Althernai wrote...
Here is what David Gaider actually said on the subject:Link.The darkspawn forces were getting stronger with each engagement.
Loghain knew that, and knew that it wasn't going to keep being so easy.
I would say that he knew what might happen the minute Cailan made his
strategy clear: rely on the Grey Wardens to win the day. In my mind,
Loghain still wasn't certain that
he would walk away -- and if he thought that riding into the valley
could have won the battle, he probably would have done so. Whether his
belief that this couldn't happen was the truth or just his twisted
perception of it is something you can decide for yourself. Certainly
the darkspawn horde at the last battle was far bigger than anyone had
anticipated.
The decision, I think, was made at the moment
Loghain saw the beacon lit. He prepared for the possibility, as he
prepared for everything, but I don't think he decided to go through
with it until right then.
So Loghain did not believe that he could win, but this does not mean Ostagar could not have been won (the latter is left up to the player). To be honest, given all of the things Loghain did in anticipation of a chance to get rid of Cailan, I'm leaning towards the idea that he saw what he wanted to see.
I think those who are looking for "evidence" in developer's posts are reading too much into them. If you read it carefully, you'll note that David "think" this and that and that "Loghain probably..." etc. There is no hard information. And that is of course intentional. I think we are supposed to make up our own minds.
I also think that the "official" developer version on Loghain may have changed somewhat progressively. That's right, we are right in the middle of a classical "revisionistic" history rewrite
The evidence the gameplay gives us is not 100% conclusive, but it is very damning:
Cailan does not pose any threat to Ferelden, when Loghain's plans on treason are set in motion. In fact, it's doubtful if he ever was a threat to Ferelden, as Loghain claims. In the end, if Loghain truly didn't like the battleplans, it was his absolute duty to make that very clear to the king, whatever it takes. But frankly, I don't think he was particularly concerned about the plans in that way. I think his main concern must have been whether or not he would be able to use the battle to get rid of the king.
There is another detail in the game, Cailan seem to indicate, in one sentence, that it is in fact Loghain's battle plan.
The Couslands had already been murdered, Eamon was poisoned etc. Loghain was already deep into a vast treason, aiming for the murders of a really lot of Ferelden's people. His time was starting to run out, the sh' would soon hit the fan, so to speak. He knew he had to kill the king soon.
There are a number of details in the game concerning the beacon in the tower. Loghain wanted his own henchmen to have control of the tower. When that plan didn't work, his men abandoned the tower's defenses, so darkspawn could take over the tower and, hopefully, make it impossible to light the beacon.
The emotions we see in Loghain's face as the beacon is lighted, is in my opinion and belief, not a commander taking a decision. It is disappointment, and understanding of that he now has to abandon the field, in direct contradiction to the battleplan.
This is a clear act of treason which he knows will be much more difficult for his men and others to understand, than just waiting indefinitely on a beacon, that will never be lighted, which really was his original plan.
As for the darkspawn forces being far greater than anticipated, or possible to cope with, I really can't say. Ultimately we don't know. But it doesn't matter at all, regarding Loghain's part.
Because he didn't know. He couldn't see. He received no reports. That's why he needed the beacon in the first place. He had placed himself and his army in a place where they wouldn't be able to see the plight of the king and the gray wardens. That was the whole point. The beauty of the plan. He would just stay there and wait. For a beacon that would never be lit. So he had no way of knowing wether the battle could have been won or not. But he probably assumed it could be, based on earlier encounters.
One of the cornerstones in Loghain's treasons must have been that he never considered the Blight to amount to much. Why would he otherwise himself destroy so much of Ferelden? No, the 'Blight' was in his mind just an opportunity.
The game does in fact offer us another very damning clue here: Loghain first blame the defeat and the king's death, not on the darkspawn, but on the Gray Wardens! Very good evidence, IMO, of that Loghain still wasn't much concerned about the darkspawn numbers.
So could the battle at Ostagar have been won? Of course! Other views are most likely just the products of post battle disinformation and propaganda from Loghain.
There is the fact that Ferelden doesn't become rapidly overwhelmed after the battle. The party moves around fairly freely. Evidence that the darkspawn at that time really weren't as many.
But either way, that is actually still irrelevant for Loghain's part. I think he believed it was possible to win when he abandoned the battle. He believed it was possible to win when he first claimed the opposite.
He may have convinced himself that he didn't think it was winnable, later. I can't guess what went on in his mind. But I'm convinced that he never intended to take part in the battle at Ostagar, and that he always intended the king to die there.
His decision to leave, was undoubtedly taken at the moment the beacon was lighted, just as D.G. "thinks". His decision not to fight, otoh, had been taken long ago.
Modifié par Solica, 20 janvier 2010 - 07:30 .





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