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[ShadowLordXII]

Out of curiosity, I decided to try and estimate Ferelden's military strength to give context to a few confusions given in the story. Some estimates are based on a few assumptions, but the game doesn't give us much.

 

Ferelden's total population is about 1,000,000 according to the Prima Official Game Guide and as the typical military is typically comprised of no more than 10 percent of the total population. Therefore, Ferelden's total military might would be about 100,000 distributed among the Royal Standing Army; the Terynirs and their banns; Arlings and the Bannorn.

 

The Royal Standing Army likely had 30,000 given how it's near-total loss at Ostagar devastated Ferelden in addition to the death of the King. Hence why Loghain's attempt to takeover the bannorn was motivated by a need to rebuild a standing army from what was lost.

 

Terynirs Highever and Gwaren probably had 10,000 with the additional consideration for the banns sworn to their service.

 

Bryce sent most of Highever's strength with Fergus to Ostagar where nearly everyone died and anyone left behind would have to contend with any troops that Howe sent to secure his control of the region.

 

Loghain on the other hand, kept his forces mostly intact by retreating from Ostagar and Gwaren itself. However, it is unlikely that the army didn't suffer anything less than moderately severe losses between the Civil War and the Blight itself.

 

Denerim, has the most populous city, would be the strongest Arling and capable of fielding 10,000.

 

Any strength that the West Hills possessed was likely lost when the Arling fell. Given it's proximity to Ferelden's southern borders, the Avvars and the more powerful Redcliffe, I doubt that it had any more than 5,000

 

Redcliffe and South Reach are mostly intact despite Redcliffe's crisis at it's capital village. I'd say 5,000 for each (I feel like I'm being generous for Redcliffe given what we saw in the game)

 

Amaranthine seemed to have been the least affected by the Blight and could probably field anywhere between 5 and 10 thousand between it's native strength and the banns sworn to the arl. Howe seemed more reliant on his strength in Denerim while Amaranthine seemed to be left by itself. Perhaps it was securing Highever and fighting any rebels there, the game doesn't say.

 

The Bannorn itself comprises of a significant portion of Ferelden's military might and thus probably had numbers ranging from 20 to 30 thousand. They likely suffered heavy losses between dealing with the Civil War and the Blight, but would still have enough of their strength intact at the Landsmeet to make a difference (or else Loghain wouldn't bother on a logical level)

 

In short, Ferelden would have lost 2/5ths of it's strength at Ostagar alone with the remainder dividing and fighting against each other. By the time that the Civil War is ended and all is put to proper order, the country likely suffered heavy losses to the half of Ferelden's strength that was not lost at Ostagar.

 

What could the Warden's army do to help?

 

We have Redcliffe which we've already listed at 5,000; Orzammar has a population of over 100,000 and so an army of at least 10,000 isn't too much of a stretch along with the addition of an unknown amount of golems if the Anvil of the Void is spared; The Dalish are too much of an unknown factor to definitively count and could measure anywhere from the 100's to the 1,000's; Mages would be in the 100's and Templars would be counted in the thousands (there are multiple templar branches in Ferelden).

 

With just these core groups, the Warden would have at least 15,000 under their command or even an upwards of 20,000 depending on the number of Dalish clans and templar branches that manage to mobile in time to make a difference.

 

Conclusion? If the Warden wanted to, they may very well have a chance of beating Loghain and his allies in the field. But whether the winner would be able to fight the Blight is a bigger concern and I highly doubt that would be possible. In fact, winning the Landsmeet is the more logical and pragmatic approach as Eamon points out. Now Ferelden's ailing strength is boasted by the much needed reinforcements from the Wardens allies and ends up saving the day (with a helpful dose of luck).

[Mike3207]

I think Duncan tells you that the darkspawn forces might number about 10,000 before the battle, just a little more than the army's forces. He tells you that shortly after he brings you to Ostagar.From that, I've always assumed the Ferelden force numbered around 10,000.Duncan clearly underestimated the number of darkspawn though.

[caradoc2000]

Their TMS was high but due to low readiness, their EMS wasn't.

[theskymoves]

I think Duncan tells you that the darkspawn forces might number about 10,000 before the battle, just a little more than the army's forces. He tells you that shortly after he brings you to Ostagar.From that, I've always assumed the Ferelden force numbered around 10,000.Duncan clearly underestimated the number of darkspawn though.

 

I looked in the toolset and can't find a dialogue for Ostagar!Duncan that mentions a specific number of 'spawns. 

