46 réponses à ce sujet

[Krothar]

I suppose it could be any number. Hidden apostates are hidden.

[EmperorSahlertz]

1-2% is waaaaaaay too many. Mages are NOT more common than redheads..

[Inquisitor Julianos]

hmm but seeing as qunari shun and torture there Mages i would assume the atrition rates are high and that young sound to have magic would be killed. that is just speculation though. look at the Serrebas

elves would have a higher number due to natural affinitys.

humans at the average

and dwarves having 2 in most of there history.

Well Magic is a Tool, so i would not see mages being slaughtered in Qunari society, more along the lines of them being regulated and "Qunari Safety protocols" thrown into effect.

 

 

Ohhh I want to romance your avatar...

 

Carry on.

 

Lulz!!

Thought I was the only one. xD

 Thank you, thank you, you all flatter me

[Primorus]

I am resurrecting this thread to share my thoughts on this. 

 

Let's look at instances where specific numbers were given.

 

Ferelden (Origins)

In Origins, Duncan tells the mage warden that when the Grey Wardens sent out a call to fight the Blight, the Circle sent only seven (7) mages. That figure prompts the response "seven mages is a lot". If Ferelden had in the order of 10,000 mages, or even just 1,000, a total of seven sorcerers is a paltry commitment indeed, and certainly incongruous with the implications in the dialogue. For seven mages to be a respectable number, it must needs represent at least 5% of the Circle membership, if not more.

 

Less indicative, but still worth mentioning, is that in the Battle of Denerim you can call on 12 mages as reinforcements. I say this is less indicative because even larger factions such as the Redcliffe militia and Dwarves only provide 50 units each, making for a total of 162 additional soldiers to, supposedly, fight their way through a city swarming with darkspawn. Obviously it is an arbitrary limit. Yet, the fact that there are fewer mages as compared to other factions demonstrates that they simply don't have the same numbers.

 

In all, I'd say there are probably between 150-300 mages in Ferelden. 

 

Kirkwall (DA2)

It is extremely important to remember that Thedas is based heavily on medieval Europe. I see people suggesting figures in the thousands for the number of mages in Kirkwall alone, and this simply is not a reasonable number given the size of medieval settlements. The largest cities in Europe, such as Paris, only had 100,000 - 200,000 people. Most cities were not even 10,000 people, and yet could still be considered large. Kirkwall's population likely does not exceed 100,000, and there certainly isn't 1 mage per 10 (or even 100) non-mages. This means that the ratio of mages in Kirkwall is probably less than 1% and, therefore, under 1,000. 

 

Kirkwall is also the largest circle because they accepted the mages of Starkhaven after its circle was burned down. In essence, it is two normal circles put together. If Ferelden's circle was upwards of 300, I'd expect each of the Free Marches to have circles of about 100-250. 

 

In all, I'd say Kirkwall's circle was probably a maximum of 500. 

 

Andoral's Reach (Asunder)

When Rhys fled with the mages of Orlais -- now apostates -- to Andoral's Reach, their numbers were described as "several hundred". This probably represents all the non-Loyalists of Orlais, meaning that in all of Orlais there may be, at most, upwards of 1,000 mages. 

 

Adding It Up...

Concrete numbers are sparse in the Dragon Age series, and outright absent for many significant areas (such as Tevinter). From what we can tell, there are probably between 2,000 and 3,000 mages in southern Thedas (Orlais, Free Marches, Ferelden). Then there's Antiva, Rivain, the Anderfells, and Tevinter. Even with all of these put together, though, I have difficulty envisioning the total number being as high as 10,000. 

 

I would conservatively offer my estimate of the total number of mages in Thedas as being between 5,000 and 8,000. This would include apostates (that being: mages not part of a Circle, nor aligned with the Chantry, nor aligned with the Inquisition) and Dalish. This number would be my estimate for before the Mage-Templar war. How many died in that conflict... well... I suspect we will never know. 

[sandalisthemaker]

Vivienne says that the mages are fighting in a war in which they are "outnumbered 100 to 1."

 

Whether she means 100 non-mages per every mage or 100 *templars* for every mage is unclear. If it's the former, then mages can be said to make up roughly 1% of the population.  If it's the latter, then their numbers are far fewer than that. 

 

Mage numbers could be greater in Tevinter if they actually are able to breed for mages, and  two magister parents actually can reliably and regularly produce mage children.  But this isn't really made clear by Dorian. 

[Former_Fiend]

Vivienne always talked about the rebellion as if it wasn't simply a rebellion against the Templars or the Chantry, but against all the people of Thedas. Whether or not she actually believed that or was just demonizing the rebels to make herself look better is impossible to know, I believe when she said "100 to 1", she meant it in reference to the whole of the population of Southern Thedas, 

[Ghost Gal]

They're really inconsistent with the numbers and implied strength of the group.

 

Sometimes they imply mages are barely a fraction of the population, while other times they imply that for every mage in the Circle there's 2-4 hiding in plain sight all over the country said Circle is located in.

 

Sometimes they imply it's damn foolish of mages to even think about rising up because "they're outnumbered 1/100," while other times they imply that one mage is strong enough to take out dozens of soldiers by themselves, while a large group can take on an army, while the combined efforts of dozens of mages can create another Imperium.

 

Which is it, BioWare? Are mages such a piddling fraction of a fraction that they're little to no consequence, or are they a good ten or so percent of the population that pose a problem since one mage can take on ten non-Templar muggles easily?

[Primorus]

The oft-cited "100 to 1" figure strikes me as not being literal, but rather an idiomatic expression. For example, if I asked you the odds of winning the lottery, you might offhandedly respond with "one in a million". In reality, your odds are around 176 million, but the phrase "one in a million" conveys the same sentiment without requiring that you break out your calculator.

