While I do think that BG type experiences have a lower ceiling in terms of audience sales, I do think that the story-oriented gaming has a lower ceiling than most would expect. Even supposed mega-hits like Last of Us and Bioshock: Infinite seem to plateau at the 5-6 million mark, around where the Mass Effect series is per game.
X-COM: Enemy Unknown as a strategy game with progression elements and mechanics similar to what the OP suggests has probably sold in that ball-park as well. So it's not completely out of order to suggest that a BG-type game can get big numbers.
That said, I think Might and Magic X - Legacy is much closer to the type of game the OP would want. A game with mid-tier production values and low budget compared to AAA behemoths and a niche, but sustainable audience.
The upcoming Kickstarter games also seems to follow this model, so we'll see how Project Eternity, Divinity: Original Sin, Wasteland 2 and Torment: Tides of Numenera end up (alongside others).
I am playing Might and Magic X- Legacy and Eschalon III right now. I will be picking up Wasteland 2 (Sargent Level),(I am thinking about getting the Beta), Pillars of Eternity (Project Eternity) along with other promising games that meet the requirements outlined in the OP..





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