Aller au contenu

Photo

Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


641 réponses à ce sujet

#76
xxNLCxx

xxNLCxx
  • Members
  • 24 messages
Spent 6 mil credits on arsenal packs the other day and received. 7x lancer. 3x blood pack pun
2x spitfire. 3x venom. 1x eagel.  1x hurricane

Of the 60 picks one had a double ur a venom and a blood pack pun....

Modifié par xxNLCxx, 10 octobre 2013 - 11:16 .


#77
ED209-XL

ED209-XL
  • Members
  • 109 messages
I am keeping a track of my purchases since the 2nd of Oct. 52 SP so far.

#78
The One True Crash

The One True Crash
  • Members
  • 1 004 messages
Ok, so I started logging the last 105 URs of my manifest which I finished in August. 580 psps/104 urs. Hope this can help a bit.

#79
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

CrashUrStox wrote...

Ok, so I started logging the last 105 URs of my manifest which I finished in August. 580 psps/104 urs. Hope this can help a bit.


That helps. Did you have any packs that dropped double URs?

#80
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

xxNLCxx wrote...

Spent 6 mil credits on arsenal packs the other day and received. 7x lancer. 3x blood pack pun
2x spitfire. 3x venom. 1x eagel.  1x hurricane

Of the 60 picks one had a double ur a venom and a blood pack pun....


Thanks for the data.

#81
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

ED209-XL wrote...

I am keeping a track of my purchases since the 2nd of Oct. 52 SP so far.


Excellent. Could you send me the data at some point?

#82
The One True Crash

The One True Crash
  • Members
  • 1 004 messages

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

CrashUrStox wrote...

Ok, so I started logging the last 105 URs of my manifest which I finished in August. 580 psps/104 urs. Hope this can help a bit.


That helps. Did you have any packs that dropped double URs?


yup, 4 of them.

#83
dercas1979

dercas1979
  • Members
  • 6 messages
 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.

#84
DocDAM

DocDAM
  • Members
  • 183 messages
Great work Comrade!

I've sent him my #'s and, after a lengthy discussion, I think we are now agreeing the UR slots are independent (wait for his verification). 

My numbers (all wpns here, sent him the chars as well):

XBOX:
AP: 262 packs, 44 UR's, including two dual-UR's
Not included here are the small count of other packs, or the 100's I didn't log before Jan (and a few I forgot to log after which gave me 5 UR's and my first ever double)

PC:
73 AP: 9 UR's
21 RP: 2 UR's
192 SP: 14 UR's

Seems mine are ALL below the point estimates  :(

#85
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

dercas1979 wrote...

 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.


Thanks for the data. In the future the only things I need are the total number of packs of a certain type purchased, the total number of URs you get, and the number of packs that contained double drops. I am updating the streak data one last time for this week's update but after that I don't think I'll be doing it again since it is kind of a pain to do.

Also, is it correct for me to assume that these are all UR weapon drops?

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 13 octobre 2013 - 07:25 .


#86
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

DocDAM wrote...

Great work Comrade!

I've sent him my #'s and, after a lengthy discussion, I think we are now agreeing the UR slots are independent (wait for his verification). 

My numbers (all wpns here, sent him the chars as well):

XBOX:
AP: 262 packs, 44 UR's, including two dual-UR's
Not included here are the small count of other packs, or the 100's I didn't log before Jan (and a few I forgot to log after which gave me 5 UR's and my first ever double)

PC:
73 AP: 9 UR's
21 RP: 2 UR's
192 SP: 14 UR's

Seems mine are ALL below the point estimates  :(


I haven't gotten any emails about the independence stuff I sent both you and wngmv so updating the independence stuff may have to wait a while. Also, the numbers you list here don't quite match the ones you've emailed me so which ones are correct?

#87
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages
In addition to the usual update of the data today, there has been some extra stuff as well:
  • Linked document is now a pdf rather than a google doc as LaTeX gives a lot better formatting for figures and tables than a published google doc.
  • The document now provides a lot more detail, including explanations of the math behind the project, which will hopefully help people understand the results a bit better.
  • wngmv, DocDAM and I have now reached a consensus that the slots are independent. If you read anything about slot independence that was posted here before I suggest you forget it and take a look at the new stuff as there were errors in the previous versions.

Modifié par ComradeShepard7, 15 octobre 2013 - 05:24 .


#88
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages
The document has been updated with some more data and a few corrections to the independence testing sections.

