641 réponses à ce sujet

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

I remember seeing a table on the (completely reliable and irrefutable) internet that had the Spectre Pack rare slot as a 3% chance for a UR, while the Premium Spectre Pack rare slots showed a 5% chance for a UR. Dunno where those numbers came from.

But I can say with absolute anecdotal certainty that Arsenal Packs are the best buy, because one of them just gave me an Eagle upgrade.

[Malanek]

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

I remember seeing a table on the (completely reliable and irrefutable) internet that had the Spectre Pack rare slot as a 3% chance for a UR, while the Premium Spectre Pack rare slots showed a 5% chance for a UR. Dunno where those numbers came from.

But I can say with absolute anecdotal certainty that Arsenal Packs are the best buy, because one of them just gave me an Eagle upgrade.

I think they are both higher than that, at least now. I'm convinced the drop rate increased since the launch of the game. My guess would be that the UR drop rate for Arsenal packs was around 15%.

[Feelitmon]

capn233 wrote...

Simba501 wrote...

This is legit, and it reflects my anecdotal evidence for APs being the best buy.

I know.  If only someone could post the store logic which would prove it...

Also I have some quarter flipping data that I would like to share:

1998 and 2002 edition quarters.

1998 flipped 40 times, 26 Heads (0.65), 14 Tails (0.35)

2002 flipped 30 times, 16 Heads (0.53), 14 Tails (0.47)

If you want to get tails you should flip the 2002 quarter.

Oh my gosh, I didn't realize people wouldn't see you were joking! AND that you were making a specific point about sample sizes. My Sagan .gif was posted out of appreciation, I assure you. 

[Pearl (rip bioware)]

dercas1979 wrote...

My question, weapons aside, is:

Will maxing out my consumable gear (IE cyclonic mods....etc) make me always get level 3 or 4 consumables? And after that, with all consumables maxed, what the heck will the game have left to give me except URs?

It is impossible to "max" consumable gear, as the game will continue to give you tems past 255, however you will lose all the excess gear when you quit the game. And no, the UR drop rate is not affected by anything.

[Tantum Dic Verbo]

Malanek999 wrote...

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

I remember seeing a table on the (completely reliable and irrefutable) internet that had the Spectre Pack rare slot as a 3% chance for a UR, while the Premium Spectre Pack rare slots showed a 5% chance for a UR. Dunno where those numbers came from.

But I can say with absolute anecdotal certainty that Arsenal Packs are the best buy, because one of them just gave me an Eagle upgrade.

I think they are both higher than that, at least now. I'm convinced the drop rate increased since the launch of the game. My guess would be that the UR drop rate for Arsenal packs was around 15%.

Well, that would give all the high-level packs pretty close to a 10% chance of having at least one UR.  Whether or not the sample data supports that, I cannot say.

[ComradeShepard7]

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

Malanek999 wrote...

Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

I remember seeing a table on the (completely reliable and irrefutable) internet that had the Spectre Pack rare slot as a 3% chance for a UR, while the Premium Spectre Pack rare slots showed a 5% chance for a UR. Dunno where those numbers came from.

But I can say with absolute anecdotal certainty that Arsenal Packs are the best buy, because one of them just gave me an Eagle upgrade.

I think they are both higher than that, at least now. I'm convinced the drop rate increased since the launch of the game. My guess would be that the UR drop rate for Arsenal packs was around 15%.

Well, that would give all the high-level packs pretty close to a 10% chance of having at least one UR.  Whether or not the sample data supports that, I cannot say.

From the data we have its higher than 10% for the high level packs. Also, all the data in the google doc comes from the assumption that the two slots that can drop URs in those packs are independent of one another and I am in the process of going through the stuff I have from back when I took stats to remember a method for testing this.

[i hate you all]

I have an excel sheet with raw data. Its constantly being updated but I can send you what I have now.Let me know where to send it.

[ComradeShepard7]

i hate you all wrote...

I have an excel sheet with raw data. Its constantly being updated but I can send you what I have now.Let me know where to send it.

My email address is in the original post and the google doc.