 

When Vivienne says mages are outnumbered "100 to 1", it means to me that they haven't a hope of winning a pitched battle against their enemies, not that if you physically lined everyone up on the field of battle their enemies (templars plus whatever Andrastian levies would be mustered) would have a line 100 times longer. 

 

Also, in regards to the threat mages pose to Thedas, the epilogue of Awakening has Anders roasting hundreds of darkspawn if he is left to defend Vigil's Keep). In Origins, one of the templars in the mage origin said that there was "power enough in this place [the Circle tower] to destroy all of Ferelden". If that can be accomplished by a few hundred mages, it showcases exactly why the common folk of Thedas rely on the templars for defence. Templars are the only ones who can bolster an army against any number of mages. This is why, before the templar order was founded, Tevinter pretty much had run of the whole continent. 

[BloodKaiden]

Whatever the number may be it is highly unlikely that Mages have to worry about dying out entirely with the Thedas world as it is. Two mundune parents can produce a mage.

[Nixou]

Vivienne mentions mages behing outnumbered one hundred to one in a conversation, although I don't know whether it's an accurate measure or a figure of speech.

 

***

 

Whatever the number may be it is highly unlikely that Mages have to worry about dying out entirely with the Thedas world as it is. Two mundune parents can produce a mage. 

 

 

I suspect that's because everyone with elven ancestors is a latent mage: my pet theory is that Tevinter was founded by elf-blooded human mages who enslaved their elven cousins, then spent centuries raping their servants, producing countless more elf-blooded bastards who in turn had children of their own, to the point where virtually every human in Thedas is descended from Elves and therefore a latent mage, most of whom never manifest their gifts.

[Korva]

They're really inconsistent with the numbers and implied strength of the group.

Yep. I don't think they ever sat down and made a binding decision as to how likely a mage-birth is and whether that likelihood differs between "normal" human cultures, mage-supremacist Tevinter with its eugenics program, the qunari, or the Dalish. They just have as many (or few) mages with as much (or little) power as the story they have in mind demands, just as other aspects of their stories are not informed by in-world logic but by whatever makes for the most "drama". The Divine candidacy, for example.

 

That said, when Cullen tells that story of a recruit walking into the dining hall in nothing but his underpants, he states that "seventy mages and thirty templars" were the bemused audience. The lighthearted tone of the story makes it likely that it happened in Ferelden instead of Kirkwall, but seventy mages strikes me as too low a number for the sole Circle in the whole country ... even considering that Kinloch Hold was said to be quite liberal and probably allowed more mages to live off-premises than most other Circles did.

[Evamitchelle]

I am resurrecting this thread to share my thoughts on this. 
 
Let's look at instances where specific numbers were given.

Very well-researched post, though I do have some significant objections.
 

Ferelden (Origins)
In Origins, Duncan tells the mage warden that when the Grey Wardens sent out a call to fight the Blight, the Circle sent only seven (7) mages. That figure prompts the response "seven mages is a lot". If Ferelden had in the order of 10,000 mages, or even just 1,000, a total of seven sorcerers is a paltry commitment indeed, and certainly incongruous with the implications in the dialogue. For seven mages to be a respectable number, it must needs represent at least 5% of the Circle membership, if not more.
 
Less indicative, but still worth mentioning, is that in the Battle of Denerim you can call on 12 mages as reinforcements. I say this is less indicative because even larger factions such as the Redcliffe militia and Dwarves only provide 50 units each, making for a total of 162 additional soldiers to, supposedly, fight their way through a city swarming with darkspawn. Obviously it is an arbitrary limit. Yet, the fact that there are fewer mages as compared to other factions demonstrates that they simply don't have the same numbers.
 
In all, I'd say there are probably between 150-300 mages in Ferelden.

7 mages doesn't need to represent 5% of the total Circle membership, only of the total Harrowed mages. Untested mages are not allowed out of the tower in normal circumstances, sending them into active combat would be pretty much unthinkable. And according to the Hierarchy of the Circle codex entry: “the untested apprentices are the most numerous denizens of any tower”.  
 

Kirkwall (DA2)
It is extremely important to remember that Thedas is based heavily on medieval Europe. I see people suggesting figures in the thousands for the number of mages in Kirkwall alone, and this simply is not a reasonable number given the size of medieval settlements. The largest cities in Europe, such as Paris, only had 100,000 - 200,000 people. Most cities were not even 10,000 people, and yet could still be considered large. Kirkwall's population likely does not exceed 100,000, and there certainly isn't 1 mage per 10 (or even 100) non-mages. This means that the ratio of mages in Kirkwall is probably less than 1% and, therefore, under 1,000. 
 
Kirkwall is also the largest circle because they accepted the mages of Starkhaven after its circle was burned down. In essence, it is two normal circles put together. If Ferelden's circle was upwards of 300, I'd expect each of the Free Marches to have circles of about 100-250. 
 
In all, I'd say Kirkwall's circle was probably a maximum of 500.

Kirkwall and the other Marcher cities are city-states, which tend to be larger than regular cities. A cursory search on Wikipedia told me that the largest Italian city-states like Milan and Venice had a population of about 200,000 people in 1300. Other major ones like Genoa and Florence had about 100,000. Starkhaven, Kirkwall and Tantervale are described as the most powerful, Starkhaven being the biggest. So a population of 200,000 people for Kirkwall seems achievable. Starkhaven and Tantervale would be around the same size. These are the biggest cities in the Free Marches, but there are other cities:

• Ostwick is where the Qunari invaders landed
• Ansburg is described as a bustling center of agricultural trade
• Markham has one of the largest universities in Thedas, and is a center for agricultural research
• Hasmal gets a regular influx of Tevinter refugees
• Wycome has less than a third of the population of Val Royeaux but is still the second-biggest importer of Antivan wine (not much is known about Val Royeaux's population except that their alienage alone is said to have over 10,000 elves. And we can assume that humans outnumber elves because Halamshiral with its majority of elves and lack of alienage is treated as an anomaly)
• Hercinia is a palatial city-state who gets lots of taxes and raider activities.