 

Closest thing is a broad estimation from one path in the 'walk' conversation with Duncan, after meeting Cailan:

 

Despite the victories so far, the darkspawn horde grows larger with each passing day. By now, they look to outnumber us. I know there is an archdemon behind this. But I cannot ask the king to act solely on my feeling.

 

​Am I looking in the right place?

[Mike3207]

I looked in the toolset and can't find a dialogue for Ostagar!Duncan that mentions a specific number of 'spawns. 

 

Closest thing is a broad estimation from one path in the 'walk' conversation with Duncan, after meeting Cailan:

 

Despite the victories so far, the darkspawn horde grows larger with each passing day. By now, they look to outnumber us. I know there is an archdemon behind this. But I cannot ask the king to act solely on my feeling.

 

​Am I looking in the right place?

It's around that time period-shortly after you arrive in Ostagar. If it's not in the walk dialogue, it's pretty soon after. All I remember is this part of the dialogue-"The king's forces here number around ten thousand-by now the darkspawn just about outnumber us'. He doesn't directly mention the number of darkspawn, more it's a comment about how the darkspawn forces now outnumber the number of human forces at Ostagar.

[theskymoves]

The word "thousand" doesn't appear in Duncan's dialogue (that I can find), but I'll take your word for it. 

[luna1124]

I'll check my save pre-ostagar. Is this a generic comment or one to a specific origin warden if you know? I only remember him saying the darkspawn outnumbered the army.

[theskymoves]

I took a cursory look at Duncan's non-Ostagar dialogues (i.e., from the various origin arcs) and found this exchange, exclusive to Human Nobles (one of several paths and only occurring prior to the night attack by Howe):

 

Cousland: Are there really darkspawn in the south?
Duncan: Indeed. We spotted a horde assembling in the Korcari Wilds not three weeks ago. Luckily, King Cailan took us at our word and marshaled Ferelden's forces quickly. The first battles have already been fought. Your father and I must move quickly. 

Cousland: How many darkspawn are there?

Duncan: Thousands. Perhaps ten thousand or more in this horde. Normally, the darkspawn stay in the Deep Roads. It bodes ill that so many risk the surface.

 

*scratches head because while Duncan doesn't have a lot of dialogue files, I can't find the "The king's forces..." line in any of them*

 

*bludgeons uncooperative toolset with splintery cudgel*

 

*gives up*

[luna1124]

I'll check it tonight. You would think as many times as I played this game I would remember every line. LOL

[Kenshen]

A million total seems to high considering most of the land is farm, forest, or mountain and the few cities we see are not that big.  I wonder if that counts both elf and dwarf as well or only human.

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

I wonder if that counts both elf and dwarf as well or only human.

Well, we seem to be counting military strength, and I'm not sure the dwarves or elves do much fighting as far as Ferelden is concerned. (That said, the elves are brought along as logistical support, and there do seem to be dwarven smiths.)

[ShadowLordXII]

A million total seems to high considering most of the land is farm, forest, or mountain and the few cities we see are not that big.  I wonder if that counts both elf and dwarf as well or only human.

 

I was basing it off of the numbers given by the prima strategy guide.

[X Equestris]

I think a hundred thousand men for a feudal army is a little high. Look at medieval European armies. The only times you really saw anything like that was during the Crusades.

[bazzag]

56. the rest were cardboard cutouts and the darkspawn thought they were real

[Aimi]

Out of curiosity, I decided to try and estimate Ferelden's military strength to give context to a few confusions given in the story. Some estimates are based on a few assumptions, but the game doesn't give us much.
 
Ferelden's total population is about 1,000,000 according to the Prima Official Game Guide and as the typical military is typically comprised of no more than 10 percent of the total population. Therefore, Ferelden's total military might would be about 100,000 distributed among the Royal Standing Army; the Terynirs and their banns; Arlings and the Bannorn.

 

I think a hundred thousand men for a feudal army is a little high. Look at medieval European armies. The only times you really saw anything like that was during the Crusades.

And not even then. Crusading armies were generally quite small, numbering in the low tens of thousands in soldiers fit and capable for action. At the siege of Jerusalem in 1099, the First Crusade's soldiers may have totaled as many as fifteen thousand; at Arsuf in 1191, Richard I's united Crusader/Outremer army was maybe twenty thousand strong. Later Crusades did not significantly improve on these numbers: the Nikopolis crusaders in 1399 had maybe fifteen thousand, and the Varna crusade of 1444 - an enterprise mounted almost entirely by the Jagiełłon monarchy of Poland-Hungary-Lithuania - mustered thirty thousand at most. And those were the big engagements.

