For the benefit of others, and a refresher for myself, care to elaborate on what the 'new monarch' paradigm entails?
It's not a phrase I can ever remember hearing from my formal education, so I wouldn't be surprised if not many people understood the reference.
I apologize!
The New Monarchs are a historical trope, especially popular in the middle of the twentieth century, used to describe a group of leaders from the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries that appeared to mark a sort of transition from decentralized states to more centralized ones in similar ways. The usual ones cited are Henry VII of England, Louis XI of France, and the Most Christian Monarchs of Castile and Aragon, Isabel and Ferran II, but other contemporaries are also often included. According to the proponents of the New Monarchy trope, these rulers curbed the independence of their aristocracy, established various forms of institution that augmented royal power in 'progressive' ways, and increased state revenue.
Essentially, the New Monarchs helped to unify and organize states on a more rational basis. These efforts ended up paying off when their successors embarked on the whirlwind of activity that was sixteenth-century European political history. Without the institutions that the New Monarchs created, it is difficult to imagine the first wave of European colonization happening in the same way - or, conversely, it is hard to see how Europe would have been embroiled in the interminable wars that characterized much of the sixteenth century, either. (You know: the Habsburg-Ottoman wars, the Valois-Habsburg wars, the Italian Wars, the periodic paroxysms of internal violence that afflicted the Holy Roman Empire, and all the fighting in Scandinavia and throughout the Baltic littoral.)
There are plenty of reasons to claim that this is, uh, 'over-periodization' - that historians overemphasize the similarities between these monarchs while failing to note the similarities between them and their predecessors and successors. But there's enough there for the historical trope to survive into the modern day. Many moons ago, in
Gymnasium, we were still going over New Monarchies and the closely related concept of the Military Revolution.
You do understand how low the chances of winning that battle in ostagard was , right?
I don't believe we have any specific knowledge of what Ferelden's chances of winning at Ostagar were. We have a collection of self-serving and/or biased claims from people closely associated with one side or the other of the battle. Alistair believed that the Fereldans would have won if Loghain had supported the king; Loghain claimed that it was a doomed effort. Neither is a reliable observer; neither of them, in fact, had any possible way of even knowing. Loghain could only see the Tower of Ishal's signal, not the darkspawn horde, and Alistair was stuck up in the tower itself with no view of the battle.
However, we
can point out some reasons for and against fighting at Ostagar.
Firstly, the Ostagar was fortified, and fortified well. That's extremely handy to have, especially in a space like the Korcari Wilds where it's difficult to maneuver large armies. Tying one's army to fortifications therefore offers most of the advantages of protection without the drawback of losing one's ability to maneuver; the Fereldans couldn't have maneuvered all that much anyway.
Secondly, Ostagar enjoyed the benefit of a good supply line. Positioned as it was at the end of the Imperial Highway, the best transportation infrastructure in Thedas, it was relatively easy to shuttle troops and supplies down to it - or, conversely, to retreat
from it if things got too hot. Keeping a large force in the field is extremely difficult, especially for medieval armies, and with the Highway there the task was infinitely simpler.
Thirdly, by fighting in a forward position, the Fereldan army reduced the threat to the civilian populace. In the Korcari Wilds, the only people who were at risk were the Chasind. By keeping the darkspawn away from Ferelden proper for as long as possible, the king's army protected the people, the tax base, and the country's food sources. North of Ostagar, the country opens up considerably. It's easier to maneuver large armies, and defensive positions assume less value. Ostagar, used as a defensive bastion and a
point d'appui, had excellent utility as a blocking position for an outnumbered Fereldan army. The spawn would not find it easy to maneuver around it (if, indeed, the darkspawn army could maneuver at all); they would almost have to attack. But even withdrawing as far as Lothering gives the spawn more space to get around a blocking force. If you have a smaller force, you want to use choke points if your goal is to prevent a larger enemy from moving past you. Ostagar was the best spot to service that ambition.
It's difficult to understand an argument for retreating from Ostagar, actually. The fortress provided a large number of force multipliers to the Fereldan army; tactically, it was likely to be the best place in the entire country to face down an enemy army, apart from Redcliffe or Denerim itself. But if the darkspawn were attacking Redcliffe or Denerim, the entire country would have been practically subsumed by the Blight. That's a problem. Retreat has a serious cost. One could not propose to simply keep an 'army in being' in the field while the darkspawn ravage the Fereldan countryside. The spawn would destroy the Fereldans' sources of food and shelter, would poison the very land that they fight on. You need domestic industry - cottage industry, in this time period - to keep an army armed and armored, and to keep horses shod and healthy; if the darkspawn are destroying that industry, you're screwed. You can't keep an army together without food and supplies.
