Before you even go there, yes I've seen the quote from David Gaider regarding Loghain's relationship with Howe.
Rough Paraphrase (I'm too lazy to track down the thread with the quote): Howe reportedly did a lot of things without Loghain's knowledge or consent, but when/if Loghain found about about them, it was too late to back out of their alliance.
But to suggest that Loghain had absolutely nothing to do with the massacre of the Couslands is...a stretch. The timing of the event with Ostagar and Loghain's alliance with Howe makes this extremely fortuitous for Loghain. In fact, it's far too fortuitous for several reasons and additionally considering that Loghain was preparing for a "confrontation" with Cailan concerning his desire for an alliance with Orlais. According to Gaider, the poisoning of Eamon was done in preparation for this confrontation so that Cailan would enter the situation having "already lost."
Yet, if we assume that Loghain had nothing to do with the massacre, then that means that he didn't have a plan for when the only other teryn in the nation decided to back the king. Unless Loghain did have a plan and that plan was to unleash Howe.
1) Bryce Cousland was a loyalist to the crown
Though he had his own doubts about whether or not the darkspawn invasion was a blight, he still obeyed the king's orders and rebuked Howe for speaking ill of the king. His family also never bowed to the Orlesians during the rebellion and fought to restore Ferelden's freedom and rightful heir to the stolen throne.
Bryce respected the king and held duty to the country as necessary for a lawful citizen. Without substantial proof to back Loghain's suspicions (Which loghain himself could never find until long after Cailan was dead), Bryce would see no reason to betray or stand against the king. Opposed by the only other teryn in the country, Loghain's attempt to curtail Cailan would be in danger.
2) Bryce Cousland was well-beloved and regarded by the bannorn
Not only is Bryce a war-hero; Not only is the head of one of the most powerful houses in Ferelden; But he was so well-loved by the bannorn that many actually preferred for him to be king rather than Cailan. This sounds like an individual who had more political clout than Eamon or Loghain combined.
If Loghain was actually going confront Cailan, he would also need to have the bannorn supporting him. A prospect made far more difficult is Bryce Cousland opposed Loghain. When one Teryn argues against another Teryn, who do the lesser lords support? The one that they trust or the one who pays them and I could see Bryce beating out Loghain on both scores though he'd only need the former.
Eliminating Bryce and his family also means eliminating your most powerful potential opponent. It means that when Loghain confronts Cailan, the bannorn may not back their king so readily.
3) If Bryce survived or Fergus was known to be alive then they would've been crowned king after Cailan died
Let's be honest, nobody believed Howe's attempt to slander the Couslands. Nobody even trusted Howe, his takeover of Denerem was about as subtle as an elephant stomping through popcorn. The only reason that no one did anything about was either because they couldn't (Most of Ferelden at the time) or because Howe was a benefit to them (Loghain). If Fergus had turned up earlier, then significant portions of the bannorn would flock to Fergus' son and declare him king.
Loghain is perceived by a significant majority as a power-hungry regent and usurper; Anora is a barren powerless/actionless queen without a legitimate claim or heir to the throne; and Cailan died without legitimate or illegitimate issue. Even Alistair's claim is on thin water and can only be backed by Arl Eamon or Bann Teagan with the former being poisoned and the latter occupied with protecting the former's lands from an army of deathless warriors (Black Cauldron reference for the win!).
With no way of confirming if there is anyone else with royal blood, the bannorn would be logically quick to find a suitable replacement. Who better than the leader of one of the oldest and most respected noble houses in Ferelden? Many nobles preferred Bryce to be king anyway and now that the throne is empty, they can easily put up Bryce or Fergus as a legitimate claimant to the throne and they'd likely win a landsmeet.
Which would be another threat for Loghain.
Loghain was adamant for keeping his daughter as ruling queen of Ferelden. So much so, that he even rejects Maric's bastard son on the grounds that he'd be a puppet for Eamon (valid concern, but hypocritical coming from Loghain's mouth). If the other teryn decides to claim the throne, he could picture much of the country backing them. Which means that he wouldn't be fighting scattered and mostly aimless resistance from the bannorn, he would be fighting an organized and determined counter-movement.
Hence why the Couslands would have to die to enable Loghain's plans.
4) Eliminating the Couslands leaves room for a vital ally
The game doesn't provide enough information to determine whether or not Howe was resisted in claiming Highever. Perhaps there were holdouts of resistance that refused to bend knee; maybe he was able to efficiently take control of the region...we simply do not know.
What we do know is that the absence of Bryce and his family allowed Loghain to install Howe as Teryn. This in turn allows Loghain and Howe to have effective control over the North and West of all of Ferelden along with all of their resources and positions.
Concluding Thoughts
So yeah, I'm heavily certain that Loghain was somehow involved in the massacre of the Couslands for all of the above reasons. But I am willing to give him somewhat of a benefit of a doubt. Maybe Loghain only intended for Howe to capture the Couslands and Howe had his own plan that still worked, but not quite in Loghain's favor.
These reasons were made with the consideration for both Loghain's plan to confront Cailan about the Orlesian alliance and for Loghain's attempts to seize power after Ostagar. Either way, Loghain had far too much to gain from Howe's "coincidental" overstep.





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