#89
Tantum Dic Verbo

Tantum Dic Verbo
  • Members
  • 3 221 messages
I haven't been taking notes, but I think my recent experiences with Arsenal Packs suggest that they have the same drop rate as Veteran Packs. I'll try to remember to keep a list.

#90
CabalenGamer_01

CabalenGamer_01
  • Members
  • 19 messages
I used to keep a record of my URs, but I've pretty much given up trying to max my manifest. Just waiting for batman to come out and it's good riddance to me3 mp. Never gonna buy another bioware game again in my life. Basing the unlock system of weapons on pure luck is just stupid. Whatever happened to hard work being rewarded, bioware?.. Anyway, I'll try to look for my UR records if I still have it.

But for what it's worth, I did a last try spending spree a few weeks ago, though I didn't keep a detailed record. It's 89 PSPs, and I got 7 UR weapons from those (I have everything except max UR weapons). I don't know the last time I got a double UR, it was ages ago, can't even remember what I got.. Lately I have been spending 1-2M every night, and get 1 UR every other night or two, so maybe 3-4 URs every week. Hope it helps. cheers :-)

#91
Pearl (rip bioware)

Pearl (rip bioware)
  • Members
  • 7 302 messages
Hey, I'm probably going to start a new manifest in the coming week or so, which packs do you need the most data on?

#92
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

FatherOfPearl wrote...

Hey, I'm probably going to start a new manifest in the coming week or so, which packs do you need the most data on?


Reserves packs and spectre packs.

#93
Sailears

Sailears
  • Members
  • 7 077 messages
Thought I'd at least share what I've got so far with SPs.

Since recording I've only been buying SPs, along with a handful of JEPs. Unfortunately I didn't record the pack number for the first 4 URs, but will be continuing to do so. I still have 106 to unlock so will keep going with SPs as long as possible.

# of SP: 128

# of UR: 9

Order of URs unlocked, by date:
Talon X
Saber VIII
BPP I
Indra V at #36
Geth Spitfire II at #50
Geth Spitfire III at #55
Scorpion Pistol IX at #89
Black Widow X at #116
BPP II at #127

#94
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

Curunen wrote...

Thought I'd at least share what I've got so far with SPs.

Since recording I've only been buying SPs, along with a handful of JEPs. Unfortunately I didn't record the pack number for the first 4 URs, but will be continuing to do so. I still have 106 to unlock so will keep going with SPs as long as possible.

# of SP: 128

# of UR: 9

Order of URs unlocked, by date:
Talon X
Saber VIII
BPP I
Indra V at #36
Geth Spitfire II at #50
Geth Spitfire III at #55
Scorpion Pistol IX at #89
Black Widow X at #116
BPP II at #127


Thanks for the data. The exact pack where you get UR drops isn't all that important since I only use that for making the histograms of the drop patterns so no need to worry about not having it.

#95
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages
The document with the results has been updated. There hasn't been much of a change in the numbers since last week.

If you have any manifests that have yet to be maxed I would really appreciate it if you could keep records of your store purchases.

#96
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages
The document has been updated with some additional data I received today.

#97
ComradeShepard7

ComradeShepard7
  • Members
  • 1 261 messages

CabalenGamer_01 wrote...

I used to keep a record of my URs, but I've pretty much given up trying to max my manifest. Just waiting for batman to come out and it's good riddance to me3 mp. Never gonna buy another bioware game again in my life. Basing the unlock system of weapons on pure luck is just stupid. Whatever happened to hard work being rewarded, bioware?.. Anyway, I'll try to look for my UR records if I still have it.

But for what it's worth, I did a last try spending spree a few weeks ago, though I didn't keep a detailed record. It's 89 PSPs, and I got 7 UR weapons from those (I have everything except max UR weapons). I don't know the last time I got a double UR, it was ages ago, can't even remember what I got.. Lately I have been spending 1-2M every night, and get 1 UR every other night or two, so maybe 3-4 URs every week. Hope it helps. cheers :-)


Didn't notice this earlier but thanks for the data.

#98
graywolfpvw

graywolfpvw
  • Members
  • 84 messages
53 SP 1UR
39 SP 1UR
I love the store.

#99
LePetitRobot

LePetitRobot
  • Members
  • 717 messages
Data from my last modest spending spree:
6 PSP - 1 UR
4 AP - 0 UR
4 RP - 0 UR

#100
graywolfpvw

graywolfpvw
  • Members
  • 84 messages
7 SP 1 UR
1 SP 1 UR
3 SP 1 UR
This was after the above. Will wait till the weekend and spend a bunch.