So, you believe he had no ulterior motives? No taking advantage of civil war?
I can't respond to everything in the depth I'd like, but suffice to say I figure altruism is a concept that doesn't exist. That is to say, something is done solely for noble and selfless reasons.
That isn't to say, however, that altruism would not play a part in why something is done.
So do I believe Orsino was partially acting out of altruistic reasons? Yes. Do I believe he was doing something that would inexorably benefit the Mages? Well, yeah, that much is obvious.
The fact is that Meredith legally overstepped her bounds by placing herself in the Viscount's Seat and barring any election from taking place, a continuation of the Templars having broken the law when they assumed political prestige following the Threnhold Uprising. As such, she should've been shipped to Val Royeaux. She is keeping Kirkwall from being able to rule itself, and under her thumb all of the people suffer. Mage, non-mage, child or elderly, man or woman, etc.
So yes, him reminding the nobility that they need not bow down to her whims and accept her tyranny does carry with it some sense of ulterior motives. But that's because he's First Enchanter. With Meredith gone and removed, everyone benefits. But he is clearly acting with the best interest of everyone at heart.
Frankly, I don't think he wants a war to happen, given how distraught he is that war inevitably came in the end. What he wants is for the pot to be stirred so much that it can't help but garner outside attention that will actually pay attention to things. Either the nobility force Meredith to step down and Kirkwall returns to as close to normal as that hellhole has ever gotten, or **** starts to get crazy such that the outside world beyond Kirkwall notices, investigates, and properly deals with it.
Regardless, it's all moot because whatever Orsino's intentions were, whether they were purely noble or operating with a sense of ulterior motives behind it all, he was in the right. Meredith accuses him of treason when his very arguments were actually solid.
That the Templars have no place in the political scene, that their duty is to guard the Mages and Chantry, that Meredith has consistently refused to listen to reason.
I do not because the quote speaks in general terms and adresses those who are meant to be protected by the Circle. That is to say the normal people of Thedas.
The quote is, as far as I'm aware, never heard in-game so what context it's said in is left up to us. Given Orsino's constant "anti-Meredith, pro-Circle, accepting of working with Templars/Chantry" attitude in game, I'm led to believe that what he is talking about is purely how Meredith confines the Mages to their cells and denies them even basic things like being able to step outside and breathe the fresh air.
All evidence of how Meredith, under the influence of Red Lyrium, has become abusive to everyone, not just mages.
But is is irrelevant when discussing Orsino's beliefs against the Circle system as a whole, whether under a Meredith or a Gregoir.
It absolutely is relevant, because things do not exist in a vacuum. What he says to Meredith is drawn from how Meredith herself operates within the city. If he had been an outspoken critic of Knight-Commander Guylian's methods, who was the presiding KC at a time when the Circle of Kirkwall wasn't a bad place to live, you'd have a point that he is against the Circle system on the whole.
You say he's against the Circle. Then why is it he makes it a point to remind Meredith of what her duty is? That when the war finally comes in the end thanks to Anders' boneheaded actions, he's not saying "Well ****** finally." but rather in a despondent tone "So it's come to this...".
The man does not want war. He does not want the Circles to be removed.
Him being a Lucrosian makes the most sense, if we're to say he operates exclusively within one fraternity. However, I'd ask you a question: Do you not think there's going to be some overlap between fraternity members? That a Libertarian might not wish to combat the idea of the Circle through Lucrosian methods? It's a very narrow viewpoint to think that you must be either/or, rather then potentially two or more.
I'd be willing to grant that he could be a mix of Libertarian/Lucrosian, but you'd have to show me evidence of him actually being a Libertarian. What you have shown me isn't sufficient, because you take "Stands up for his charges" as a sign of "Doesn't like the Circle".
Ok, so what if Hawke finds proof of something sinister? Is he actually going to go to the Templars?
Doubtful, considering it would have made asking Hawke pointless. After all, if he fully intended to inform the Templars if blood magic was being used, just tell the Templars what you know from the begginning.
You have no evidence to say that he didn't tell the Templars what he knew. Meredith said she demanded explicitly detailed information, which Orsino didn't have. For all we know he did tell her that he noticed some of his charges were missing, but told her he couldn't explain why, and she wouldn't believe him.
EDIT: Correction -- she says she wanted more detailed accounts, which indicates that Orsino did tell her what little he knew.
What he knew is the same as Meredith. People are disappearing, there's a meeting in Hightown tonight.
Orsino was right that Meredith sees blood magic in every corner. She says that "muddy boots" is evidence of Mages performing their "dark rituals". She's a paranoid fool made more so by the Red Lyrium she's had since Act 2. You cannot work with a person as paranoid as she is. Because nothing you do will ever quell their paranoia. If he had told her about the meeting, the Mages and Templars there would've been killed, the Circle would be in a tighter grip in her hand because of it, and she'd still think Orsino was involved.
The very idea that maybe, just maybe, her Templars are doing this of their own volition is absolutely unthinkable to her. That her Templars might not all be supportive of her draconian measures. Nope, it's blood magic that's made them do all this.
