Occasionally true, though not often. I'm averaging about three mismatches per Bio game, myself. I don't know what's typical for a Bio player in this regard, though I expect that folks participating in this thread will average lower than the playerbase as a whole since there's a selection bias in the topic.
I recall the occasional mismatch in DAO, but in DA2 it occurred nearly every conversation.
But more importantly, the uncertainty created by the expectation of a mismatch ruined my experience during conversations throughout DA2. Even when I got a line I wanted, I hadn't selected the option with any confidence that that would be the case.
But after I've selected the dialogue option, we have the same degree of knowledge. This is the line, and we have to model our character conception to match it. Unless for some reason one of us picks a line that's not the best one out of the options available, both systems leave us in exactly the same place after the line's been said. I don't see why it's particularly relevant whether we reach that place before or after pushing the button.
Because we need to know our character's state of mind in order to interpret the results of that line. The NPC reactions that are triggered by the line will mean something different to the PC based on his state of mind, and that state of mind should be determined without any knowledge of those consequences.
And doing so after the line is selected can be quite computationally complex. Every previous decision made by the character needs to be considered to determine what personality is consistent with that set of behaviours. Before, we could select the option we know was consistent, but now we're forced to invent a new personality with each dialogue selection - else we risk an incoherent character.
Moreover, as you point out, it may well be that the best option was one I didn't choose. The only way to approximate the gameplay of the silent protagonist games with the DA2 dialogue system is to go through the conversation repeatedly to determine what all the options actually are, write those down, and then try to forget what the consequences of those lines are while picking your way through the dialogue again.
In all of Bio's voiced-protagonist games, I can only recall one case where I chose the wrong line and it was Bio's fault. (I misinterpreted how Renegade paraphrases work in ME1 a couple of times, but that's on me for not understanding how the system works.) There's an egregious paraphrase during Merrill's "A New Path " quest where it's not at all clear what Hawke's going to take responsibility for; the spoken line is about keeping Merrill under control, but I read "I'll take responsibility" as referring to the Keeper's death, which my Hawkes typically wouldn't feel responsible for.
Again, this happened to me in nearly every conversation. Sometimes the line I got was a direct contradiction of my character's state of mind (the first time I remember this was in ME). And if all of the available options contradict my character's state of mind, then I need to go back to construct a new one that is consistent with all of the previous choices. And that takes time. Since I can't pause the game between my character speaking and the NPC responding, I don't have that time unless I get to do it before the paraphrase selection.





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