But by the time the Warden arrives at Lothering, the people there are already telling us that Loghain has declared himself Regent and the bannorn are already up in arms about this, so the idea that there's going to be a Civil War is probably a near-certainty at this point? Hawke's family apparently left Lothering just before the horde struck it, while Aveline hung around to meet up with Wesley, so they've had enough time after Ostagar to see how the wind was going?
What the others said.
I can't really fault them for wanting to leave the country, given how no-one seems overly concerned with the actual Darkspawn at this point, but rather squabbling over the throne? Coupled with how we're told that there is apparently a sea of refugee camps outside Kirkwall and all the other Free March cities, it's not like they're the only people who decided to leave?
Oh I know they're not the only ones who decided to leave, and I don't fault them for why they did it. But the fact that other people did it doesn't change the selfishness inherent in it.
If you deserted the army to save your own skin or the skin of your family, while leaving other people to face those horrors, then it's selfish plain and simple. I can understand why one did it and can empathize with it, but it's not something that I can just consider a good thing.
If a peasant did it, that's one thing. They're fleeing their homeland but they were never in a position to protect it from the start to begin with. It's different for a soldier.
It's like the Awakening soldier who deserted, really.
Yeah, the problem was that no-one estimated the size of the horde that would attack and they got over-confident because the first few battles were simply large raiding parties?
I wouldn't say large raiding parties, at least for how I believe that might be numerically (you might have a different number). Formidable forces to be sure, but perhaps no larger then maybe the size of a few Fereldan nobles collective might. Maybe an Arl's forces.
Growing, to be sure, but not tens of thousands of Darkspawn like we see in Ostagar
Although, if we're being fair, both Cailan and Loghain were at fault for not realising this. Cailan was overconfident due to his bravado, whereas Loghain underestimated the enemy force because he refused to pay any attention the Wardens who were desperately trying to tell everyone that there was an Archdemon leading the horde and that a Blight was about to burst up and swallow them at any minute?
Oh undoubtedly both share the blame in Ostagar's failure. And while I agree Loghain underestimated the threat, I disagree that the Wardens were desperately trying to tell everyone an Archdemon was there and Loghain just failed to pay attention. All Duncan said was that he believed it to be a Blight, led by the Archdemon, with every ounce of his being. That sounds a lot like guesswork, even to me when I know the truth.
The Wardens subscribe to a mantra of "whatever it takes to end the Blight" but don't really live up to it. They don't tell Cailan/Loghain the secrets of their order, nor do they think to lie about having seen evidence of the Archdemon in the Deep Roads (since that was Duncan's mission in the DN origin, to find evidence) to get them to believe it.
Hell, there was a great comic on tumblr that demonstrated how much they fail at that mantra. Clarel goes "Wardens do what we must to end the Blight" and Loghain goes "Except cross the border because you're too scared to anger the Teyrn".
http://tewr-monkeyof...htly-approves-i
there we are.
But, I still have to wonder why Loghain didn't hash out more contingencies for the battle, if everything got FUBAR? Unless we're left to assume that he actually did have some backup exit plans in place and that's how those few who did survive Ostagar managed to get out alright, despite being pinned in like they were?
We don't know that he didn't plan out multiple contingency plans. We know he planned out one for his army to get out of there if things went to hell, but we don't know that he didn't plan out others (and that they may have gone to hell because of what happened during Ostagar).
It's worth pointing out though that Wynne was helping survivors around Ostagar after the battle, once the Darkspawn had pulled back to their lairs. She tells you this in the Circle quest if you talk to her after recruitment but before facing Uldred.
I think the problem when it comes to figuring out how Ostagar went as wrong as it did, is that neither side is particularly reliable in their accounts, since half those tend to be bitter that they were left to die, while the other half defend the retreat as being the only thing they could do? And sadly, the ones who tend to defend the retreat in Origins tend to be moments from trying to murder the Warden, so we're not particularly inclined to listen?
And if they don't try and murder us, we're given the option to kill them because they're "loyal Loghain stooges", more or less. So yeah, it's a problem with how the narrative operates, trying to goad you into accepting that Ostagar was a betrayal for a battle that could've been won. Anyone who says otherwise can lay face down in a pool of their own blood, by our own design.
Cauthrien and Loghain both maintain Ostagar's retreat was necessary, but we can kill them. Landry and the soldiers in Lothering and Imrek all try to kill us, though Landry at least does so with honor. Imrek was an idiot though and I'm glad to be rid of him because he was a horrible ambassador (probably a soldier and not a noble, which is why Loghain picked him. He favors the direct approach).
We get no one like Threnn in the narrative whose position we can't rebuke by way of the sword, and it suffers for it. If there was even just a few people in the game who gave us that viewpoint and we couldn't kill them, it would do wonders for the narrative.
Alas, it's why I view Origins as giving too much of a power fantasy to the players. It doesn't really challenge them on their decisions or mindsets.