The Free Marches are described as being the “breadbasket of Thedas”, and its farms alongside the Minanter river are the source of much of the continent's food. Not sure if those people would be counted as part of the city population (some codex entries mention the presence of villages near major cities), but at least it shows that the Free Marches are capable of supporting a rather large population.

There are 9 major cities in the Free Marches but only 6 Circles: Ansburg, Hasmal, Kirkwall, Markham, Ostwick and Starkhaven. Note that Tantervale does not have one. The cities who lack Circles would still have mages, and those mages would need to be sent somewhere. Since Kirkwall is one of the larger city-states, it would make sense that it'd have one of the larger Circles, and that they'd be able to take in more mages than the smaller Marcher cities. Apparently, they even take in mages from cities with Circles, as shown by Orsino, who was sent to the Gallows despite living in Ansburg.

Tl;dr: Kirkwall's a very large city-state, the Free Marches in general have a lot of people and Kirkwall would have to take in a lot of mages from other cities which lack Circles and from the countryside. As a result I think 500 is severely underestimating the number of mages in the Gallows.
 

Andoral's Reach (Asunder)
When Rhys fled with the mages of Orlais -- now apostates -- to Andoral's Reach, their numbers were described as "several hundred". This probably represents all the non-Loyalists of Orlais, meaning that in all of Orlais there may be, at most, upwards of 1,000 mages. 
 
Adding It Up...
Concrete numbers are sparse in the Dragon Age series, and outright absent for many significant areas (such as Tevinter). From what we can tell, there are probably between 2,000 and 3,000 mages in southern Thedas (Orlais, Free Marches, Ferelden). Then there's Antiva, Rivain, the Anderfells, and Tevinter. Even with all of these put together, though, I have difficulty envisioning the total number being as high as 10,000. 
 
I would conservatively offer my estimate of the total number of mages in Thedas as being between 5,000 and 8,000. This would include apostates (that being: mages not part of a Circle, nor aligned with the Chantry, nor aligned with the Inquisition) and Dalish. This number would be my estimate for before the Mage-Templar war. How many died in that conflict... well... I suspect we will never know.

Antiva, Rivain and the Anderfels seem to have one Circle each, which makes sense since they generally seem less populated than the nations of Southern Thedas. But Tevinter alone has 7 Circles, which is more than 3 times the number of any other nation in Southern Thedas apart from the Free Marches (which isn't really a nation). Being in a Circle is also not mandatory for mages in Tevinter, it's actually seen as a privilege. And unlike in the South, being a mage in Tevinter is actively encouraged. The upper classes try breeding the best mages possible, were also said to track the lineages of every family who'd ever produced a mage, while the soporati pretty much dream of producing a mage child to become Laetans. Minrathous is also the largest city in Thedas. Basically, Tevinter alone has probably more mages than most of the other nations combined.

 

A lot of fringe groups seem to be rather more accepting of mages than the Chantry: the Dalish, the Avvar, the Rivaini etc. It'd make sense that they'd have a higher percentage of mages than the Andrastian population, if only because they don't try to murder children who show signs of magic (see: the superstition that says drowning young children can get rid of their magic). It's kind of hard to say how many of them there'd be however. The Grey Wardens also have mages of their own, though they mostly recruit those from the Circles. 

All in all, I don't think 10,000 is unattainable at all. It might be a lot by Medieval standards, but Thedas has never really been strictly medieval: their technology in particular seems to be getting more and more modern. They have the printing press (quest in Origins has you hunting for a Proving Receipt that is said to be printed in the Proving Grounds, the fact that Varric's books are best-sellers across all of Southern Thedas necessitates this as well), the Qunari have naval artillery, Bianca has invented a couple of steam-powered machines etc. So what might seems high for Europe of the Middle-Ages might not be so high for Thedas. 

[Primorus]

7 mages doesn't need to represent 5% of the total Circle membership, only of the total Harrowed mages. Untested mages are not allowed out of the tower in normal circumstances, sending them into active combat would be pretty much unthinkable. And according to the Hierarchy of the Circle codex entry: “the untested apprentices are the most numerous denizens of any tower”.  

 

I wholeheartedly agree with this point, and I thank you for bringing it up. I would revise my estimates based on this as follows: 

 

50% of a Circle population is apprentices 

35% are bona fide Mages 

15% are Tranquil

 

I would estimate, based on this, that Ferelden's circle population includes upwards of 150 mages (still around that arbitrary 5% figure we are supposing for 7 mages to be considered "a lot"), and 400 people in total. 

 

 

 

Kirkwall and the other Marcher cities are city-states, which tend to be larger than regular cities. A cursory search on Wikipedia told me that the largest Italian city-states like Milan and Venice had a population of about 200,000 people in 1300. Other major ones like Genoa and Florence had about 100,000. Starkhaven, Kirkwall and Tantervale are described as the most powerful, Starkhaven being the biggest. So a population of 200,000 people for Kirkwall seems achievable. Starkhaven and Tantervale would be around the same size. These are the biggest cities in the Free Marches, but there are other cities:

[...]

