But see that is an assumption Dean. We don't actually see the behind the scenes events that lead up to a lot of this.
Asunder-It is entirely possible that Fiona or Lambert or Adrian are being manipulated into their positions without knowing it. I have long had a theory that Lambert's extreme behavior at times is the result of the Black Divine rewiring his brain before he sent him off to the Chantry(Cole sensing a dark power emanating from him also contributes to this theory). I also wish we knew more about how Lambert was appointed Lord Seeker, it really doesn't fit with someone like Justinia as Divine, and she was divine at least 5 years by the time of Asunder based on how long the research into the cure for tranquility had occurred. It would have been fairly easy to play on Adrian's temper to manipulate her into killing Pharamond and Rhys himself says he thinks Adrian could have been behind the assassination attempt on the Divine. As for Fiona, we see very little of her and she acts in a decidedly belligerent manner when that obviously was not the time or place for it. And again, we still have no clue at all who sent the mage to kill the Divine. That alone could have been the act of the BIg bad and the other pieces played into their hand. Also, why is it that an order/situation that has existed for more then 900 years all of a sudden happened to go to hell at the same time lots of other problems were conveniently popping up?
MTE- Oh they all have their own ambitions, but who's to say that Montsimard wasn't acting on orders and fanned Gaspard into open rebellion against Celene? It is certainly surprising that Celene is seen as one of the most popular and well like impresses in recent memory and all of a sudden Gaspard is conspiring against her. I know the Great Game and all, but I don't think that means that someone didn't manipulate Gaspard into acting.
DA2-Why did the Seeker's not reign in Meredith on her abuses, especially when they were sent there before everything went to hell specifically to stop it? Why did the hardliners of Kirkwall get into such a position of power? Orsino just happened to be friends with a blood mage and learned blood magic? The circle in Kirkwall just happened to be crawling with secret blood mages? The Grand Cleric of Kirkwall continued to do nothing when by all accounts she was an intelligent woman who should have seen the writting on the wall? Anders is able to get all the supplies he needs and even knows the magic/alchemy to blow the chantry to basically nothing? Justinia also sent the seekers because they had learned that external forces had manipulated events in Kirkwall.
DAO-The Architect causes the 5th blight by chance or was he manipulated into trying to free the old god? Howe chooses this moment to make his move? Cailain thinks its a good idea as king to stand in the front lines? It just happens to be the shortest blight in histoy-bad enough to destabilize and weaken Ferelden to the point that it has enough on its plate to not have time to worry about the Veal Tears, but not enough to truly cause long term damage anywhere?
Look I am not saying someone caused all this, but from the Devs comments I get the impression that someone has been manipulating a lot of events for a long time and they have done more to set the stage then simply bide their time and let things play out.
The problem with most of what you are writing here is that it assigns a virtually omnipotent, omniscient conspiracy behind everything when such a conspiracy would begin to fall if a single actor, in a cast filled with numerous highly failable people, faltered or failed to act as predicted. It quickly becomes an unfalsifiable conspiracy when every turn of event becomes evidence of a conspiracy because, hey, how could so many of these things happen naturally?
Quite easily, actually.
People want to assign to a masterful conspiracy what others assign to God or the Devil: mundane and unrelated answers to critical events (such as, for example, Meredith not being reigned in because there was no perceived reason to until she was too powerful to reign easily) just don't satisfy the idea of a clear answer and allocated blame. Which, after all is more plausible: that the Champion had a plan behind all the events they were involved in at the right place and time, or that they really were an apostate refugee who stumbled into things?
A narrative is required to be plausible. History just has to happen- that fact that it is random and chaotic and frequently implausible is more of a consequence of people trying to establish order and assigning direction where there is none. No one conspired the Blight so that the red lyrium could be recovered to be given to the paranoid Knight Commander of Kirkwall over the edge so that a rogue apostate's terrorism would initiate a crackdown to launch a mage rebellion to help destabilize the regional super power and spark a peace summit at a specific location for a decapitation strike to throw the world into choas.
No, the conspiracy was probably a lot more simpler, resiliant, and benefited from chance. Step one: wait for a Blight to weaken some part of Thedas. Step two: use agent provacateurs to try and heighten mage-templar tensions and wait for something to go exceptionally right or wrong. Step three: kill the Chantry leadership at the most opportune moment available.
Resiliant conspiracies are also vague and adaptive conspiracies. They don't need to be behind everything that happens- they just set conditions so easily predictable things can happen, and then they take advantage of it. In DA2, for example, the foreign interference the Divine is investigating are a pro-independence mage fraternity. They may or may not have foreign backing: Fenris claims Tevinter. But, ultimately, they are at best a minor factor for the Annullment. Meredith's draconian policies, red lyrium insanity, and Anders-abomination were the primary causes. The instigators could only affect the first of the three, and even then it's unclear if the mages in Kirkwall needed any help for that.
If it isn't a coincidence, doesn't that imply that there was an active plan behind the events that caused them to all happen in such close succession?
Not at all- some events could be independent and convenient, while others are independent initiators. A lack of coincidence doesn't imply shared causation.
Take the Blight. The Conspirator doesn't actually need to initiate the blight: the Conspirator simply needs to be prepared to exploit the predictable consequences of a Blight when one eventually does occur. The timing isn't a coincidence, but neither is it instigated. Once it does occur, the Conspirator activates agitator networks, and over the next several years... badum. Tensions suddenly start to skyrocket, and conditions are set that an incident, deliberate or independent, starts a mage revolt. The fact that the Blight occurred in Ferelden as it did, especially being wrapped up more quietly and easier than any before it, was probably an unfortunate accident for the Conspiracy. The fact that the Blight involved the Old God Ritual... well, that had far more to do with a conspiracy than anything else, though how the Morrigan conspiracy relates to the Flemmeth conspiracy is connected to the DAI mastermind conspiracy is a big ?.
The Orlais civil war is a better example of how a conspirator can be limited but fortunate. In this case, we actually do have a prime suspect for the conspirator's proxy: Falassan. Falassan integrates himself to Celene's support network, passes on and withholds convenient information, and appears to have been directly tasked with gaining the Eluvian network passcode. The results of this are... not much. Falassan isn't necessary for the Civil War to break out. Falassan isn't the reason the Civil War will continue for some time, for maximum distractive effect. And ultimately, Falassan refuses to receive the Eluvian network passode, which was the implicit reason for his role for the mysterious Fade being.
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