The first part would be pure statistics. If abominations happen in the Circle, they are handeled there before they can hurt anyone.
Free mages that are spread around means a LOT more potential abominations that will happen where there isn't a templar presence or where any help will arrive too late. That also should be sufficient to tell you that there would be a large bodycount.
As for the study. I'd have to look for it, which I don't feel like doing now. But psychology is n interesting thing. People can react completely differently to the same situation.
IIRC, the study said that people who yearn for contact with another group tend to look at that group in a better light, due to their simple desire. They also project that same desire.
Logically speaking, it makes sense, but then again you can make anything sound great and rational if you put effort into it.
you also miss the fact the best thing to take out an abomination is not a templar but a mage. mage's cannot only take out abominations with relative ease as long as they know the right spells. and a mage has far more vested interest in getting rid of abominations then anyone else. if theres mages everywhere theres people that can put down abominations everywhere.
Logic without compassion has no place in this debate, your talking about peoples lives! ALL people including the mage's. If you want to go the end of LOGICAL route your left with a single choice.
brain wash mage's and treat them like **** as the qunari do or kill all mages onsite.
the current circle system has failed time and time again, because of its very nature. It is a reflection of pure logic with very little compassion. You by force waltz into peoples homes and steal their children at sword point, subject them to indefinite confinement with the constant threat of death. On top of all that you prevent them from having relationships and again take their children from if the end up having relations (even if their kids aren't mages) you separate again by force any who so dare as steal a kiss behind the bookcases. Even threatening to send them to worse locations or again kill them.
All because of what might happen. Attempting to justify it on the basis of the greater good holds no weight to the victims or the circle system. Thats the Mages and their families, its been shown time and time again that people will not accept the security of the circles in exchange for their liberty.
no matter how many arrest's, murders, rights of annulments and forced tranquil's there are always and will always be those that yearn to be free. This has led to civil war and a full blown rebellion.
the circle system has failed. when a dam bursts you don't rebuild it the same way, you find the weakness and eliminate it.
the weakness is that so long as mages understand the concept of freedom there will be mages that rebel against their inhumane treatment.
thinking LOGICALLY we see that if allowed maintain the status quo mages can rebel again, A mage rebellion that has torn the veil unleashing your greatest fear's about demons ten fold! it can not be allowed to happen again.
again LOGICALLY the only way to stop mages rebelling is either to brainwash everybody mages included into think they are not entitled to the same freedoms as a person that they are a "dangerous thing" so that they will embrace their captivity………...
But even then theres still a risk of some reject such a path and as long as they could reject these teachings they can rebel and indeed convince others to rebel.
so we're back to square one. Thinking LOGICALLY if we are going to persecute Mages based on what COULD happen then theres only one way to ensure mages don't rebel, that mages don't pose a threat.
Hunt every single one down mercilessly and kill them all.
Logic is by definition heartless and can only lead to genocide. and if thats the case its kill or be killed mages have the same right to wipe out all non mage folk after all if the only living beings are mages the concept of mages being more of a danger then anybody else seises to exist.
this issue is a lot more complicated then pure logic, your dealing with people not fixing a fence.