The Free Marches are described as being the “breadbasket of Thedas”, and its farms alongside the Minanter river are the source of much of the continent's food. Not sure if those people would be counted as part of the city population (some codex entries mention the presence of villages near major cities), but at least it shows that the Free Marches are capable of supporting a rather large population.

There are 9 major cities in the Free Marches but only 6 Circles: Ansburg, Hasmal, Kirkwall, Markham, Ostwick and Starkhaven. Note that Tantervale does not have one. The cities who lack Circles would still have mages, and those mages would need to be sent somewhere. Since Kirkwall is one of the larger city-states, it would make sense that it'd have one of the larger Circles, and that they'd be able to take in more mages than the smaller Marcher cities. Apparently, they even take in mages from cities with Circles, as shown by Orsino, who was sent to the Gallows despite living in Ansburg.

Tl;dr: Kirkwall's a very large city-state, the Free Marches in general have a lot of people and Kirkwall would have to take in a lot of mages from other cities which lack Circles and from the countryside. As a result I think 500 is severely underestimating the number of mages in the Gallows.

 

When I speculated a figure of 100,000 for Kirkwall's population, I did base it on the Italian city-states. While a figure of 200,000 could certainly be achievable for Kirkwall after they accepted buttloads of Ferelden refugees, the number seemed exceptionally large for a starting population. I don't really have anything to cite for this, nor do I think the developers even had a concrete number in mind, but having studied medieval history extensively (I minored in it) I would estimate from Kirkwall's infrastructure and geographic parameters that the number is closer to 100,000. Again, I could be wrong. 

 

On to the number of mages, then. I would again like to emphasize that medieval settlements could be only 1,000-residents strong and still be considered a city. Having over a thousand mages in Kirkwall is outright extreme. That's a city within a city. That's not at all how the Gallows is represented.

 

Then there's the matter of how much space there is. Kirkwall clings to the black cliffs on the coast of the Waking Sea. There really isn't a lot of room, which is why mages have been relegated to the Gallows, an island fortress out in the harbour. This really stretches the capacity of medieval fortifications. Even the enormously important Caernarfon Castle in Wales, which the English kings used to pacify the countryside, only maintained a garrison of twenty to forty fighting men during peace time, and that was because of its strategic significance. Less important castles might have a guard of only a few men. The second-largest castle in England, Caerphilly, could hold a maximum garrison of 130 men. It's difficult to calculate the total population (including kitchen staff, maids, etc.), but you can see from these examples that there are obvious restrictions to the size of Kirkwall's circle based on their quarters. If the city has a castle capable of garrisoning several hundred soldiers, it would be of far greater strategic value to actually keep soldiers there, rather than mages. Thus, the Gallows can't really be large enough to hold anything like 1,000+ mages. 

 

Taking all these matters into consideration, I hold to my original estimate of 500-600 total people in the Kirkwall circle (~200 mages). Given that there are 6 Circles in the Free Marches and only one in all of Ferelden, this does not seem to me an unreasonable number for, essentially, two circles from relatively high-populated areas. 

 

 

 

Antiva, Rivain and the Anderfels seem to have one Circle each, which makes sense since they generally seem less populated than the nations of Southern Thedas. But Tevinter alone has 7 Circles, which is more than 3 times the number of any other nation in Southern Thedas apart from the Free Marches (which isn't really a nation). Being in a Circle is also not mandatory for mages in Tevinter, it's actually seen as a privilege. And unlike in the South, being a mage in Tevinter is actively encouraged. The upper classes try breeding the best mages possible, were also said to track the lineages of every family who'd ever produced a mage, while the soporati pretty much dream of producing a mage child to become Laetans. Minrathous is also the largest city in Thedas. Basically, Tevinter alone has probably more mages than most of the other nations combined.

 

We know too little about magic in Antiva and the Anderfels to make intelligent speculation on the matter. I chose, before, to assume that the prevalence of mages in those nations was about the same as in Ferelden, as there has been no indication that Ferelden's circle differs in any notable way from other circles (aside from how it has a relatively high proportion of its membership living off-campus). Rivain is another matter entirely. Given the venerated status that mages enjoy in that society, I expect they have at least twice the number of mages as in other nations which view magic with suspicion. In all, I would expect these three nations to have somewhere between 1,200 and 1,500 mages (including apprentices). 

 

 

 

 

A lot of fringe groups seem to be rather more accepting of mages than the Chantry: the Dalish, the Avvar, the Rivaini etc. It'd make sense that they'd have a higher percentage of mages than the Andrastian population, if only because they don't try to murder children who show signs of magic (see: the superstition that says drowning young children can get rid of their magic). It's kind of hard to say how many of them there'd be however. The Grey Wardens also have mages of their own, though they mostly recruit those from the Circles. 

 

I have yet to see any mages indicated among the Avvar. That's not to say that I don't think they exist, but rather that they occupy a very inferior social status in a society that otherwise values strength and honour over power and mysticism. Avvar shamans would be few and far between. 

 

The Dalish were a very difficult issue for me to tackle. All elves seem to have a connection with magic that transcends humans, but we have seen that they are cautious about how many mages they have in a clan at any given time. The Keeper and the First are both mages, but others in the clan might have magical aptitude. Based on the circumstances they may or may not develop their magic, and may or may not be taken under the tutelage of the Keeper. Consider that Valorin was passed over for apprenticeship by Keeper Hawen, and Dalish had to leave her clan and join the Bull's Chargers so as not to attract the attention of the templars on her clan. 