It's fair to point out that the forces that an army can directly mass on a given battlefield isn't the same thing as the full measure of the armed forces. Władysław III did not empty his kingdoms of men in order to meet the Ottoman army in battle at Varna. But at the same time, it's not totally clear what "total military" means in the OP. The OP includes the "royal standing army", the forces available to the two teyrns of Highever and Gwaren, and the forces mustered by arls and banns across the country. But the lines between soldier and civilian can be very fluid in both real life and Ferelden.

Many of the "soldiers" we see in the game are in fact relatively new recruits with a nugatory amount of training. Aveline Vallen, Warrior/Rogue Hawke, and Carver Hawke are described as signing up for Ostagar shortly before the battle. Others, such as the Redcliffe army in Origins, appear to be comprised in large part of random villagers like Tomas or Murdock. And they are augmented by "mercenaries" according to the Redcliffe representative at the party camp, a term that has been so badly misused in BioWare games that it is effectively meaningless. Do these people count towards "military strength" or not? If they do, what prevents the other 90% of the country's population from counting, too?

Which brings me to my final point, namely: that 10% number is a ballpark figure, an estimate, with essentially no predictive value. It could plausibly fluctuate five percent downward or ten percent upward, depending on the historical society. If it's even one percent off, the OP's calculations are utterly useless. There's no point in trying to estimate Ferelden's military strength with such a paucity of numbers. There's no possibility of estimating darkspawn military strength, for which we have essentially zero useful numbers. Comparing a guess with an even more wild guess is a fool's errand.

[ShadowLordXII]

 

And not even then. Crusading armies were generally quite small, numbering in the low tens of thousands in soldiers fit and capable for action. At the siege of Jerusalem in 1099, the First Crusade's soldiers may have totaled as many as fifteen thousand; at Arsuf in 1191, Richard I's united Crusader/Outremer army was maybe twenty thousand strong. Later Crusades did not significantly improve on these numbers: the Nikopolis crusaders in 1399 had maybe fifteen thousand, and the Varna crusade of 1444 - an enterprise mounted almost entirely by the Jagiełłon monarchy of Poland-Hungary-Lithuania - mustered thirty thousand at most. And those were the big engagements.

It's fair to point out that the forces that an army can directly mass on a given battlefield isn't the same thing as the full measure of the armed forces. Władysław III did not empty his kingdoms of men in order to meet the Ottoman army in battle at Varna. But at the same time, it's not totally clear what "total military" means in the OP. The OP includes the "royal standing army", the forces available to the two teyrns of Highever and Gwaren, and the forces mustered by arls and banns across the country. But the lines between soldier and civilian can be very fluid in both real life and Ferelden.

Many of the "soldiers" we see in the game are in fact relatively new recruits with a nugatory amount of training. Aveline Vallen, Warrior/Rogue Hawke, and Carver Hawke are described as signing up for Ostagar shortly before the battle. Others, such as the Redcliffe army in Origins, appear to be comprised in large part of random villagers like Tomas or Murdock. And they are augmented by "mercenaries" according to the Redcliffe representative at the party camp, a term that has been so badly misused in BioWare games that it is effectively meaningless. Do these people count towards "military strength" or not? If they do, what prevents the other 90% of the country's population from counting, too?

Which brings me to my final point, namely: that 10% number is a ballpark figure, an estimate, with essentially no predictive value. It could plausibly fluctuate five percent downward or ten percent upward, depending on the historical society. If it's even one percent off, the OP's calculations are utterly useless. There's no point in trying to estimate Ferelden's military strength with such a paucity of numbers. There's no possibility of estimating darkspawn military strength, for which we have essentially zero useful numbers. Comparing a guess with an even more wild guess is a fool's errand.

 

K, last time I base my population numbers off of a strategy guide.

 

What would be a better way to estimate Ferelden's effective military proportions if that's even possible?

