...yeah.
The evidence:
1. Loghain and Cailan were quarreling before the battle about Cailan's willingness to invite Grey Warden/Orlesian assistance in and about Anora (apparently about Anora's infertility which was leading Cailan to consider divorce in the interest of fathering an heir and possibly making an Orlesian alliance. Goes to motive your honor.
2. Prior to the battle at Ostagar, Loghain conspires to have the two most powerful lords in Ferelden (and incidentally the two strongest known contenders to take the throne after Cailan) except for himself killed. What's his motive? How would this have played out once Cailan heard about the Cousland massacre if he was still alive. We don't know precisely when he conspired with Uldred to take over the Circle and cut the Templars out but he certainly would have had more time to do it before the battle, and that would explain how he came to rescue Jowan from the Templars. These moves make more sense as preparation for a coup than anything else.
3. During the battle the fact of the matter is, Loghain did NOT carry out his half of the plan. He saw the signal, and he ordered his forces to march away. After that, Cailan dies and the main force is broken. Arguments that he marched away because the signal was late and therefore he knew the battle was lost are not convincing. He couldn't see the battle from where he was. That was why the signal was called for in the first place. He had no way of knowing exactly when the Darkspawn main attack would hit or how the battle was going. If he was right, it was by accident. Afterward when Anora asks him whether he killed Cailan his denial is at best half-hearted.
I'd say the evidence supports him seizing on the late signal as an opportunity. If the signal had come sooner he would have gone ahead with the tactical plan. But then he would have killed Cailan anyway and felt justified. It was something that had to be done to save Ferelden from once again coming under Orlesian rule.
1: Loghain's dialogue when he discovers that Cailan was planning to divorce Anora in RtO indicates that it was a complete shock, though I'll concede the rest of this point.
2: No on all counts. You have at best circumstantial evidence that Loghain was involved with the plan to kill the Couslands and Gaider has indicated that he wasn't. There is also no evidence that Loghain was planning to take over the Circle; if I remember correctly all Niall testifies to was that Loghain would help them negotiate for more freedoms, and there is no evidence that Loghain supported Uldred's response to that falling through. During party banter, when Wynne is about to lay into Loghain and he thinks it's over Uldred's actions, he also sarcastically points out that what Uldred was doing was absolutely inconsistent with Loghain's aims with regards to the Circle. (Namely, that it continue to contribute mages to his army, which doesn't really become less of a good idea just because Loghain's not planning a coup.) Wynne doesn't even bother to argue that point, instead switching focuses to Ostagar (if she ever intended to try to pin Uldred's crimes on Loghain, that is.)
3: Is it explicitly stated that he couldn't see the battle? Because it seems to me the beacon could as well be meant to compensate for the fact that Loghain can't see the end of the darkspawn column: Loghain wants to charge in when the entire darkspawn force is committed, so that he's not opening his own flank to the darkspawn who haven't yet arrived. Furthermore, Duncan explicitly says that the Wardens have less than an hour to get to the top of the Tower, and Alistair seems convinced that you're lighting the signal late when you finally kill the ogre: if Duncan and Alistair can make an estimate like that, Loghain can too, even if I conceded that Loghain couldn't see the battlefield.
Also, I don't think you actually answered Aren's point on Loghain asked Cailan to do the one thing that would have comprehensively thwarted what you accuse him of planning. (Edit: Rereading it seems you responded to it, but your argument against that evidence seems to assume your conclusion.) It seems to me that the evidence best supports the opposite of your conclusion.
Loghain deserve death penalty,but the Old god need to be saved because is a special snowflake,even if he was the very thing responsible for this chaos?
The Archdemon has been driven insane by the darkspawn taint, thus making it an Archdemon in the first place. You can argue diminished capacity pretty easily here. Not to mention that causing Loghain to perma-die doesn't require either Alistair or the PC Warden to die, and that Alistair was (with valid in-character reason I'd argue) distracted by the "do I really want to stick it inside Morrigan" ethical dilemma.





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