 

There are 13 different clans directly encountered in all Dragon Age material, and it's hard to estimate how many more there might be, and how many elves are in each clan. We know that inspiration for the Dalish originally came from the Romani, and later developed a more Native American flare. There are 562 First Nation (as we say in Canada... calling such groups "Indians" is as racist to me as the preferred nomenclature of First Nation peoples in Canada seems to you) bands recognized by the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the United States, about half of which are in Alaska. So, and this is highly speculative, if there were some 300 Dalish tribes going around Thedas, each with the minimum sustainable population (such that the tribe wouldn't go extinct from genetic stochasticity) of about 1,400 individuals (at the VERY MINIMUM)*, that comes out, I estimate, at around 420,000 Dalish elves. If an average of 2-3 from each clan are able to use magic, that comes out at 600-900 mages, or about 1.5 - 2.1 per cent of the total populace... which is totally in keeping with our theory that elves are more magical. 

 

* Nunney, L., and K. A. Campbell. 1993. Assessing minimum viable population size: demography meets population genetics. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:234-239.

 

 

I've saved Tevinter for last because it's arguably the most difficult one to estimate. With seven circles, and the fact that these institutions are considered academies rather than glorified prisons, and the fact that Tevinter aggressively promotes eugenic pursuits to breed the perfect mage, and how they unfailingly accept fugitive mages from other countries, I would estimate that the number of mages in Tevinter is equal to the number of mages in the rest of Thedas. This was the case in my first estimate, and I see no reason to adjust it at this point. So, if we want to raise the total number of mages in the south, it will increase proportionally. 

 

All tallied up, my estimate is revised to about 6,000 to 8,000 mages, and some 9,000 to 12,000 would-be mages (either Tranquil, apprentices, or Dalish elves not taught to be mages). So, technically there could be more than 10,000, but certainly not all in one place, and certainly not unified. 

[Evamitchelle]

 

I wholeheartedly agree with this point, and I thank you for bringing it up. I would revise my estimates based on this as follows: 
 
50% of a Circle population is apprentices 
35% are bona fide Mages 
15% are Tranquil
 
I would estimate, based on this, that Ferelden's circle population includes upwards of 150 mages (still around that arbitrary 5% figure we are supposing for 7 mages to be considered "a lot"), and 400 people in total. 
 
When I speculated a figure of 100,000 for Kirkwall's population, I did base it on the Italian city-states. While a figure of 200,000 could certainly be achievable for Kirkwall after they accepted buttloads of Ferelden refugees, the number seemed exceptionally large for a starting population. I don't really have anything to cite for this, nor do I think the developers even had a concrete number in mind, but having studied medieval history extensively (I minored in it) I would estimate from Kirkwall's infrastructure and geographic parameters that the number is closer to 100,000. Again, I could be wrong.

The codex entry ‘The city of Kirkwall’ mentions that Kirkwall was home to nearly 1,000,000 slaves when it was still part of Tevinter, so over 1,000 years ago. I doubt Kirkwall’s anywhere as big now, but it still seems capable of supporting a very large population.
 

On to the number of mages, then. I would again like to emphasize that medieval settlements could be only 1,000-residents strong and still be considered a city. Having over a thousand mages in Kirkwall is outright extreme. That's a city within a city. That's not at all how the Gallows is represented.
 
Then there's the matter of how much space there is. Kirkwall clings to the black cliffs on the coast of the Waking Sea. There really isn't a lot of room, which is why mages have been relegated to the Gallows, an island fortress out in the harbour. This really stretches the capacity of medieval fortifications. Even the enormously important Caernarfon Castle in Wales, which the English kings used to pacify the countryside, only maintained a garrison of twenty to forty fighting men during peace time, and that was because of its strategic significance. Less important castles might have a guard of only a few men. The second-largest castle in England, Caerphilly, could hold a maximum garrison of 130 men. It's difficult to calculate the total population (including kitchen staff, maids, etc.), but you can see from these examples that there are obvious restrictions to the size of Kirkwall's circle based on their quarters. If the city has a castle capable of garrisoning several hundred soldiers, it would be of far greater strategic value to actually keep soldiers there, rather than mages. Thus, the Gallows can't really be large enough to hold anything like 1,000+ mages.

I hadn’t really considered the issue of building-size, which is a good point. However Thedas’buildings don’t seem to suffer the same constraints that real-life medieval ones. The Viscout’s Keep and the Kirkwall Chantry seem exceptionally large, especially considering that they were originally built over a 1,000 years ago (by the dwarves IIRC). Magic is probably the answer.
 

Taking all these matters into consideration, I hold to my original estimate of 500-600 total people in the Kirkwall circle (~200 mages). Given that there are 6 Circles in the Free Marches and only one in all of Ferelden, this does not seem to me an unreasonable number for, essentially, two circles from relatively high-populated areas.

There are actually supposed to be 2 Circles in Ferelden, the other one being called Jainen, but I think the only place where it’s ever mentioned is Dragon Age: Legends, so I’m not sure how canon it is.
 

We know too little about magic in Antiva and the Anderfels to make intelligent speculation on the matter. I chose, before, to assume that the prevalence of mages in those nations was about the same as in Ferelden, as there has been no indication that Ferelden's circle differs in any notable way from other circles (aside from how it has a relatively high proportion of its membership living off-campus). Rivain is another matter entirely. Given the venerated status that mages enjoy in that society, I expect they have at least twice the number of mages as in other nations which view magic with suspicion. In all, I would expect these three nations to have somewhere between 1,200 and 1,500 mages (including apprentices). 
 
I have yet to see any mages indicated among the Avvar. That's not to say that I don't think they exist, but rather that they occupy a very inferior social status in a society that otherwise values strength and honour over power and mysticism. Avvar shamans would be few and far between.