The only reason to withdraw from Ostagar would be if withdrawal would allow more allied forces to link up with the army. Otherwise, the Fereldans would have yielded territory and positional advantages without gaining anything in return. Yet Loghain refused to countenance the assistance of allied forces. He did not want Orlesian aid, either from the Empire or from the Wardens. He took actions that could only have resulted in the opposition of Redcliffe, the only other major unengaged Fereldan force. What was left? Howe's men from Amaranthine, who were still busily murdering Couslands and the part of Highever's military that hadn't already gone to Ostagar? Would that make up for the loss of the king's forces and the Grey Wardens? It's hard to imagine that it would. So Loghain proposed to retreat from Ostagar, yield a valuable forward defensive position, get a significant chunk of the army killed, and dramatically increase the danger to the populace and resources of Ferelden, and in exchange he would be getting...uh...a bunch of guys from Arl Howe. I don't believe that that improves his chances of taking on the Blight.
If Loghain believed that reinforcements were either unnecessary or a Bad Thing, he should have supported staying at Ostagar. If he thought that Ostagar was doomed, then he should have demanded reinforcements to compensate for the loss of the Ostagar position. Instead, he chose the worst of both possible paths: no reinforcements
and no Ostagar battle.
Loghain, in fact, seems to have held bizarrely contradictory opinions about the Blight. After Ostagar, he claimed that the darkspawn were too strong and that the Fereldan army was doomed if it fought them. Okay, then why devote the bulk of your attention to enemies within Ferelden and to Orlais? If the darkspawn were an existential menace, surely they would take priority over the Orlesians. If Loghain did think that the darkspawn were too strong to fight at Ostagar, then that is indicative of gravely muddled military thinking, and does not constitute a vote of confidence in his favor. If you believe that Loghain was a competent commander who understood the benefits and drawbacks of the major options available to the Fereldan army, then you must concede that his ultimate policy was
not motivated by that sober understanding of the darkspawn and what he was up against. Other concerns - greed, resentment, anger, personal squabbles with the king - were in the mix as well.
We cannot know if Loghain's decision tipped the Battle of Ostagar in the darkspawn's favor. It's impossible to figure out, short of Word of God. Fundamentally, battle is a lottery. Any action involving thousands, or tens of thousands of individual people is inherently random. The best a commander can do is give his troops the best
chance to win: with a good plan, with good force multipliers, by minimizing the enemy's own advantages. Tactically, the Ostagar position was probably the best place for the Fereldans to fight. Operationally, it made sense to fight at Ostagar as long as possible. Leaving Ostagar would almost certainly not improve Ferelden's chance to end the Blight.
I really don't agree with what Loghain did. But he now has a limited army. If he sent them out to protect the majority of the citizens then he would lose most of his unit in the long run. And the fights he had with the noble was about getting their support for more troop.
I can understand his reasoning but of course the issue is that he went about the wrong way to do it. Why it has to do with Ostagar is because it the core of his problem with getting support and forming an army for the entire war.
If he failed to protect the majority of Ferelden's subjects, then he would lose
all of his troops in the long run. You cannot fight an army without civilians supporting it: as recruits, as taxpayers, as food suppliers, as lodgers, and as emotional and psychological support.
Loghain's previous experience of war was in the rebellion against Orlesian rule. But the Orlesians weren't the darkspawn. They could not wipe out Ferelden's inhabitants and have any hope to rule the country afterward. Orlais simply wanted to insert its own leaders and clients into the existing Fereldan power structure. They had to fight Moira, Maric, Loghain, and the other rebels with the disadvantage of not being able to destroy the insurgency's base of support. Against the Orlesians, Loghain could keep an army-in-being together. Against the darkspawn, he could not. The spawn destroyed Ferelden's power structure and slaughtered its civilians. If Loghain proposed to keep his army together, live off the land, and move from position to position whittling down the darkspawn until he could mount a River Dane-style decisive battle and destroy them, he would lose his army to attrition and lack of supply long before he would even sniff a decisive battle. To defeat a Blight, you need the Grey Wardens; to fight darkspawn, you need to keep them as far away from civilian infrastructure for as long as possible. Loghain wanted to do neither of those things.
I can live with Patrick Weekes identifying as a gay empress, but an Orlesian? Pervert.
Remember kids, being Orlesian is a choice, and you should be very ashamed of yourself.
yah boo monarchy sucks, down with empresses