294 réponses à ce sujet

[Majestic Jazz]

I'll bet that original October 7th release date is starting to look pretty sweet to some people now. Move your game from a crowded October release to a more spacious November release date, and then suddenly much more high profile competition swarms that release date. If I didn't love Dragon Age this would be hilarious.

I wonder if there will be another change in the release date; for "polish" of course.

 

Who knows why they delayed it to November. They say for more polish, but it could have been for The Keep or even multiplayer. Who knows. All I know is that now, October like you have said, is starting to look like the better choice from a marketing perspective. How loud can DAI's voice been when the heavyweights of Halo, COD, and GTA V are all yelling?

[Jester]

Who knows why they delayed it to November. They say for more polish, but it could have been for The Keep or even multiplayer. Who knows. All I know is that now, October like you have said, is starting to look like the better choice from a marketing perspective. How loud can DAI's voice been when the heavyweights of Halo, COD, and GTA V are all yelling?

CoD and Halo aim for a different target audience. Of course, some people will buy both CoD and Inquisition, but the overlap is small here. 

 

In October competition is much higher. I mean, c'mon, are you comparing CoD and 2 games which are just upgraded versions of old games to brand new AAA titles like Far Cry 4 and AC 5?

[X Equestris]

Who knows why they delayed it to November. They say for more polish, but it could have been for The Keep or even multiplayer. Who knows. All I know is that now, October like you have said, is starting to look like the better choice from a marketing perspective. How loud can DAI's voice been when the heavyweights of Halo, COD, and GTA V are all yelling?

I think we can take them at their word that it's for bug squashing and polish. There isn't a ton of overlap between those games and the target audience of DAI. Two of those are just new versions of old games.

[Estel78]

It's a matter of mass social perception and marketing as an industry will look to maximize all these perceived environs rather than gambling against them.

 

This is the crux. Perception. I'm sure games could succeed in the summer just as well. Just a few precursors are needed to make people realize that.

[Estel78]

They really don't spread out movies, you have Summer Action Movie Season (May to Early Aug), Drought Season (Early Aug/Sept), Awards Season (Sept to December), Drought Season (Jan to May).  Video games are similar just shifted around more for its "Summer Action Season" is Sept to Early Dec when there is a push for Back to School (pre-exams) and the Holidays are coming up.

 

I was mainly referring to the fact that summer works for movies. However, traditional movie season seems on the way out. Summer starts ever earlier, first it was June, then it moved to May, now it's April. Some big movies have shown that you can succeed in March also. And well, the two biggest hits are December movies. And November is strong as well.

[Estel78]

I'm just glad the game doesn't have to compete against Witcher 3 this year. I don't think it would stand much of a chance over such a massively anticipated RPG.

 

As much as i love the Witcher, going by sales it's not as popular as Dragon Age. You are making it out to be this juggernaut but Witcher is not Elder Scrolls. Now, Witcher 3 might change that, time will tell.

[Wild]

come out in November, in addition to those mentioned, even Assassin's creed unity and Far cry 4 ... 

COD Personally I do not care, GTAV I've already finished at 100% and I don't want to buy it again, Assassin's creed I got bored... so I'm going to Dragon Age Inquisiton and Far cry 4.

[Neverwinter_Knight77]

Oh, don't mind me. I'm...

[AshenEndymion]

But Sales are the single most important thing for any Publisher or Developer. 

 

Sales dictate the future of the Publisher & the scope of future games for the developer. 

 

If DA:I doesn't sell enough to please the Suits, We won't see a Dragon Age game of it's scale again. That's the problem here

 

Why would EA give bioware another 60 + million dollars for a franchise that doesn't sell 4 million+ ? They won't, we will be back to 2 year Dev Cycles at best. 

 

Add to that the fact that Pretty much ALL of the November Big Boys have more established brands & Bigger User bases than Dragon Age, that pretty much takes the Mainstream gamer out of the Equation right then & there. 

 

Some how I doubt that there are 3 to 4 Million DA fans out there to pick up the slack for the first (& most important) couple of Weeks that DA:I is on store shelves. 

 

It's untimely to say the least, but I'm interested to see where the money falls come the new year 

 

It's facetious, but if DA were to sell "only" 3 million copies, it will still make ~$180 million.  Making 3 times as much money as one puts in is actually a good reason for EA to give Bioware another $60 million for the next game.

 

The production costs of Inquisition would have to total in the $150-200 million range(with under 4 million copies sold) in order for investing in a fourth game to become questionable.

