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Updated Ultra Rare Drop Rate Data | All sample size goals reached | Will still do occasional updates | Links fixed 2015 April 8


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#101
dercas1979

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ComradeShepard7 wrote...

dercas1979 wrote...

 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.


Thanks for the data. In the future the only things I need are the total number of packs of a certain type purchased, the total number of URs you get, and the number of packs that contained double drops. I am updating the streak data one last time for this week's update but after that I don't think I'll be doing it again since it is kind of a pain to do.

Also, is it correct for me to assume that these are all UR weapon drops?



You read it from left to right as I made purchases. IE

If: 9.0.0.7.0*0.5    

Then: I bought nine packs with no UR, on the tenth one I got an UR, eleventh UR, then 7 more without then a double in one pack and then 5 more without.

#102
ComradeShepard7

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dercas1979 wrote...

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

dercas1979 wrote...

 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.


Thanks for the data. In the future the only things I need are the total number of packs of a certain type purchased, the total number of URs you get, and the number of packs that contained double drops. I am updating the streak data one last time for this week's update but after that I don't think I'll be doing it again since it is kind of a pain to do.

Also, is it correct for me to assume that these are all UR weapon drops?



You read it from left to right as I made purchases. IE

If: 9.0.0.7.0*0.5    

Then: I bought nine packs with no UR, on the tenth one I got an UR, eleventh UR, then 7 more without then a double in one pack and then 5 more without.


I figured out your data system just fine I was just wondering if all the URs here are weapons or were some of them UR characters?

#103
ComradeShepard7

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I've updated the document once again. If I get more data today and tomorrow I will do more updates and I will be adding some additional content once some stuff gets sorted out.

#104
Lacika2000

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Well, for me it is extremely painful to see all these high drop rates.

My drop rate is below 1 UR per million credits, mostly on AR for the last 20+ million spent, and basically since the last DLC consistently. With a single exception, I have never had an UR drop within 5 ARs since the summer. I remember looking at Invaderone's credit spending video where he does not get the amount of UR's he is used to. Well, putting all conspiracy theories to the side, welcome to my world. :?

So I have settled to the sad and utterly frustrating feeling of being massively cheated and trolled by RNG store and for not going to have a complete manifest either, since I still have more than 70 to go, and even on playing UUPs, I need more than 10 games to get a million credits due to generic PUG quality nowadays. Which means more than 700 hours above my current 718 hours of gameplay. Which time I don't have: this is not THAT good a game, to be honest.

Well, it is a sad MP finish to the sad SP ending.

THE CAKE IS A LIE...

Modifié par Lacika2000, 29 octobre 2013 - 07:42 .


#105
Spencercl

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The RNG can come around, I have gotten 8 UR in the last 8 days, roughly one out of every 3 PSPs. I am sure that my rate will drop down to the normal 1 UR every month or so soon, but it has been a great ride.

#106
Tantum Dic Verbo

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25 Arsenal Packs: 3UR's, no doubles.

Need more people carry me through Bronze for moar packs.

#107
jaganshihieiyyh

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https://docs.google....drive_web#gid=9

I have recorded all my packs since the beginning of the year in this spreadsheet. It is updated whenever I play, so if you incorporate it into your project, make sure to remember what the last cell used was. I'll focus on Spectre Packs for awhile to regen my rare consumables. However, in my experience, they suck for URs.

#108
ComradeShepard7

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The document has been updated again.

jaganshihieiyyh wrote...

https://docs.google....drive_web#gid=9

I have recorded all my packs since the beginning of the year in this spreadsheet. It is updated whenever I play, so if you incorporate it into your project, make sure to remember what the last cell used was. I'll focus on Spectre Packs for awhile to regen my rare consumables. However, in my experience, they suck for URs.


I'll remember to check your spreadsheet out when I do the weekly updates.

#109
ComradeShepard7

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Some more data has been added, and the question of UR characters taking the place of UR weapon drops has been addressed.

#110
The_Bastage

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I just bought 30 arsenal packs (3mil) and got Venom+2 and Lancer+1. No doubles.

I only have 12 UR points left but I have to say, 1 UR per million is pretty damn discouraging.