In all scenarios, she leaps to the worst possible conclusion and takes it as the fact of the matter. When the dust has settled in this quest, telling her the First Enchanter bears no part in the conspiracy doesn't have her say "Well, I guess I was wrong." but rather "HE'S JUST MORE CUNNING THEN I THOUGHT BUT HE'S DEFINITELY INVOLVED."
Contrast to Orsino who goes "Okay, so maybe I've exaggerated just how cuckoo Meredith is."
You paint Orsino as this man who wants to remove the Circles, yet every inch of him says that he advocates for the Circles to exist, for the Mages to have a home they can practice together. He respects the Chantry and Templars and does wish to work with them, but how can he when the Order of Kirkwall is so rotten that it fails to properly police its own members who violate the code of what it means to be a Templar? Where their own will lock the mages away in their cells, no light or air available to them, sometimes beating them or starving them. Where members like Karras will infiltrate the cells of Mages like Alain to use their domineering status and authority over them as a means to get what they want.
You want him to work with the Templars, that is a noble sentiment. But it only works if the party one works with is capable of functioning on its own.
Specifically, when a group of people are given life-or-death authority over another, such that they have "dominance over them by divine right", it is up to that group to show to those they have such power over that they can be trusted with it. That is to say, the Templars have such unquestionable authority over the Mages that the burden is on them to work with the Mages, not the other way around.
The first clue is his quote. There, he clearly shows resentment towards the non-magical population of Kirkwall.
You assume that the context of "Freedom" is the same as say... Fiona or Adrian's notion of freedom.
Freedom is entirely relative to the individual. Anders wants total abolition of the Circle system, whereas Mages like Finn find freedom in being able to stay indoors where it's nice and warm and cozy.
Freedom in Orsino's case likely stems from a mindset of "don't ****** imprison us in our cells all day, take away our food, beat us, rape us, take away the material we need to actually learn magic, let us walk freely among the Gallows without fear" and so on.
Th extremists in Kirkwall really don't pay any distinction between human and elf mages and human and elf mage sympathizers. They hate them all equally.
A very poor argument, though the reasons for it being poor are such that I cannot get into without the mods bringing the banhammer down on me. Suffice to say, going "Well I don't see race in this scenario" or "They don't see race" is not the best argument, because race is always a factor.
That same Templar that tortured a Dalish kid? Yeah, she says she doesn't care one inkling for those "knife-ears". When you pepper your language with racist epithets, you very much are paying distinction between human and elf mages/sympathizers.
It'd be like saying just because Howe shows sexism to a female Cousland, he wouldn't show both racism and sexism to a female Elf. Or that because he despises the Wardens in general, he's not a racist, sexist bastard.
Then, there is Quentin. Orsino knew what he was doing; he may not have known it since the beginning but he learned of it and he made the choice of not informing the Templars.
For very valid reasons.
Despite the fact that he would've known nothing about it until it was too late, Meredith wouldn't have cared. She would've seen his link to Quentin as being evidence that the Circle was corrupt all the way through, regardless of him being completely remorseful and full of regret for his part in it. If she didn't call for the RoA, she would've certainly clamped down tighter on the Mages and fed the spiral further.
Being vigilant is one thing, being extreme is another.
What we know Orsino knew is that when he was given the Harvester ritual, that was the moment he realized how deranged his former colleague from Starkhaven was. Because of the depths of the **** Quentin was dealing with, it showed how deeply unhinged he was, likely because he thought what he was doing was magnificent.
Let's assume Meredith would've been reasonable had he told her. Do you think her subordinates would have? I don't. And given Meredith's flagrant refusal to properly reign in her subordinates for their crimes, who knows how many Mages would've suffered under their heel, possibly being killed in the process and their deaths covered up with "He/She was using blood magic! I was only defending myself!"
If you need Orsino to prostrate himself at Meredith's feet, offering up every conceivable iota of information possible, just for you to view him as being a good person -- regardless of how many people might've been damned by such a thing -- then I can't get behind that. Under the circumstances, I would've done the same thing Orsino did.
Besides, the Templars had shown their incompetence with that quest arc from the get-go by failing to lock down a place where Demons popped up after someone fled the scene. Hawke walked in, saw Quentin (which he can report to Emeric), Quentin ran, Hawke walks in further, and Demons pop up. And neither the Templars nor City Guard did anything about it.
This is not the extent of the information the Templars/City Guard had. For instance, the same foundry was also where Mharen's trail stopped cold. That Ninette's severed hand was found in a site of magical activity where a Mage's phylactery also led to merits further investigation, particularly when both women and two others share a common feature: having all received white lilies from an unknown suitor.
One could, perhaps rightfully, argue that it was due to Meredith's methods but it does indicate that, in order to protect the mages, Orsino was willing to sacrifice Quentin's victims.
And it's something he's not happy with having to have done, to have protected forty lives at the cost of four people of Kirkwall.
And, finally, his action of becoming an Harvester. Had it slain Hawke and the Templars, it would have likely killed thousands of innocent Kirkwallers.
Assuming it can swim or operate a boat.
Which would make for a funny image, but I doubt it would happen. The boat would be crushed beneath its weight and that thing's body is incapable of being able to swim.