Okay before we start I'd just like to say that I'm not considering this as fact, in fact I think, like most fan theories, its going to turn out to be a load of nug-crap. This is just a little theory I thought up which I thought was a bit interesting. The first couple of paragraphs are just some background stuff, if you want to get straight to the theory skip ahead to the fourth paragraph.
So lets go to the start. Dumat is/was the old god of silence apparently the most powerful of the old gods. Allegedly the maker imprisoned the old gods in the deep roads for convincing humans to worship them. Apparently Dumat destroyed the kingdom of Barindur in -1610 ancient, suggesting that if he was imprisoned it was after this. The next we here of Dumat was in -1595 ancient were the archon Thalsian said he had personally learnt blood magic from Dumat. From then on Dumat along with the other old gods were worshiped by the Imperium. It can be assumed that if the old gods were imprisoned by the maker or something else, it was at this point.
At around -395 ancient the magisters of Tevinter sacrificed hundreds of slaves and used 2 thirds of the lyrium in the empire to reach the "golden city" and take it for themselves. It is generally accepted that they failed, turned the golden city into the black city and returned as the darkspawn. They then reached Dumat, tainted him and turned him into the first archdemon. The first blight then began and only ended at around -203 ancient. Dumat was then slain at the battle of the silent fields by the first grey wardens. Of course all of the above is simply what we have been told and any or all of it could be incorrect.
According to Corypheus Dumat was the one who convinced the magisters to enter the golden city and that apparently it was already "black" when they got there. According to the world of Thedas there is a theory that instead of the darkspawn creating the first archdemon, Dumat actually created the first darkspawn and lead the darkspawn against Thedas. It also states that some consider (or considered) the golden city to be the realm of the old gods.
And so my completely flaw proof, and totally-not-relying-on-complete-speculation theory is this. Dumat convinced the magisters to head to the "golden city". It was already black because it was actually Dumat's realm. The magisters were then corrupted by the city becoming the darkspawn. Dumat did this to either build himself an army to conquer thedas, get the darkspawn to free him (if he was indeed imprisoned in the deep roads) or both.
Now the first "grey wardens" who "killed" Dumat might not of actually been proper wardens. The joining requires a mixture of darkspawn blood, lyrium, and archdemon. Accoring to Riordan (or at least i think it was him who said it) the first "wardens" only drank darkspawn blood. Now according to David Gaider you can become grey warden as long as you take in the corruption with enough potency to make the effect immediate. Normal darkspawn blood can do this as long as it has been magically treated but there is no mention of the first wardens doing this, why would they? They wouldn't know that its vital to have the taint to truly kill an archdemon (or just an old god if Dumat wasn't tainted because he was controlling the darkspawn out of free will). Nor do I think they would know how to magically treat darkspawn blood in the right way. This would mean that when Dumat was "killed" by the "wardens" instead of his soul joining with that of a grey wardens and perishing, it would go and seek another darkspawn. Meaning Dumat is still out there.
The second part of this theory is that Flemeth is Dumat. In witch hunt Morrigan states that Flemeth is no abomination or "truly human" (Flemeth being an old god would certainly explain this). Morrigan also states that Flemeth does not seek immortality (being an old god she is already, technically, "immortal"). Morrigan also implies that Flemeth is more closely connected to the blight than anyone suspected (Flemeth creating them would be a fairly big connection). And lastly Morrigan tells an orlesian warden to warn the wardens about Flemeth (if Flemeth is dumat you can imagine why she would be a bit of a threat).
Flemeth being an old god would certainly explain why she is so powerful and it would certainly explain how she can shapeshift into a dragon (although technically she would be shape shifting into a human). It would also explain how Flemeth knows of the dark ritual.
The reason she helps the warden in DAO could be because she doesn't want another old god taking the world instead of her. The dark ritual could be her attempt to make the OGB her thrall. She might of caused the veil tears in DAI in order to weaken Thedas before her attempt to claim it (although even if she is Dumat this might not be her goal).
Like I said at the start its impossible to be certain on any fan theory of this scale (yet), it would be like trying to complete a puzzle without all the pieces. So please take this theory for what it is: a little idea of mine which is probably going to be wrong. So please discuss what you think of this.
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