Yup.
It's a long time since I played anything on PC and, having been converted to the Dark Side (i.e. console gaming), I can say that one of the chief advantages of playing on a little box under the TV is that you can buy the game off the shelf, take it home, put the disk in the slot and it will play. There is nothing to enable or disable. There are no web addresses or file names that need to be manually changed. There is no waiting for hours while it installs. There are no questions about whether your machine has the right specs. It's simple and immediate plug-in and play.
For a huge number of DA:I players therefore, having to go online at all is going to seem unnecessary. They'll do it, but it will feel like an extra step they shouldn't have to make. Now, having gone online, will it do what they expect it to? No. Many of them will be expecting it to import their saves, so no, it won't. Is that their fault? Despite what a few people on here are saying, no, I don't believe it is. Most of them have probably never visited these forums. A small percentage of them may read gaming magazines or websites, but even some of the journalists are hedging their bets and being ambiguous in the way they describe what the Keep is for. So, yes, they'll be ignorant, but it won't be their fault.
And what will they find when they do get online? They have to open an Origin account which most of them won't already have. They'll have to download the Origin client because that isn't automatic. They'll have to link their XBL and/or PSN accounts even though nothing on their Origin homepage tells them how to do it. Only then can they even try to use the Keep.
And if, after all that, it doesn't work correctly first time? There will be anger and frustration and a repeat of the ME3 backlash. Is it their fault? No, it's the fault of everyone who's said or implied that it's an easy or straightforward process. For some, it obviously will be, especially if they already have Origin set up, use the BSN forums regularly and are used to games having to be tinkered with. But, for an awful lot of gamers, it's going to seem like a lot of extra time and effort before they can even start to play the game. And that's not going to go down well, especially if people try to tell them it's somehow their own fault.
Nail -> Head
Very well put, Dajb.
To put it in a much shorter version...
I strongly suspect that casual players will be very annoyed with the Keep.
Hell.. I've been paying attention to DAI for a several months now, and I'm disappointed.
For BW to reduce the backlash, I suspect, is coming I'd suggest:
1) Remove the auto-sync. Make a button and make a clear statement, next to that button, that all that's being 'synced' is achievement data.
2) Drop the Hero/Hawke import altogether and let us name our Hero/Hawke in the Tapestry.
Losing the Hero/Hawke portrait import (and lets face it, that's all we'd really be losing) might upset a few die-hard fans, but it'd help remove any illusion of a game save import for the more casual players that haven't been following every tid-bit of DAI/Keep news.