If things happen the way you suggest, there's two ways that could go down.
The first, the Templars as an organisation no longer exist and although others are trying to rebuild the order, it will take so much time and effort that they won't have any presence in the next game. If this is the case, that's a fairly large change for Bioware to consider and it does provide them with a lot of difficulty.
If we did have a canon-ish scenario in which the Templars were destroyed, I'd be able to appreciate a grassroots reaction in which mage-fearing mundanes try to reorganize and re-establish some idealized recollection of the Templars. Even if they were basically just mobs with a purpose and trying to claim an identity.
In fact, I'd be rather disappointed if we didn't get some movement to restore the Templars in a mage victory scenario.
The second, the Templars quickly recover from their destruction as a new order is made to replace the old in short order. By the time the next game comes around, a new iteration of the Templars has already risen and is ready to combat the mage threat. This cheapens the choice of destroying the Templars to such a degree that most players would just ask themselves: "Well, what's the point then?"
Depends how you handle it. There's a good deal of difference between existing as the underdog and existing as the big dog, even without the thematic differences available.
One scenario we've only read but never seen in practice, for example, is the idea that Templars protect both the mundanes and the mages. I believe it was Asunder where we get a bit of that, not just in good Templar protecting from bad Templar, but in Templars protecting mage from possibly lynch mob.
A good distinction scene for such a 'new Templar underdog' group would be if they didn't hold any such view of protecting mages as well as mundanes. They could define themselves as only protecting the mundanes against the mages but not the inverse, adopting a more extreme view.
Imagine a scene in which a frightened mage is cornered by a mob. Between the mob and the mage are two Templars. In the 'new Templars' scenario, the Templars have their back to the mob and have swords facing the mage. In a 'classic Templars' scenario, the Templars have their back to the mage with swords towards the crowd.
That's the sort of minor difference that can have a huge tone impact.
It's a horrible balance to try and maintain. Players need to feel like their choices made an impact but at the same time, the story needs to remain moderately linear for the purpose of not making story design a cluttered mess. Or, more of a cluttered mess that it already is. I don't envy Bioware at all and I am certain that we won't have a deciding impact on the Mage-Templar conflict. A significant one, maybe but only a significant as the Collector Base example I gave above.
What they really need to work on is having meaningful choices that aren't mutually exclusive world-changing choices.
Ever heard of Lieutenant Murphey of Operation Red Wings? In Afghanistan, there was a US special forces team that's now a infamous ethics delima for the military.
During their infiltration they were discovered by a civilian goatherder who they detained. They determined he was an unarmed civilian, and ROE was to let him go. Some members of the team advocated killing the man to keep their presence a secret. LT Murphey decided to spare the man... who went on to inform the Taliban, who wiped out everyone on the team other than LT Murphey, and who shot down a US helicopter and killed another 16 special forces soldiers to boot.
That was in mid-2005. It was not a decision that determined the war. Almost ten years later, LT Murphey probably wouldn't be serving with the people who died that day regardless. But it certainly was a decision that had a huge, personal impact.





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