[i hate you all]

Will do when I get home.

[ComradeShepard7]

The data has been updated once again. I've also added a visual comparison of the confidence intervals as well as a section talking about what confidence intervals are for those of you who aren't familiar with them. I was planning on adding the info about independence between the two slots that can drop URs in PSPs, APs and RPs today but I will need more time to look at that.

More data collection is still needed so if you haven't maxed your manifest yet please contact me so we can work out how you can chip in.

[Jelena Jankovic]

Had better luck with reserve packs vs arsenal

my last few UR's all dropped out of Spectre packs (yes I am one of those maxed manifest people)

[ComradeShepard7]

wngmv helped me sort out the independence testing and the results have been added to the write up. From the results it is safe to say that UR weapon drops for the two slots are independently calculated but there is uncertainty when UR character drops are considered as well. Turns out things were wrong, and have now been corrected.

I also received a bit more data from people so the confidence intervals have also been updated.

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 09 octobre 2013 - 11:18 .

[ComradeShepard7]

oops

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 09 octobre 2013 - 05:05 .

[Sailears]

A question - I'm making notes on SP purchases, as I've restricted myself to only buy those (and the occasional jumbo if low on consumables) - how many SPs should I record data on?

Only started last week, so just 41 so far with 4 URs.

[ComradeShepard7]

Curunen wrote...

A question - I'm making notes on SP purchases, as I've restricted myself to only buy those (and the occasional jumbo if low on consumables) - how many SPs should I record data on?

Only started last week, so just 41 so far with 4 URs.

As many as you can/want to. The more data we have the better.

[Sailears]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

Curunen wrote...

A question - I'm making notes on SP purchases, as I've restricted myself to only buy those (and the occasional jumbo if low on consumables) - how many SPs should I record data on?

Only started last week, so just 41 so far with 4 URs.

As many as you can/want to. The more data we have the better.

Sure, will keep going.

[chcknwng]

My brain farted....Should not work in the morning....It seems double UR drops are extremely rare...

[Zso_Zso]

I'm still about 90 URs from maxing and would be happy to collect and provide more data. Please, let me know what raw data do you need recorded and what packs should I focus on.

[chcknwng]

Zso_Zso wrote...

I'm still about 90 URs from maxing and would be happy to collect and provide more data. Please, let me know what raw data do you need recorded and what packs should I focus on.

Right now it seems AP gives you the best bang for your buck so if suggest you focus on that. Also I'd like to narrow the CI for APVfor a bit. Please record how many URs you got for each pack. That'd be all we need.

[ComradeShepard7]

Alright, if you read anything I said about slot independence before now you should forget that. wngmv took another look at it and it turns out the previous stuff was wrong. The document has been updated with corrected information. I've also added point estimates for the drop rates but you should not use these to say one pack is better than another UNLESS there is no overlap in the confidence intervals for the packs.

[Alpha 1 Omega]

Here is a thinker does all this drop rate data also apply to the 360 and ps3??

[chcknwng]

Alpha 1 Omega wrote...

Here is a thinker does all this drop rate data also apply to the 360 and ps3??

I don't see why not. In fact, I think it would be a really bad move if it doesn't.

[gaoshouye]

Have 16M credit in my account with 15 UR left , I would like to help you with this work.

[ComradeShepard7]

gaoshouye wrote...

Have 16M credit in my account with 15 UR left , I would like to help you with this work.

We still need more data for spectre, arsenal and reserves packs so choose any of those. When you spend your credits, keep track of how many packs you buy, how many UR drops you get, and how many, if any, double UR packs you get. Once you have data just send it to comradeshepard7@gmail.com

[gaoshouye]

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

gaoshouye wrote...

Have 16M credit in my account with 15 UR left , I would like to help you with this work.

We still need more data for spectre, arsenal and reserves packs so choose any of those. When you spend your credits, keep track of how many packs you buy, how many UR drops you get, and how many, if any, double UR packs you get. Once you have data just send it to comradeshepard7@gmail.com

The results have been sent to you, got all 15 URs with 7M credits. Hope this help.