Have you played Jaws of Hakkon? It shines a light on Avvar culture, and reveals some very interesting things about their beliefs. It also makes it abundantly clear that mages are anything but inferior in their society. We can find out in the base game that Tyrdda Bright-Axe, the ‘Avvar-Mother’, was actually a mage, and a further war table mission in JoH says that “It is interesting to note that the Avvar were completely unsurprised by Tyrdda being a mage. While it was lost to Fereldan history, it was evidently taken as an unspoken truth among the Avvar”. That already indicates a rather more tolerant view of mages than Andrastian societies have. But once we take into account the Avvar’s religious beliefs it becomes obvious that mages would have to play an integral part in Avvar society: the Avvar believe that their gods are spirits, and unlike the Maker or the Elven gods, their gods are highly involved in their daily lives. Mages would be invaluable to help communicating with their gods (for example by letting them get possessed by spirits). What we see in Stone-Bear Hold further cements that idea. The Augur is in charge of interpreting the will of the gods, he handles arcane matters, he takes care of the Hold-Beast. Basically, mages in Avvar society are on par with the Dalish Keepers and Rivaini Seers in terms of social standing. But there doesn't seem to be that many Avvar, so it probably doesn't change the overall number all that much.

The Dalish were a very difficult issue for me to tackle. All elves seem to have a connection with magic that transcends humans, but we have seen that they are cautious about how many mages they have in a clan at any given time. The Keeper and the First are both mages, but others in the clan might have magical aptitude. Based on the circumstances they may or may not develop their magic, and may or may not be taken under the tutelage of the Keeper. Consider that Valorin was passed over for apprenticeship by Keeper Hawen, and Dalish had to leave her clan and join the Bull's Chargers so as not to attract the attention of the templars on her clan. 
 
There are 13 different clans directly encountered in all Dragon Age material, and it's hard to estimate how many more there might be, and how many elves are in each clan. We know that inspiration for the Dalish originally came from the Romani, and later developed a more Native American flare. There are 562 First Nation (as we say in Canada... calling such groups "Indians" is as racist to me as the preferred nomenclature of First Nation peoples in Canada seems to you) bands recognized by the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the United States, about half of which are in Alaska. So, and this is highly speculative, if there were some 300 Dalish tribes going around Thedas, each with the minimum sustainable population (such that the tribe wouldn't go extinct from genetic stochasticity) of about 1,400 individuals (at the VERY MINIMUM)*, that comes out, I estimate, at around 420,000 Dalish elves. If an average of 2-3 from each clan are able to use magic, that comes out at 600-900 mages, or about 1.5 - 2.1 per cent of the total populace... which is totally in keeping with our theory that elves are more magical. 
 
* Nunney, L., and K. A. Campbell. 1993. Assessing minimum viable population size: demography meets population genetics. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:234-239.

Inquisition introduced a 3-mage per clan rule, though it’s not explicitly stated that all clans follow it. In World of Thedas Vol. 2 there’s a mention to the position of Second (which I think Vivienne mentions as well), which would indicate that there’s at least 3 official mage positions in a clan. I don’t think the surplus mages wouldn’t be trained however, that seems a great way to invite trouble. Besides, we know that the Dalish like to trade their surplus mages to other clans. Merrill’s codex entry says she was the third child born with magic in her clan, meaning they went around with at least 4 mages until she was given to Sabrae at the next Arlathvhen. But an average of 3 per clan would be a reasonable estimate.

A population of over a thousand per clan seems rather huge though. The Dalish clans we’ve visited rarely had more than 30 members on-screen. Personally I’d go with more clans with smaller populations. As for your minimal sustainable population, are you taking into account the fact that the Dalish regularly trade people among each other during Arlathvhen (which is not very often – once every 10 years), and that some of them can also take in run-aways City Elves (Pol from the Denerim alienage was taken in by Sabrae, Aneirin went to the Dalish after he escaped the Circle) ?

A 600-900 estimate seems reasonable for me, though I imagine a smaller Dalish population and a higher percentage of mages.

(As an aside I think the preferred nomenclature is Native American rather than Indian, and I don’t think First Nations is considered a racist term – but I’m not American) 
 

I've saved Tevinter for last because it's arguably the most difficult one to estimate. With seven circles, and the fact that these institutions are considered academies rather than glorified prisons, and the fact that Tevinter aggressively promotes eugenic pursuits to breed the perfect mage, and how they unfailingly accept fugitive mages from other countries, I would estimate that the number of mages in Tevinter is equal to the number of mages in the rest of Thedas. This was the case in my first estimate, and I see no reason to adjust it at this point. So, if we want to raise the total number of mages in the south, it will increase proportionally.

I’m pretty much in agreement here.
 

All tallied up, my estimate is revised to about 6,000 to 8,000 mages, and some 9,000 to 12,000 would-be mages (either Tranquil, apprentices, or Dalish elves not taught to be mages). So, technically there could be more than 10,000, but certainly not all in one place, and certainly not unified.

Well I agree that 10,000 seems too much for the Mage Rebellion. But it seems on the low end for all of Thedas, then again we don't really have any concrete numbers for the current general population of Thedas: apart from that one mention of there being 10,000 elves in Val Royeaux's alienage, supposedly the largest in the world I don't remember reading any other numbers.

[berelinde]

Vivienne says that non-mages outnumber mages a hundred to one. She's talking in extremely general terms, not specifics, and she's doing so for illustrative purposes not because she has conducted a study of it, but she could have said "a thousand to one" or "ten thousand to one" just as easily. That being the case, I would expect her 1% estimate to be accurate within half an order of magnitude, so mages would comprise 0.5% to 5% of the population.

 

And why not? Minrathos is the largest city in Thedas, and it's said to have a milliion residents. If 1% of the population are mages, that's 10K, which makes sense.