[Estel78]

It's facetious, but if DA were to sell "only" 3 million copies, it will still make ~$180 million.  Making 3 times as much money as one puts in is actually a good reason for EA to give Bioware another $60 million for the next game.

 

The production costs of Inquisition would have to total in the $150-200 million range(with under 4 million copies sold) in order for investing in a fourth game to become questionable.

 

If only... It doesn't work like that. EA gets less than half of the $60 a game costs in store.

 

[anatomy of a $60 video game]

[duckley]

Shadows of Mordor for PS3 and XBOX is coming out about the same time. DA:I however will more than likely sell as expected over time.

[DooomCookie]

Dragon Age is a marathon.  RPGs aren't sexy, so it's going to have to sell via word of mouth, rather than off the hyped-up GTA V promotion.

 

EDIT: Oh, Pokemon Ruby and Sapphire remakes and the latest WoW expansion are coming out in early/mid-November as well.  Which might overlap with DAI more than Halo or CoD will.

[AshenEndymion]

If only... It doesn't work like that. EA gets less than half of the $60 a game costs in store.

 

[anatomy of a $60 video game]

 

Fair enough.

 

But, using that link as the basis, copies sold digitally would result in ~$50 of the $60 going to EA...  If even a quarter of the sales are digital copies, then any sales number higher than 3 million would result in a "profit" of  greater than $40 over a supposed $60 production cost.  It really all comes down to how much Inquisition cost to make.

 

I agree that 4 million copies sold would be a low number, at least compared to what DAI seems to be shooting for.  But it would only prevent EA from funding a fourth installment if Inquisition's cost is in the hundreds of millions...

[Jester]

If only... It doesn't work like that. EA gets less than half of the $60 a game costs in store.

 

[anatomy of a $60 video game]

Besides, not in every country new games cost $60. I live in Poland, and most new games (for PC, not for consoles) cost a local equivalent of $40-$45. 

[Mr.Hmm]

Oh man I run out LIKES ... this thread took them all ...

[nrcrane]

If this thread had not mentioned these other games... I would have never known they even existed. Different genres. I think DAI will be fine.

[Vindicare175]

Different genre's DAI will be fine. Only thing that will be dividing my gaming time with DAI is the WoW Xpac. The rest of those games are of no interest and wouldn't even consider wasting money on them (Except Farcry 4 which I just have no interest in)

[PsychoBlonde]

I just find the whole concept that video games have so little staying power that coming out alongside another game is going to seriously impact sales of either game to be rather amusing.  If two games I want to play come out the same day, I buy both of them.  Heck, I'm about to be inundated with games because I have preorders of Wasteland 2, Pillars of Eternity, AND Origins coming out over the next few months.  Oh, and my MMO is putting out a new content update, too.

If I'm not following a game so closely that I plan to preorder it, the release date means absolutely nothing to me--I probably won't even think about getting it until 3-6 months after release, anyway.  But I'm not much for impulse-buying games.  The last game I bought was Diablo III: Reaper of Souls and that came out, what, 6 months ago?

If coming out alongside other games had an actual detectable impact on sales, then publishers wouldn't cram all their releases in right before the holidays like they always do.

[kensaileo]

It's crowded actually,this will affect DAI,especially the sales number of first week. In my opinion,the final sales number of DAI maybe 3 million,for The Witcher 3, it will be 6-10 million,the discrepancy is beacause of GTA fans,COD fans,Halo fans and so on

[Vilegrim]

If the game has great reviews and a serious chance at GOTY awards, which I think it will, the word-of-mouth will be good and it will have long legs.

It's all on BioWare.

 

 

Big if.

[Jester]

It's crowded actually,this will affect DAI,especially the sales number of first week. In my opinion,the final sales number of DAI maybe 3 million,for The Witcher 3, it will be 6-10 million,the discrepancy is beacause of GTA fans,COD fans,Halo fans and so on

What part of CoD fans would buy DA:I anyway? Five percent? Ten percent? I doubt it'd be higher than that. GTA is a resell for new consoles. Someone who can afford to buy almost the same game twice, will be able to afford DA:I surely. 

 

Witcher 3 unfortunately will have to compete with at least Batman: Arkham Knight. 

Also, 3 million copies total of DA:I would be an incredible failure, considering that DA:O sold over 3 million copies in 3 months. 

[kensaileo]

What part of CoD fans would buy DA:I anyway? Five percent? Ten percent? I doubt it'd be higher than that. GTA is a resell for new consoles. Someone who can afford to buy almost the same game twice, will be able to afford DA:I surely. 

 

Witcher 3 unfortunately will have to compete with at least Batman: Arkham Knight. 