[X Equestris]

And not even then. Crusading armies were generally quite small, numbering in the low tens of thousands in soldiers fit and capable for action. At the siege of Jerusalem in 1099, the First Crusade's soldiers may have totaled as many as fifteen thousand; at Arsuf in 1191, Richard I's united Crusader/Outremer army was maybe twenty thousand strong. Later Crusades did not significantly improve on these numbers: the Nikopolis crusaders in 1399 had maybe fifteen thousand, and the Varna crusade of 1444 - an enterprise mounted almost entirely by the Jagiełłon monarchy of Poland-Hungary-Lithuania - mustered thirty thousand at most. And those were the big engagements.It's fair to point out that the forces that an army can directly mass on a given battlefield isn't the same thing as the full measure of the armed forces. Władysław III did not empty his kingdoms of men in order to meet the Ottoman army in battle at Varna. But at the same time, it's not totally clear what "total military" means in the OP. The OP includes the "royal standing army", the forces available to the two teyrns of Highever and Gwaren, and the forces mustered by arls and banns across the country. But the lines between soldier and civilian can be very fluid in both real life and Ferelden.Many of the "soldiers" we see in the game are in fact relatively new recruits with a nugatory amount of training. Aveline Vallen, Warrior/Rogue Hawke, and Carver Hawke are described as signing up for Ostagar shortly before the battle. Others, such as the Redcliffe army in Origins, appear to be comprised in large part of random villagers like Tomas or Murdock. And they are augmented by "mercenaries" according to the Redcliffe representative at the party camp, a term that has been so badly misused in BioWare games that it is effectively meaningless. Do these people count towards "military strength" or not? If they do, what prevents the other 90% of the country's population from counting, too?Which brings me to my final point, namely: that 10% number is a ballpark figure, an estimate, with essentially no predictive value. It could plausibly fluctuate five percent downward or ten percent upward, depending on the historical society. If it's even one percent off, the OP's calculations are utterly useless. There's no point in trying to estimate Ferelden's military strength with such a paucity of numbers. There's no possibility of estimating darkspawn military strength, for which we have essentially zero useful numbers. Comparing a guess with an even more wild guess is a fool's errand.

On the Crusades, I meant the original numbers at the start of the march. During the Third Crusade, Holy Roman Emperor Frederick the First assembled an army that may have been as large as 100,000 men, though some historians believe those figures were exaggerated. It never reached the Holy Land, because Frederick died crossing a river, and the army splintered. During the Seventh Crusade, French King Louis IX had about 60,000 men.

In real life, you could have levied peasants for men, but their use would have been limited. Shaky morale, poor arms and armor, and likely little training makes their usefulness questionable. You might have big numbers, but that doesn't mean much.

The Redcliffe representative's comment about being a mercenary force is likely based on the fact that they have to pay for their arms and armor with their own money. A poor use of the word mercenary, but I think I get what they were going for.

The issue with this little exercise is that we don't have solid numbers on anything.

[X Equestris]

K, last time I base my population numbers off of a strategy guide.
 
What would be a better way to estimate Ferelden's effective military proportions if that's even possible?

To use medieval England as a template, in the late 11th century, it had a population of about 1 million. At the time, they supported about 5,000 landed knights. Unlanded knights would bump that up a bit. Knights usually made up 1-5% of the adult male population in the actual Middle Ages.

The ratio of knights to non-knightly combatants usually ranged from 1:1 to 1:10 depending on the time period and place.

[ShadowLordXII]

To use medieval England as a template, in the late 11th century, it had a population of about 1 million. At the time, they supported about 5,000 landed knights. Unlanded knights would bump that up a bit. Knights usually made up 1-5% of the adult male population in the actual Middle Ages.

The ratio of knights to non-knightly combatants usually ranged from 1:1 to 1:10 depending on the time period and place.

 

That makes somewhat more sense.

 

So let's say that with a knight to non-knight ratio of 1:10 (there didn't appear to be many knights in Ferelden) and assuming there are 5,000 landed/unlanded knights, would a total military force of 60,000 (with the full bannorn, the royal army and all teryns and arlings considered) be unreasonable?

[X Equestris]

That makes somewhat more sense.
 
So let's say that with a knight to non-knight ratio of 1:10 (there didn't appear to be many knights in Ferelden) and assuming there are 5,000 landed/unlanded knights, would a total military force of 60,000 (with the full bannorn, the royal army and all teryns and arlings considered) be unreasonable?

I think that would be a good estimate once all the levies were called. The knights and their men at arms would be the real power in that army.

Of course, this full strength isn't ever concentrated. Redcliffe, and probably all the Banns sworn to Eamon, doesn't show up in time. Between the attack on Highever and the skirmishes around Ostagar, Highever's forces are probably destroyed or severly weakened. Most, though not all, of the troops with Cailan were killed in the main battle at Ostagar. After Ostagar, civil war between the Bannorn and the Regency breaks out. By the time of the Battle of Denerim, I would say that Ferelden's military strength has been damaged considerably.