 

I'd be willing to bet that the number of apostates in Thedas is larger than a lot of people estimate, and not always because they're hiding. A lot of those mages may not even realize what they are, and a lot more probably keep it hidden. If their powers are low-key, healing or non-aggressive magic only, they may go their whole lives without discovering it. If they find out when no one is looking, they might want to hide their talents intentionally. Every time you walk through Redcliffe, you hear "I don't know, Gran, I'm getting those dreams again."/"Shut it, you! You aren't a mage."

[RoseLawliet]

Ferelden (Origins)

In Origins, Duncan tells the mage warden that when the Grey Wardens sent out a call to fight the Blight, the Circle sent only seven (7) mages. That figure prompts the response "seven mages is a lot". If Ferelden had in the order of 10,000 mages, or even just 1,000, a total of seven sorcerers is a paltry commitment indeed, and certainly incongruous with the implications in the dialogue. For seven mages to be a respectable number, it must needs represent at least 5% of the Circle membership, if not more.

 

It's been a while since I played the mage origin, but are we sure that "seven mages is a lot" is actually talking about the size of the Circle? Considering how the Chantry people treat mages at Ostagar, I think "seven mages is a lot" means something more like groups of mages are rarely trusted to go out together, even with a band of templars in tow. Could just be my pro-mage bias, but what do people think?

[Primorus]

 The codex entry ‘The city of Kirkwall’ mentions that Kirkwall was home to nearly 1,000,000 slaves when it was still part of Tevinter, so over 1,000 years ago. I doubt Kirkwall’s anywhere as big now, but it still seems capable of supporting a very large population.
 
I hadn’t really considered the issue of building-size, which is a good point. However Thedas’buildings don’t seem to suffer the same constraints that real-life medieval ones. The Viscout’s Keep and the Kirkwall Chantry seem exceptionally large, especially considering that they were originally built over a 1,000 years ago (by the dwarves IIRC). Magic is probably the answer.

 

I had forgotten about the figure of a million slaves. Nonetheless, even if the population of Kirkwall was that large, I can't imagine that the Gallows is large enough to house a thousand mages. I am a fantasy writer, myself, and I have exhaustively researched pre-modern construction methods in my own endeavour to create such things as towers able to house hundreds of people. Even if I suppose that magic were involved in reinforcing the mortar such that it could withstand the buckling of wind forces, the required size of the structure is orders of magnitude larger than how the Gallows are depicted. A solitary fortress on a rocky island in a harbour simply cannot accommodate over a thousand people.

 

In fact, it wouldn't even be able to support 500, which seems to be closer to the intended number of mages living there, but at some point we simply have to suspend disbelief and give the developers the benefit of the doubt. 

 

 

Inquisition introduced a 3-mage per clan rule, though it’s not explicitly stated that all clans follow it. In World of Thedas Vol. 2 there’s a mention to the position of Second (which I think Vivienne mentions as well), which would indicate that there’s at least 3 official mage positions in a clan. I don’t think the surplus mages wouldn’t be trained however, that seems a great way to invite trouble. Besides, we know that the Dalish like to trade their surplus mages to other clans. Merrill’s codex entry says she was the third child born with magic in her clan, meaning they went around with at least 4 mages until she was given to Sabrae at the next Arlathvhen. But an average of 3 per clan would be a reasonable estimate.

A population of over a thousand per clan seems rather huge though. The Dalish clans we’ve visited rarely had more than 30 members on-screen. Personally I’d go with more clans with smaller populations. As for your minimal sustainable population, are you taking into account the fact that the Dalish regularly trade people among each other during Arlathvhen (which is not very often – once every 10 years), and that some of them can also take in run-aways City Elves (Pol from the Denerim alienage was taken in by Sabrae, Aneirin went to the Dalish after he escaped the Circle) ?

A 600-900 estimate seems reasonable for me, though I imagine a smaller Dalish population and a higher percentage of mages.

(As an aside I think the preferred nomenclature is Native American rather than Indian, and I don’t think First Nations is considered a racist term – but I’m not American) 

 

We've just been talking about how Kirkwall has thousands of people, but I fail to see more than 100 NPCs for it. Likewise, the size of a typical Dalish clan cannot be inferred from the NPCs included on-screen. 

 

However, if they regularly exchange members, as you rightfully point out, the minimum viable population to sustain a clan cannot be calculated solely on the basis of countering genetic stochasticity. However, if clans became any smaller the ratio of mages to the total population is actually reduced.

 

Consider a clan size of 400-600. This would mean that, in order for there to be at least 50,000 Dalish (a number I am, admittedly, pulling out of my ass, but which is my best estimation for the minimum number of Dalish in Thedas), there would have to be 80-120 clans. Three mages per clan yields a figure of 240-360 mages, which is less than 1% of the Dalish population.

 

If there were 200,000 Dalish, and approximately 350 clans, that would be 1,000 mages (0.5% of the population). 

 

If there were 500,000 Dalish, and approximately 825 clans, that would be 2,475 mages (0.495% of the population). 

 

You can see, now, part of the reason why I assumed the numbers I did.

 

 

Well I agree that 10,000 seems too much for the Mage Rebellion. But it seems on the low end for all of Thedas, then again we don't really have any concrete numbers for the current general population of Thedas: apart from that one mention of there being 10,000 elves in Val Royeaux's alienage, supposedly the largest in the world I don't remember reading any other numbers.

 

The absence of actual demographics really does complicate things. All the same, the number of the mage rebellion is undoubtedly a significant proportion of the mage population in southern Thedas. I would go so far as to say the majority. This means that their upper limit is bound by the logistics which we can infer. 