Also, 3 million copies total of DA:I would be an incredible failure, considering that DA:O sold over 3 million copies in 3 months. 

But skyrim sold more than 20 million copies,Are they all TES fans or are they all rpg fans?

I have seen so many people-FPS fans,gta fans-draw attenion to TW3 for its trailer and demo(especially the sword of destiny trailer and the 37 minutes demo),they said they will buy it,for DAI,these people don't even know it's an open world or differences from DA2!

[Jester]

But skyrim sold more than 20 million copies,Are they all TES fans or are they all rpg fans?

I have seen so many people-FPS fans,gta fans-draw attenion to TW3 for its trailer and demo(especially the sword of destiny trailer and the 37 minutes demo),they said they will buy it,for DAI,these people don't even know it's an open world or differences from DA2!

Well, DA:I is not open world. Not in the same sense as Witcher 3 will be. It has large locations, but they are no continous connections between them - thus it's not open world, it's a large semi-open world. 

 

Skyrim's marketing managed to blow the hype for this game to a preposterous size. Kudos for them. But the game itself was disappointing - at least from an RPG perspective. It was a good sandbox/open world game, and thus achieved enormous success. The thing is, that RPGs sell a lot worse than FPS and action games. That's because it's a genre that demands more from the player. People were drawn to Skyrim, because it gave the player ability to do whatever they want. No obligation to follow the story, do whatever you want, go wherever you want... Appeals to a much greater variety of people than story and character driven RPG.

 

Witcher 3 is getting hyped, because it promises to give the best of the two combined (and I sincerely believe, they can pull that off - so far only Fallout: NV was close to achieving that - it was far from perfect, but it come closest). It is also getting hyped for very good visuals and dynamic combat system. And also because (sorry to say that) CD Projekt RED treats it's customers far better than EA (or Ubisoft, Activision...) does - and it's being recognized. 

 

Dragon Age is I believe still targeted at it's particular audience - those expecting a story and character driven experience, with a party based, tactical combat. And I think that at least for now, it should stay that way. I believe it's more important to have a devoted fanbase as a foundation, which you can then expand into more 'casual' (I use that word in by no means an insulting context - I mean players who do not concentrate on a particular franchise/genre, I can't find a better word now) community, without compromising your fans.

After the failure that DA2 was to a fanbase (it was not a bad game per se, but it was bad at elements that BioWare usually excel at), the most important thing for the company is regaining trust - at least in my opinion.

 

Sales will come on they own - they can easily beat Origin sales, if the game is good. In fact, BioWare seems to be on the right track this time - DA2 compromised story, decisions, inventory system... for more action (gameplay focused heavily on combat and not much else) and faster pace. DA:I seems to expand on elements that appeal to both 'casual' (again, context as above) and hardcore fanbase - like graphics, Skyhold (every player likes a customizable seat of power), combat (they seem to have found a middle ground here), larger areas and exploration (without making it a full open world, which risks watering down the story). 

I strongly believe, that DA:I will sell great. Selling only 3 million copies is unrealistic. I'm pretty confident that they'll net 5+ million copies in half a year. At worst case.

[searunner]

Actually here is whats going to happen. Releasing on this day will massively boost sales becasue people who have never heard of DAI will be picking up their other game and be like. "Oh ill try this one too". Boom sale boost.


I have just as much fact to back this up as anyone elses theory in this thread.


Using "the anatomy of a 60 dollar game" if the game sells 2.5 million copies in countries with that price point it'll make over 60 million dollars. If by the first price drop it sells 5 million it'll make over 120 million. SWTOR cost around that to make if I remember correctly. I am not too worried about the game's survivability.

[Dr. Rush]

I actually don't think it is that bad. Yes, it is definitely crowded, but it has been this way for YEARS.

 

All the same marketers keep running the same plays out of the same playbook they all got in their official marketing college courses. They would still rather go head-to-head in the holiday season, all densely packed in the first 2 weeks of November than spread their releases out. So I say, whatever, if EA and Ubisoft and Microsoft and Activision all want to fight over the same 2 weeks in november, that is their business and their problem. 

 

They could choose not to, they could choose any other part of the year, but they are so convinced that this is the most profitable time of the year. Frankly, I think it is foolish, but it is their job to sell as many units as they can, so if this is what they have to do, it doesn't bother me much. Though it does speak to consumers in a less than flattering way, but I won't bother with that. Consumers have a lot of problems that are directly exploited by companies, so really, until consumers stop behaving in such predictable ways, we won't see publishers stop responding in such equally predictable ways.