It'd be more realistic to discuss whether the release will be in 2016 or 2017.
Precisely. I think a 2015 release date is all but out of the question at this point. All the Mass Effect games had trailers released at least a year before their release date. It wouldn't make sense for them to suddenly think that 6 months is enough to market a game that, while based off a spectacular franchise and universe, still has to ''clear its name'' after ME3. Regardless of anyone's thoughts about the ending, it generated a media controversy and a social media firebomb.
Bioware has always been claiming that they want to take their time when it comes to announcing and showing off their games. They've done this ever since ME3, and I find DAI did a good job of only showing up when it was ready, and not overhyping and making promises like ME3. I find the Mass Effect team has taken this philosophy even further, since we've only gotten concept art and vague statements over 2 and 1/2 years.
My point is, it doesn't make sense that they would spend so much time keeping things under wraps, only to present everyone with an info overload that may confuse not only new fans, but existing fans as well. Prequel or Sequel? Reboot or Shepard Timeline? Revisiting old locations or new locale? Milky Way or Andromeda (for all we know)?
They would want to peel back the layers one by one, and give the fans and media time to properly understand what's going on. Reboot with new species? Ok, give the fans some clarification and allow them to digest new info. 3 to 6 months later, reboot is still taking place in Shepard timeline, but alternate reality. More time to digest. Rinse and Repeat.
And if they go out of their way and immediately announce the game as a reboot/alternate universe/etc. (which they would have to do with a game so close to release), they might turn off a portion of the fanbase before they even get a chance to remind them why they loved Mass Effect in the first place.
Announce the game as a continuation on the Shepard timeline, and some people will immediately say ''No''. And they have the right to do that. But if Bioware showed a couple of trailers of cool settings, characters and storylines before being rushed into confirming important details, there is at least a chance that these fans might pay attention and give the Next Mass Effect a chance.
Long story short, this game is Q1-Q2 2016 release date for me at the moment. Game will have been in development for at least 3 and 1/2 years, which is the same if not more than DAI, which had to go suffer through a new console generation and engine (which hopefully means more dev time spent on content and features
) . Announcements and trailers at E3 2015 will give Bioware about a year to properly market the game. Releasing at that time also means little to no competition, which would surely make EA happy.
I could see it slipping to Fall 2016, but that gives it 4 years of development. Not unheard of, but definitely on the very high for a video game that isn't an MMO. SWTOR took 6 years, and I doubt the Next Mass Effect will have even a fraction of SWTOR's content level. EA would have to be betting big on it's potential. In 4 years (give or take a few months), Bioware went from ME1's release to ME3's release. Just to give an idea of how long and expensive making a video game can be, and how much a video game can drain potential short term revenue for a publisher.
This game can't go to 2017. Only way to explain a release date that late would be a development trouble or restart. Even EA can't be that patient. This is a Mass Effect game we are talking about, and while I love it to bits and believe in it's potential, the Next Mass Effect will not be making Grand Theft Auto or Elder Scrolls profits any time soon to be able to cover for such a long development time.
So, Q2 2016 for the the next edition of #Space is my best guess. Make it happen Bioware 