I understand that business wants to be conservative in the marketing choices they make. But the 'you win we lose' mentality seems a little over the top considering there are other more significant issues that make a game succeed or fail.
Sorry, "you win we lose?' mentality? I think there are a lot of issues that make a game succeed or fail. I'm not privy to all the factors that people consider important. I'm not a marketer, and for the most part the entire marketing profession seems to be a whole bunch of data of "experiements" were too many variables change. As such it's more art than science. But games will succeed and fail that I wasn't expecting, and sure enough there are people taht predict it and go "Well yeah, because of X"
And yes technically, business ultimately succeeds by selling more product, sometimes irrespective of quality, but you can saturate the demographic. There are only so many men and boys wanting to play Bioware games, whilst I'm pretty sure, as evidenced by you Allan at PAX, that there is definitely increasing interest in Bioware games amongst female gamers, I don't see how marketing to them is going to make the game a failure.
This is becoming tangential, but business succeeds by delivering a product or service to enough of a market that they are able to sell that product and turn a profit.
CCP isn't really interested in growing its population base. They seek to keep them engaged so that they keep playing, because it's a recurring income. Kickstarter projects actively seek to constrain their audience size, by building a game that focuses specifically on a subset of the market, rather than growing their market.
Now it's fair to say that BioWare's games are continuing to grow in scope and cost, and in that sense yes we need to grow our audience to keep up. But that's a bit different as there's nothing stopping a company from actively trying to keep their fanbase engaged with future products without seeking to grow. It just means that the company is likely not a growth company.
But as you say, you (and I) can't see how marketing the game to them would make it a failure (depending on how we define the term failure, I suppose... how about we define it as "the game would not see a measurable decline in sales than had the game been marketed more status quo). But, how do we test this? How can we know what influenced the game to have the sales that it did?
So we can't see it. But obviously others don't see it the same way as us. I think what Steelcan was trying to do was to examine why those people can't see it, because ultimately they are the ones that need convincing. Sadly, me going "wow there's a lot of women here" at PAX only makes me stroke my chin and go "Hmmmmmm."