RNG will be random, but damn son...

#111
Lacika2000

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After spending 2.2 million on Arsenal packs, finally I had a UR drop (single). Talk about discouraging...

#112
dercas1979

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ComradeShepard7 wrote...

dercas1979 wrote...

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

dercas1979 wrote...

 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.


Thanks for the data. In the future the only things I need are the total number of packs of a certain type purchased, the total number of URs you get, and the number of packs that contained double drops. I am updating the streak data one last time for this week's update but after that I don't think I'll be doing it again since it is kind of a pain to do.

Also, is it correct for me to assume that these are all UR weapon drops?



You read it from left to right as I made purchases. IE

If: 9.0.0.7.0*0.5    

Then: I bought nine packs with no UR, on the tenth one I got an UR, eleventh UR, then 7 more without then a double in one pack and then 5 more without.


I figured out your data system just fine I was just wondering if all the URs here are weapons or were some of them UR characters?


All Weapons.  I got the UR chars really fast right as they were released..... for some reason......

#113
dercas1979

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Lacika2000 wrote...

Well, for me it is extremely painful to see all these high drop rates.

My drop rate is below 1 UR per million credits, mostly on AR for the last 20+ million spent, and basically since the last DLC consistently. With a single exception, I have never had an UR drop within 5 ARs since the summer. I remember looking at Invaderone's credit spending video where he does not get the amount of UR's he is used to. Well, putting all conspiracy theories to the side, welcome to my world. :?

So I have settled to the sad and utterly frustrating feeling of being massively cheated and trolled by RNG store and for not going to have a complete manifest either, since I still have more than 70 to go, and even on playing UUPs, I need more than 10 games to get a million credits due to generic PUG quality nowadays. Which means more than 700 hours above my current 718 hours of gameplay. Which time I don't have: this is not THAT good a game, to be honest.

Well, it is a sad MP finish to the sad SP ending.

THE CAKE IS A LIE...



First of all....if you look at my data a few days back, you should probably stop buying the AP's......  Buy Reserve Packs, trust me.  Look at my data.

#114
dercas1979

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dercas1979 wrote...

 I've been keeping track of my purchases  and they are as follows.  I hope they help.

The numbers are the number of packs without an UR. The 0's indicate a pack with an UR and '0*0 shows that I got two URs in the same pack.  I started out buying Arsenal Packs but gave up when the numbers came out like this:

0, 3, 0, 26, 0, 27

PSP looked like this:

17. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 0. 11. 0. 7. 0. 0. 5. 0. 6. 0. 1. 0. 0. 16. 0. 13. 0. 4. 0. 0. 6. 0. 9. 0. 5. 0. 9. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 7. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 4. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 5. 0. 0. 0. 6. 0. 13. 0. 

Reserve Packs:

0. 0. 12. 0. 2. 0. 6. 0*0. 8. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 7. 0. 6. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 5. 0. 7. 0. 3. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 6. 0. 3. 0. 8. 0. 17. 0. 4. 0. 3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 1. 0. 9. 0. 0. 7. 0*0. 5. 0. 2. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 18. 0. 4. 0. 0. 24. 0. 3. 0. 4. 0. 2. 0. 4. 0. 7. 0. 1. 0. 3. 0. 5. 0. 1. 0. 0. 13. 0. 0. 2. 0. 3. 0. 17. 0. 7. 0. 17. 0. 1. 0. 

Any questions post back here I guess. If you're working out percentages, make sure to include the zero's since the are counted as purchasing a pack also.



Also, I guess if you wanted to look at this from a money perspective, Every number that I have listed above corresponds to hundreds of thousands of credits......IE 17 = 1,700,000 creds

#115
The_Bastage

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Buy reserve packs now? I thought APs had a better rate of URs.

#116
ComradeShepard7

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The_Bastage wrote...

Buy reserve packs now? I thought APs had a better rate of URs.


Due to the uncertainty of the estimates we cannot currently say either one is better than the other.

#117
ComradeShepard7

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Tantum Dic Verbo wrote...

25 Arsenal Packs: 3UR's, no doubles.

Need more people carry me through Bronze for moar packs.

The_Bastage wrote...

