That would be really silly. You'd buy an entire disc for a program that's around 10 Mbs? And then require you to download a game? Why not download the program from the internet right away then if it won't have the game you're buying?
Either way, it wasn't the case for previous games that required Origin (like ME3), so there's no reason for that to change now.
Are you thinking about games that have constant MMO like updates? Because MMOs have discs but still require a large download afterwards (like GW2).
Regarding part 1: in my original post I stated that I have a limited amount of bandwidth per month, and if Maker forbid that my computer melts down again, I will have to be extremely careful about what I restore and in what order to make sure I don't exceed my monthly limit. So yes, installing directly from a disc is the optimal option for me.
As for the second part, more game companies are going with the online activation route (and some of them require constant connection even for single player games); I am not going to take what they've done in the past for granted, as EA Games could very well change their mind at any point and decide that requiring a download from their servers is the way to combat piracy. This is why I am asking for official confirmation.