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The Ostagar Campaign: Military Decision-Making and Imperfect Information in the Dragon Age


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#26
Xilizhra

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That's a different definition of skirmishing. You're talking about it in an operational sense: smaller-scale engagements that happen before, between, and after the big battles in a campaign. I was talking about it in a tactical sense: lightly-armed missile infantry and/or cavalry engaging the enemy on the field of battle prior to a set-piece engagement, to inflict attritive casualties, create more advantageous tactical situations for the deploying heavy infantry, develop the enemy's position and capabilities, and generally to harass and annoy the rest of the enemy army. We didn't really get any of that; from the evidence of the game, the only effort the Fereldans really made in that direction was to dispatch the odd scouting party into the Korcari Wilds before the battle. There was no integrated skirmishing component of the plan for the set-piece battle itself. Instead, the darkspawn emerged more or less at once in front of the Ostagar fortifications, and the Fereldans gave them one close-range arrow volley before the two armies engaged.

The obvious reason for this is that the devs didn't want to make models for horses, but I think I can see why skirmishing wouldn't happen from either direction. The darkspawn don't seem to have cavalry (they do have shrieks for stealthy harassment, but those can take time to gather when a Blight is beginning, I think), and only use archers as supplements because they have an additional incentive to attack in melee: their bodies and blood are poisonous, and even a victorious enemy can be killed if infected with the taint. As for the Fereldans, the darkspawn army would never have to leave the Deep Roads until it was ready to begin the attack, and it'd be suicidal to try to harass it underground.

 

And I think the darkspawn's numbers are as close to infinite as makes no real difference. They were able to destroy the entire dwarven empire during the First Blight, at the very beginning of their existence when all they had, presumably, was genlocks. A Blight could go on more or less indefinitely until the archdemon is killed, but I do like your hypothesis that some proximity is required (very thankfully, Disciples are defined by their lack of connection to the song of the Old Gods and so could not be used as lieutenants during a Blight, as they would seem to lack the required connection to the archdemon... hopefully).



#27
Guest_starlitegirlx_*

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It might even be that Urthemiel was waiting until there were fewer Grey Wardens.

 

Very well could be if we take intelligence into consideration and the assumption that it is aware that grey wardens have the ability to kill it, which if it senses them, then it might have some comprehension that they are capable of killing it.



#28
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If you have a high cunning, the Warden suspects that the darkspawn knew about the Tower of Ishal plans. And as Flemeth suggests later, the darkspawn are smarter than they appear. If the archdemon is as smart (or smarter) as an independent darkspawn like the Architect, then they're capable of any kind of plan a human could come up with. They're not beasts.


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#29
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If you have a high cunning, the Warden suspects that the darkspawn knew about the Tower of Ishal plans. And as Flemeth suggests later, the darkspawn are smarter than they appear. If the archdemon is as smart (or smarter) as an independent darkspawn like the Architect, then they're capable of any kind of plan a human could come up with. They're not beasts.

When does this come up? I usually go with cunning right away for tactical slots. But I want to see it in game. Do you remember where?



#30
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When does this come up? I usually go with cunning right away for tactical slots. But I want to see it in game. Do you remember where?

 

I think when entering the second floor of the Tower. There's an option that pops up when Alistair wonders why the darkspawn are there. It's not labeled [Cunning] though. It's one of those subtle dialogue options that open up if you have high cunning. Kind of like the ones you get with Flemeth too.


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#31
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I think when entering the second floor of the Tower. There's an option that pops up when Alistair wonders why the darkspawn are there. It's not labeled [Cunning] though. It's one of those subtle dialogue options that open up if you have high cunning. Kind of like the ones you get with Flemeth too.

Okay, I think that's the one where I always respond to him that he wanted to fight, didn't he. I'll have to look at them this round. I'm reinstalling and have to start over. *sigh* Damn mods... Ah well....



#32
Mike3207

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You have to have 30 minimum cunning modified for the option to show up. If you have the Lucky Stone, Guildmasters Belt, and the High Regard of House Dace, it just requires putting the initial points in character creation to get all cunning options to show up. There's also additional options when you first meet Flemeth and talk to Sten at his cage.If you're not a rogue, you'll need to put a fair amount of points in the early levels toward Cunning.


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#33
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Huh. I thought I knew everything. Didn't know about the Sten options.



#34
Monica21

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As I do with posts of this sort, I had many things to respond to, so I hope the formatting holds up.
 

 

First and foremost, Cailan's focus on the Gray Wardens was fundamentally correct. To end a Blight, you must kill the archdemon leading it; to kill the archdemon, you need Gray Wardens. It is impossible to kill an archdemon without them. Furthermore, Wardens are more valuable than other warriors when fighting darkspawn even if there is no Blight. It would be silly to claim that Wardens are all that one needs to take on an army of darkspawn, but taking one on without Wardens is a dicey proposition.

Cailan doesn't actually know this or know why it would be true. He also speaks of fighting "with the mighty Grey Wardens at my side" which is more indicative of wanting to be part of legend rather than knowing he needed the Wardens for any specific reason. The PC doesn't even know why the Wardens are needed until after the Landsmeet. You've applied some excellent logic to the fog of war, but not much to what was fact, fiction, and legend about the most recent Blight, which was 400 years earlier.
 

 

As a fortification, Ostagar was a better place to fight, tactically, than any other place we know of in the region. Fortified places are good for the defender: they offer his troops cover (improving their survivability) and place obstacles in the way of his enemies (decreasing their survivability). If you have the option, barring extenuating circumstances, fighting from a fortress is better than fighting anywhere else.