I just bought 30 arsenal packs (3mil) and got Venom+2 and Lancer+1. No doubles.

I only have 12 UR points left but I have to say, 1 UR per million is pretty damn discouraging.

RNG will be random, but damn son...

Lacika2000 wrote...

After spending 2.2 million on Arsenal packs, finally I had a UR drop (single). Talk about discouraging...


Thank you all for the data.

#118
ComradeShepard7

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Spencercl wrote...

The RNG can come around, I have gotten 8 UR in the last 8 days, roughly one out of every 3 PSPs. I am sure that my rate will drop down to the normal 1 UR every month or so soon, but it has been a great ride.


Do you know exactly how many PSPs you bought when you got those 8 URs?

#119
TheTechnoTurian

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58 Spectre Packs
5 URs ... can't complain.

#120
The_Bastage

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1.5 million on reserves. 1 lancer

This is beginning to ****** me the **** off...

#121
silencekills

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I ain't no "sciency" type, but I done got 5 Ultra Rares (Talon 3, Blood Pack SMG 1, Saber 1, Valiant 9, and the Crusader 5) out of the 14 Arsenal Pack I've bought since I started playing again, which was about one and a half weeks ago.

Those are the only packs I bought at all. I figure Tykhe's just been extra generous.

Apparently I need to step up my game too. Every lobby i've been in has people with really high leveled URs. I saw somebody with a maxed Harrier and Hurricane and choked.

#122
ComradeShepard7

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The_Bastage wrote...

1.5 million on reserves. 1 lancer

This is beginning to ****** me the **** off...


It happens to all of us.

#123
ComradeShepard7

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silencekills wrote...

I ain't no "sciency" type, but I done got 5 Ultra Rares (Talon 3, Blood Pack SMG 1, Saber 1, Valiant 9, and the Crusader 5) out of the 14 Arsenal Pack I've bought since I started playing again, which was about one and a half weeks ago.

Those are the only packs I bought at all. I figure Tykhe's just been extra generous.

Apparently I need to step up my game too. Every lobby i've been in has people with really high leveled URs. I saw somebody with a maxed Harrier and Hurricane and choked.


Seems you have been quite lucky with the store recently. Were any of those packs double UR drops?

#124
silencekills

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ComradeShepard7 wrote...

silencekills wrote...

I ain't no "sciency" type, but I done got 5 Ultra Rares (Talon 3, Blood Pack SMG 1, Saber 1, Valiant 9, and the Crusader 5) out of the 14 Arsenal Pack I've bought since I started playing again, which was about one and a half weeks ago.

Those are the only packs I bought at all. I figure Tykhe's just been extra generous.

Apparently I need to step up my game too. Every lobby i've been in has people with really high leveled URs. I saw somebody with a maxed Harrier and Hurricane and choked.


Seems you have been quite lucky with the store recently. Were any of those packs double UR drops?


Nope. Closest was two back to back which were the only two I actually bought in one sitting instead of just buying them as I got the credits.

Unless Respec Cards are now Ultra Rares like i've just heard in which case there was one, but I could've sworn it was in a common slot.

#125
ComradeShepard7

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silencekills wrote...

ComradeShepard7 wrote...

silencekills wrote...

I ain't no "sciency" type, but I done got 5 Ultra Rares (Talon 3, Blood Pack SMG 1, Saber 1, Valiant 9, and the Crusader 5) out of the 14 Arsenal Pack I've bought since I started playing again, which was about one and a half weeks ago.

Those are the only packs I bought at all. I figure Tykhe's just been extra generous.

Apparently I need to step up my game too. Every lobby i've been in has people with really high leveled URs. I saw somebody with a maxed Harrier and Hurricane and choked.


Seems you have been quite lucky with the store recently. Were any of those packs double UR drops?


Nope. Closest was two back to back which were the only two I actually bought in one sitting instead of just buying them as I got the credits.

Unless Respec Cards are now Ultra Rares like i've just heard in which case there was one, but I could've sworn it was in a common slot.


Respec cards are not URs (they are uncommons) but I don't believe I've ever gotten one from a 99k pack. They seem to drop fairly regularly from SPs though.