Ahh, this topic... still churning after all these years...
I recall responding to this long ago from a different topic question: was retreat from the Ostagar horde strategically necessary? And after all, it is the answer to this question that determines whether Loghain's decision to retreat was betrayal or militarily justified. If if wasn't necessary, Loghain's decision was betrayal; and if it was necessary, Loghain was simply making saving move. I suppose there's a 3rd option: Loghain was militarily incompetant- not plotting his personal advancement but simply wetting his pants in the situation and failing his generalship, misjudging the strength of the forces against him and tucking tail and running when he could've wiped out the existing horde then and there. How indeed was Loghain to determine decisively- given his experience primarily against the forces of his fellow humans- what kind of force the monstrous horde really presented- even despite his repeated military successes against fewer of them theretofore?.
My answer to this then was... "I don't know." The conspicuously sinister portrayal of Loghain in the cutscenes throughout the game and the massive and well-organized forces Loghain commanded during the Ostagar cutscene leave it ambiguous enough for me to not be able to state conclusively what the military situation was in the field at Ostagar. It is completely reasonable to conclude from the cutscenes and other material that Loghain used the situation to deliberately eliminate King Cailan to become Regent- not for the "good of Ferelden" but for his own personal gain, counting on mass approval for his actions- and he clearly openly underestimates the darkspawn in cutscenes after Ostagar. But it is also feasible that Loghain is simply generally a detestable character (even his proponents don't add "charismatic" to his assets), yet nevertheless correctly estimated that Ostagar was not winnable- then perhaps later botched the response to Ferelden's people and ended up in a civil war he then thought he could defeat handily. At Ostagar we get to see massive ranks of darkspawn, but potentially just as massive ranks of Loghain's troops, so there is no way to know if- Loghain as general or someone else as general that we prefer- it was even a winnable fight. The power of either side is completely ambiguous. Yes, ogres were in the darkspawn ranks, but so may have been any number of high-level warriors and rogues among the troops Loghain commanded. And Loghain did have veteran forces (some of whom we fight later on). And there were obvioulsy grunts among the darkspawn ranks which we encounter during Return to Ostagar. It is not just that Gaider has taken a non-committal stance: all the artists rendering the game's narrative have done so on this ground. Whatever stance the player takes regarding the battle- whether preference for rationalizing away Loghain's failings or ardent insistence on Loghain's betrayal- there is nothing in the narrative that can conclusively settle this question.
Ultimately it appears to me that the most decisive distillation of all factors is that Loghain tends to employ needlessly brutal methods to further unjustifiable aims, so by Landsmeet Loghain must go. I've recruited him at that point. Other games I've beheaded him. No big deal either way for me- so long as he isn't commanding any longer. (Not that the volatile Alistair appears a meaningful replacement, but...) Loghain and his gusto for civil war quagmires (and his predictable rationalizations for failing to address the darkspawn threat) have long since become an obstacle to defeating the Archdemon. But this "uiltimately" is by the end of the game, and options otherwise did not exist for our newly-inducted Warden at Ostagar. (Long before then I've already put a bullseye on his head due to my lack of forgiveness for those who try to kill me, but still...)
A more poignant question is: why didn't the Archdemon just show up at Ostagar and wipe out everyone- Cailan, Loghain, our Warden- when there was no silly Fort Drakon rooftop fight to deal with? Why wait for our Warden to get powerful before showing up at the largest city in Ferelden where the most substantive forces and resistance would be arrayed against it? Was there some reason for it to instead languish, flying about in the Deep Roads preaching to the brainless? But OK, no game that way, so... Loghain's an ass!





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