Oddly enough, Kirby
mentioned that Ashalle was managing the Hinterlands (to explain her absence from the Sabrae Clan), so I'm a little confused as to why Merrill phrases it as though this as an uncertainty. The official Dragon Age website also includes
a letter referring to the Hinterlands, but reads it's land belonging to Redcliffe.
Merrill's ignorance might have an easy answer: she doesn't listen to Radio Dalish as often as before, as Fenris points out in Mark of the Assassin:
- Fenris: I hear there is going to be an Arlathvhen soon in Halamshiral. A large one.
- Merrill: A gathering of the clans? How do I not know about that?
- Fenris: Possibly because some elves are still willing to talk to me.
- Merrill: You've been waiting to say that, haven't you?
- Fenris: Maybe a little.
Plus, the Hinterlands are pretty shabby anyway. I think I read somewhere that it's almost completely dead thanks to the massive amount of taint it endured during the last Blight. I remember thinking that getting the Hinterlands seemed like a backhanded boon to the Dalish since the land's so wrecked that most humans and elves alike wouldn't want it anyway; and humans still threw a fit about the elves getting it!
At least part of them might not be too shabby, according to Dennet's letter. With luck, we may end up finding a codex entry about the Dalish boon. I don't expect anything else, truth be told.
As an aside, this is why I don't view Ferelden supporting a renewed Elven Dales as even vaguely realistic. If the Dalish take over the Dales and go for round two of 'close the borders and pretend humans don't exist', they will have thrown up a major roadblock across Ferelden's only overland access to anywhere. While Amaranthine has the possibility of becoming a major naval power, no sane and competent government would allow their only land trade routes to be severed.
Mm, yes, we have to take into account geostrategic elements in such a decision. Elven or not, pagan or not, creating a new nation in the Dales might change a lot of things.
Indeed, the Imperial Highway links the Orlesian Heartlands to Ferelden, and borders the Dales. I think it's not a coincidence that Halamshiral was built near the highway, not in the heart of the Dales. Jader is the frontier with Ferelden, a fortified position capable of holding off "half the dog-lords of Ferelden", according to Gaspard.
However, as you have said, Amaranthine can become a trade hub, so now Ferelden has a chance. Let's think about it:
-An independent Dales may close the Imperial Highway to trade. That's bad. Can Ferelden answer? Yes, by giving more importance to sea trade.
-An independent Dales may close the Orlesian route to Orzammar. That's good for Ferelden. Why? Because they will have the monopoly on Orzammar trade.
-An independent Dales may become a buffer state. That's good for Ferelden. Why? Because so far elven nations aren't known for their expansionist tendencies, while Orlais is.
There are more things to take into consideration than losing a common border.