I suppose it depends on the type of mod, but how long for each kind? I know that one can do loads of stuff with the toolset, but I honestly must read more tutorials. Also... what is the simplest mod?
You don't have to answer, but that's the same for every forum.
Technically making an unattainable item such as Ignacio's dagger attainable is also a modification, which takes less than one minute. Naturally the time required for the large scale mods would depend on manpower and proficiency.
^^^ This.
It really does depend on the type of mod, whether non-vanilla assets are involved, and how conversant you are with the tools. (And not just the "toolset". I know very little of my modding - such as it is - happens there.)
ETA that for most of my small, tweak-type mods, the in-game testing, writing the ReadMe, and packaging the darned thing for release takes up more time than the actual "modding". 
The simplest mod is something like runscript addtalent 100083. From that point on you will be able to use the Burning Man form in that game. No tools or downloads necessary, only enabling the console and maybe extracting fonts.erf from somewhere so that you can see what you type.
For the rest it is tends to be hard to tell how long it will take. There isn't a whole lot of documentation, so you have to look at examples like Sunjammer's excellent tuts and the game itself, and you'll probably have to experiment a bit. Take it one step at a time, and don't try to run before you can walk.
Chalseus has been working on The Rose of Eternity for 4 years (and counting)!
Without specifying the type of mod - have to agree anywhere from 1 minute to over 4 years
All of the above 
It is exciting AND fun most of the time.
To me the simplest "mod" is a head morph.
To me the simplest "mod" is a head morph.
Same here - the head morph is probably the easiest.
Two weeks for you maybe, it takes me 2 weeks to make a 2 minute cutscene.
It was 2 weeks of intensive activity starting from a position of near-complete ignorance of the toolset and its use, and never having made any mods involving quests, enemies, or dialogue before. A few video tutorials, some wiki help and some forum help was enough to do it.
I don't even think my brain has the capacity to absorb anything bigger than the simplest things... I just wish I knew where to look. The wiki is as big as Russia.
I don't even think my brain has the capacity to absorb anything bigger than the simplest things... I just wish I knew where to look. The wiki is as big as Russia.
You might start by narrowing it down with why kind of mod you want to create. Right now the options of what kind of mod you might want to create is as big as the ocean. Until you say "I want to give Ogre's green toenails" no one can even tell you where to look in the wiki. You might have to (will probably have to) start in simple steps, but with the information that you have provided, the only thing I can say is: read the toolset wiki
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