2 - What's the difference between declaring independance there or later? Either way, the mages are locked up in towers. They don't have the means to build alliances or resources while they're there. They would need to leave first to do that.
4 - Invalid point. Entirely depends on player choice.
2: The mages are able to speak with Wardens as a matter of public policy, and are almost certainly able to do so without supervision to judge by the fact that Duncan is able to ask them to work with darkspawn blood without everyone present immediately being arrested. (Yes, I see an argument that the Joining isn't technically blood magic, but I don't agree with it and I'd put good money on the less sane elements of the Templars not even understanding it despite the loophole you'd use being an adaptation of one they created.) And the mages are released to speak with and work for high-ranking nobles and even royalty. Someone with true skill could use even that to gain power, and Orsino being able to do things for Quentin under Meredith seems to me to imply that that's far from all they have. (Unless Quentin counts as a noble, but that would instead tend to prove my point that mages can get things they want through that channel.)
4: That's actually the problem. That Fiona gives in in the absence of player action is because the player needs to save her from a problem she created. I see and to some degree agree with Ian's (and your) argument that this isn't in character for her, but I don't think this argument works.





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