 

Take, for example, the decision of the free mages to hole up in Redcliffe. Redcliffe is, doubtless, one of Ferelden's largest settlements, but even an increase of its population on the order of 500 persons would strain the food supply. If the king were to divert additional resources to Redcliffe it would certainly mitigate this impact, but that can only go so far. Having more than a few thousand mages would be outright impossible. There would be famine and overcrowding. The math just doesn't add up. 

 

Hence, I return to my estimate that there are fewer than 10,000 mages in Thedas. 

[Gervaise]

Just thought I'd mention that in Masked Empire the clan that Celene and companions encounter numbers around 50 members.   When she sees how small their numbers are, Celene realises that their fears of a Dalish uprising at some point in the future are unfounded.    I seem to recall that it was mentioned in a codex somewhere (may be back in Origins) that clan numbers are deliberately kept small so that if the humans attack one clan it will not impact so badly on the overall population.    Also it is easier to hide small numbers than large ones.     In the past it was intimated that the reason elven children were passed around the clans was because they had a shortage of mages and since each clan must have a Keeper who is a mage, those with a surplus allowed them to go to those with a shortage.   

 

Of course DAI overturned this idea by suggesting that the Dalish were actually trying to get rid of their surplus because they did not feel they could control them.    An absolute absurdity, since why would you put people in charge of your clan if you thought they were too dangerous?    Plus their whole lore is based on the fact that all elves once possessed magic (turns out this was true) and thus elf mages are closer to what they once were.  Another part of their belief is that when they remember what it is to be true elves, their gods will return to them.    Clearly, based on such a belief, the ideal for a clan would be to be entirely comprised of mages.    So it is unthinkable that they would instead leave surplus mage children to die in the woods.  It is literally an offense against their gods.     If mage children are cherished, they are less likely to present a problem than in a culture (like the southern Chantry) where they are feared.    This is true of Tevinter, of Rivain and also of the Avaar, the latter of which seem perfectly able to cope with mages among their numbers without the help of Templars.    So if you allow that 2-3 mages per clan represents the average birth rate, rather than deliberate culling, then based on clan numbers of no more than 60, the mages among the Dalish represent around 5% of their population.

 

In Tevinter the number of non-mages still outnumbers the mages but the proportion of mages to non-mages is obviously likely to be much higher.    However, judging by the Parvus, Alexius and Tilani familes, the Altus at least seem to have no more than one child per family (whether this is an infertility problem or choice is unclear).   So this may be what keeps mage numbers down.   Even so there are likely to be more mages in Tevinter alone than in the rest of Thedas combined.

 

This would offset the situation in the majority of the rest of Thedas where mages generally are born from non-mage families and they are not deliberately trying to breed them.   So I would think in Southern Thedas that mages only amounting to around 1-2% of the population would be the maximum you are likely to find.   From what I have always understood, mage towers (Circles) in southern Thedas had hundreds, not thousands, of mages within their walls.

[Bleachrude]

Er, Kirkwall held 1,000,000 slaves. I will point out that this is SLAVES. I think it is safe to assume that the slaves didn't have the living area of either what the mages in the Gallows or even Lowtown had. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the living conditions weren't worse than even Darktown

[Nixou]

Er, Kirkwall held 1,000,000 slaves. I will point out that this is SLAVES. I think it is safe to assume that the slaves didn't have the living area of either what the mages in the Gallows or even Lowtown had. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the living conditions weren't worse than even Darktown

 

Didn't Darktown start to exist because this was where escapee slaves hid? If Dartown looked like an improvement, then yes, slave's quarters were probably worse

[Illegitimus]

If you factor in the numerous losses from the Mage-Templar War, The Incident in Fereldens circle tower where all but 12 mages or all the mages (depending on your choice) died. And then The events of DA2 and the Mages that died in that circles attempted Annulment. Then the numbers would be even less than that.

 

12 mages isn't the total for the entire circle.  It's just the number who happen to handy.  I mean you don't think Redcliffe only has fifty infantry, right?  Or Orzammar?  

[Primorus]

Just thought I'd mention that in Masked Empire the clan that Celene and companions encounter numbers around 50 members.   When she sees how small their numbers are, Celene realises that their fears of a Dalish uprising at some point in the future are unfounded.    I seem to recall that it was mentioned in a codex somewhere (may be back in Origins) that clan numbers are deliberately kept small so that if the humans attack one clan it will not impact so badly on the overall population.    Also it is easier to hide small numbers than large ones.     In the past it was intimated that the reason elven children were passed around the clans was because they had a shortage of mages and since each clan must have a Keeper who is a mage, those with a surplus allowed them to go to those with a shortage.  

 

I have not read The Masked Empire. I should. 

 

If clans are as small as only 50 members, it means they would have to regularly trade members in order to avoid all the negative effects of inbreeding. It also means that we can reduce the total minimum number of Dalish from an order of around a million (if each clan is trying to maintain a reasonable diversity in its genetics) to, perhaps, a quarter million or so.

 

That really messes things up, though, because, as you can see... 

 

250,000 Dalish / 50 members per clan = 5,000 clans x 2 mages per clan (minimum) = 10,000 Dalish mages 

 

If there were 10,000 Dalish mages (4% of the total Dalish population) then the templars would not simply abide them. 

 

I'm thinking that a clan of 50 has to be exceptionally small, maybe as small as they come. The largest clans would have to be closer to 300 or 400. These are the clans which can have a Keeper, a First, and a Second, as well as maybe another four or five additional members with magical potential who are not taken as apprentices but, rather, only taught to resist demons. The smaller clans would have to trade out any extras in order to keep under the radar of the templars. 

 

If there were 250,000 Dalish and an average of, say, 150 per clan, and an average of 2.1 mages across the board, that makes 3,500 mages. That's still (very) high, but far more reasonable.