12 [DoubleURs],18,21,34,37)
 
10 April - 5 million credits
50 packs - 9 URs
(URs on Packs 1,3,12,22,37,40,41,43,47).


Reading, ... no way.
Oh wait, there is a link in your signature, ... lets see if I can find your trick here: http://forum.bioware.../#entry19898617


...and... ? any learnings. Let's take GI3007 posts as example

 

1) 40 Packs /6.9565=  5.75 UR. GI3007 got 5. Spot on. (Rounding down)

 

2) 40 Packs /6.9565 = 5.75 UR. GI3007 got 7. Accounting for that stray double. (Also pretty close when rounding up)

 

3) 50 /6.9565=  7.19 UR. GI3007 got 9. Two over the norm.

 

In total 130 AP / 6,9565 predicts ca 19 UR. GI3007 got 21. That's pretty close prediction for 130 purchases - if he buys more it will converge to factor 6.9565... Long live the binomial and Pascal's triangle.



#635
frank_is_crank

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...and... ? any learnings. Let's take GI3007 posts as example

 

1) 40 Packs /6.9565=  5.75 UR. GI3007 got 5. Spot on. (Rounding down)

 

2) 40 Packs /6.9565 = 5.75 UR. GI3007 got 7. Accounting for that stray double. (Also pretty close when rounding up)

 

3) 50 /6.9565=  7.19 UR. GI3007 got 9. Two over the norm.

 

In total 130 AP / 6,9565 predicts ca 19 UR. GI3007 got 21. That's pretty close prediction for 130 purchases - if he buys more it will converge to factor 6.9565... Long live the binomial and Pascal's triangle.

 

 

giphy.gif

 

Too long didn't ... look, a bird.


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#636
nico_wolf

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...and... ? any learnings.

 

 

yes,...

 

  • you have too much time :ph34r:
  • I'm doing it right (more or less) and...
  • I have a non ending streak of bad luck!

But I did enjoy the Myth Buster Part. Great Collection and some enlightenment.

Seems that I still have to play a couple of games. I have 550h on my timer, only.


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#637
Fuenf789

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yes,...
 

  • you have too much time :ph34r:
  • I'm doing it right (more or less) and...
  • I have a non ending streak of bad luck!
But I did enjoy the Myth Buster Part. Great Collection and some enlightenment.
Seems that I still have to play a couple of games. I have 550h on my timer, only.

Hehe- there was

  • so much mystery on the rng store,
  • constantly changing assumptions with ninja edits in this specific thread and by the OP and
  • contradictary opinions on BSN that I decided that the price of wasting time by having no method was much higher than working out the math on the airport.

That have proven to be a good investment for me personally and confirmed some outcomes from members that also followed some structure in their RNG store purchases and pointed some errors of those those that had manual errors

 

Some BSN'ers still prefers some random approach. Ftw. Having no/changing approach requires at least 400 hours more (worked out with binary helix example) some time ago. So in the end I save myself time and frustration.

You may be the only person that ever read the mythbuster section... B)


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#638
7twozero

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10 arsenals, 5 ultra rares! Huzzah!

#639
niniendowarrior

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Out of curiosity, does anyone know the percentage increase of types of drop when comparing Arsenal Pack, Reserve Pack, and Premium Spectre Pack?

I mean, PSP has a certain drop rate and all we know is that AP has a higher chance of weapon drop and RP has a higher chance of character drop.  Was there any study by how much the chance increase was?



#640
Mgamerz

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http://me3tweaks.com/store_catalog



#641
LoonySpectre

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But I did enjoy the Myth Buster Part. 

Read it as Myth Buster Pack at the first glance. Probably wonderful exploding things inside! And 100% tested by Mgamerz.



#642
The_Nightman_Cometh

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You gotta catch them all.