Don't discount Ferelden so easily. Yes it's weakened from the blight, but what military they do have is battle hardened and well equipped (you did pay for that right?) and can count on allies from close by (The dwarves could potentially hold the frostbacks easily, meaning any intervention from Orlais has to come by sea).
I think Ferelden could definitely put a dog in the fight if needed (pun intended).
The Dwarves would more likely side with Orlais since they have the Chantry who buys their lyrium.





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