Source? I read Masked Empire, don't recall Celene pushing war with Nevarra as an active "gambit". The Nevarrans were making aggressive noises and pushing the border, but that'd be a problem *regardless* of who takes the throne.
I agree. In TME Nevarra is mentioned in the terms of "Nevarran aggression". The last time there was war it was Nevarra who took Orlesian lands from them, not the other way around. Gaspard actually wanted Ferelden as a weaker victim to bully. No Orlesian candidate has expressed any intention of invading Nevarra, and in fact Celene mentions twice the fear that Nevarra could take Orlesian lands again.
As for the idea, I see the problems. In any union, one side gets more benefits than the other. There are historical examples of that.
However, that doesn't have to mean that one side gets all the benefits and the other side only gets the drawbacks. The famous Loghain's line "Peace just means fighting someone else's enemies in someone else's war for someone else's reasons" has a corollary: peace also means someone else fighting your enemies in your wars for your reasons. It doesn't have to be a one-way alliance, if done well, and yes, there are historical examples of that too.





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