True, but they didn't fight from the fortress. There are a few troops along the bridge but half the army is in the valley, just standing there. They had no cover except for the ten or so archers on the bridge, Cailan releasing a volley of arrows, some hounds, and then charging. I don't know if this was for cinematic purposes, but it's difficult to argue that Loghain's plan of "drawing the horde in" involved the King's troops charging out to meet them.
 

 

In the event, of course, it did not matter that Redcliffe troops weren't at the battle, because even if Cailan had brought them, they would not have reached the field before the Fereldan army was defeated. ("Could be here in a week" doesn't work when the battle will be fought that evening.)

By the same token, it would not have mattered if Orlesian forces were on their way.
 

 

Firstly, Loghain accused Cailan of being too attached to the Gray Wardens and too reliant on their skills. (The novel The Calling gives some context about Loghain's opinions regarding the Wardens' unreliability.) It's hard to see how this holds water, because again, it is impossible to defeat a Blight without the Wardens, and it is much easier to fight darkspawn with their participation. Fighting an archdemon necessarily relies on the Wardens' presence and military skill. It doesn't matter if they're politically unreliable, because without them, you don't have a ghost of a chance against the darkspawn.

Again though, no one actually knows why this is, except for the Wardens and they aren't telling anyone. No one alive remembers the last Blight and the only things remaining are scraps of paper and oral history. In the human noble origin when Bryce asked if you know who the Grey Wardens are, one of your options is to say, "They're the ones who defeated the darkspawn" suggesting that it's widely assumed that the darkspawn will never return. Alistair even confirms this when first speaking to him, that the Wardens killed so many darkspawn during the last Blight that most people thought they would never return. No one except the Wardens knows about the fallen Old Gods, how many there are left, or how the taint affects them. These are things you learn in-game and not something your average Ferelden citizen would not know.
 

 

Still, either way, it's a screwup of rather disastrous proportions...

A screw up he cops to when saying, "All of this can rightly be called my fault." And it's fairly clear that he did not believe it was a Blight but did at the time of the Landsmeet.

 

/continued because of quote block limit



#35
Monica21

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Continued
 

 

He already weakened the army by withdrawing from Ostagar; he will weaken it more by allowing the darkspawn to invade Ferelden.
 
That, at least, is objective.


I disagree. You are correct that Loghain needed troops and supplies, but that is exactly what he calls for when he returns to Denerim. He states, "We will defeat this darkspawn incursion and rebuild what was lost at Ostagar." His intention is clear: he plans to use the forces in the Bannorn to defeat the darkspawn, and it is only when the Bannorn turns on him that he is forced to fight two fronts.
 

 

 

Loghain believed that the Orlesians were involved in a conspiracy to reconquer Ferelden

Which, in fact, they were. Except it was less a coup and more Cailan marrying Celene.
 

 

Which ultimately means that if Loghain had logical reasons to believe that the army was doomed if it stayed and fought at Ostagar, those logical reasons would also apply to retreating from Ostagar. By retreating, Loghain would not be making the situation better. He would, in effect, be saving the army only to allow it to die at a later date.

Those you see in Denerim after Ostagar are nobles. They are the troops Loghain needs. Add Redcliffe forces, Loghain's own troops from Gwaren and the rest of the Bannorn and I believe that you do have a rather formidable force against which to fight the darkspawn.
 

 

Then, there's the issue of how exactly Loghain 'knew' that the king's army at Ostagar was doomed. Remember, he could not see the battlefield. All he had eyes on was the Tower of Ishal. All he knew was that the king's army had just signaled him to make the charge. His capacity for logically evaluating the relative military position was exactly nil. Why, exactly, did he think that the army was doomed?

There was very likely a factor of time involved. Loghain knew how long it would take to reach to top of the tower, and he knew that a separate signal would lead to the lighting the beacon at the tower. When you get to the top, Alistair says "we've likely missed the signal by now" suggesting that he knew of the factor of time as well. It's certainly not implausible to suggest that in the hammer and anvil strategy that the anvil broke rendering the hammer useless. And it's more than plausible that Loghain's "general's intuition" told him that the fighting in the valley had gone on too long without the signal to move from his position.

While I think you make essentially good points, I think the flaw in your argument is to argue that either Loghain did know or should have known what the player or Warden knew. That is, in my experience with these topics, the biggest flaw in the argument. It is simply not possible for Loghain to know it. In fact, if you make Loghain a Warden he finds out at the same time as your Warden why they are necessary to defeat the Blight. Simply having an understanding that, in the past, a group of secretive warriors defeated Blights isn't enough.



#36
Nimlowyn

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I read the whole thing beginning to end; don't have much to add except that it was an excellent read and food for thought. Thanks!



#37
Kenshen

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Just as the darkspawn charge you can see their numbers are in the 1000's and from what I got from the pre battle meeting that was a lot more than was being planned for.  I never can tell just how many troops Loghain has at his command that don't enter the battle so no real way to say for sure but my gut says it was a losing battle no matter what.  

 

After reading this thread I am wondering something else now.  I had always thought Duncan and the wardens kept why the wardens are so important in killing the AD a secret even from the king.  Certainly the top general didn't know and that was a huge error in judgement.  My question is did the King know and if so why didn't Loghain?  Would it have changed anything had he known the full story?  Maybe or maybe not since he didn't think it was a real blight to start with.