1329 réponses à ce sujet

[frankf43]

Sales is what is important, not how succesful it was at launch.

1.13 million people isn't a lot. A game like DA:I needs to sell 3 to 4+ million copies to break even.

 

But the average player isn't going to have logged 100+ hours in the game. I would say a safer bet for the average player would be nearer the 50-70 hour mark and that is probably still high. Even so 50 hours would give the game 2.26 million players.

 

I can't see 3 to 4 million to break even 3 million copies @ $60 a pop is $180 million 4 million copies is $240 million if they need that kind of sales to break even they are doing something seriously wrong.

[teks]

But the average player isn't going to have logged 100+ hours in the game. I would say a safer bet for the average player would be nearer the 50-70 hour mark and that is probably still high. Even so 50 hours would give the game 2.26 million players.

 

I can't see 3 to 4 million to break even 3 million copies @ $60 a pop is $180 million 4 million copies is $240 million if they need that kind of sales to break even they are doing something seriously wrong.

exactly.

[AlanC9]

Giving EA/BioWare $60 every copy? That's generous. Retailers receive a fair share of the price tag.
 

Of course, there's no retailer for a DD via Origin.

[frankf43]

Giving EA/BioWare $60 every copy? That's generous. Retailers receive a fair share of the price tag.

 

For the record, I don't believe (or want) Inquisition will be a financial failure. Just saying it how it is.

Yeah I get that but I was on about total sales revenue. The idea that it needs to sell $240 million worth of copies before it breaks even seems extremely high. We will never know what % of the total revenue EA got or what % of that went to Bioware.

[Sylvius the Mad]

Sales is what is important, not how succesful it was at launch.

And you base this on what?

1.13 million people isn't a lot. A game like DA:I needs to sell 3 to 4+ million copies to break even.

But instead of 100 hr/purchase estimate, what if we assume 12 hr/purchase? Then we see 9 million units sold.

Is 12 hr the right estimate? Is 100 hr? We have no idea, so why are we throwing around made up numbers as if they are meaningful?

[AlanC9]

But the average player isn't going to have logged 100+ hours in the game. I would say a safer bet for the average player would be nearer the 50-70 hour mark and that is probably still high. Even so 50 hours would give the game 2.26 million players.

I think that's high too. Only 36% of players completed DAO; IIRC something like a quarter never got past the Korcari Wilds.

[Sylvius the Mad]

I think that's high too. Only 36% of players completed DAO; IIRC something like a fifth never got past the Korcari Wilds.

I'd be surprised if the average per unit sold was more than 30 hr.

[atlantico]

I think that's high too. Only 36% of players completed DAO; IIRC something like a quarter never got past the Korcari Wilds.

 

Any further assumptions you'd like to add from numbers taken out of thin air?

[CronoDragoon]

But the average player isn't going to have logged 100+ hours in the game. I would say a safer bet for the average player would be nearer the 50-70 hour mark and that is probably still high. Even so 50 hours would give the game 2.26 million players.

 

I can't see 3 to 4 million to break even 3 million copies @ $60 a pop is $180 million 4 million copies is $240 million if they need that kind of sales to break even they are doing something seriously wrong.

 

40-60 is too high I think. Here is my PSN trophy profile for Inquisition which displays the % of players who have earned a given trophy out of those who at minimum loaded the game up once:

 

1/10 of players don't even finish the prologue.

45% of players haven't closed the Breach.

Only 34% went on to do either Wicked Hearts or Here Lies.

22% have finished the game.

 

Bonus "Don't extrapolate BSN to larger fanbase" stat: Only 26% do a romance.

[frankf43]

40-60 is too high I think. Here is my PSN trophy profile for Inquisition which displays the % of players who have earned a given trophy out of those who at minimum loaded the game up once:

 

1/10 of players don't even finish the prologue.

45% of players haven't closed the Breach.

Only 34% went on to do either Wicked Hearts or Here Lies.

22% have finished the game.

 

Bonus "Don't extrapolate BSN to larger fanbase" stat: Only 26% do a romance.

Nice stat's. I was being deliberately high on my estimation to show that 50 hours would give you 2 and a quarter million players. I did state that I though my estimation was too high. 

[teks]

And you base this on what?
But instead of 100 hr/purchase estimate, what if we assume 12 hr/purchase? Then we see 9 million units sold.

Is 12 hr the right estimate? Is 100 hr? We have no idea, so why are we throwing around made up numbers as if they are meaningful?

perspective. We do have an idea of copies sold on this data. I mean 100hours is an extremely high estimate, and to see it would still mean over 1 million copies means a lot. Unless you want to think they failed, then you hate that info,

[tmp7704]

40-60 is too high I think. Here is my PSN trophy profile for Inquisition which displays the % of players who have earned a given trophy out of those who at minimum loaded the game up once:
 
1/10 of players don't even finish the prologue.
45% of players haven't closed the Breach.
Only 34% went on to do either Wicked Hearts or Here Lies.
22% have finished the game.
 
Bonus "Don't extrapolate BSN to larger fanbase" stat: Only 26% do a romance.

Of particular interest, given the earlier discussion about the stats: 65% didn't kill a single dragon in their game.

[AlanC9]

Any further assumptions you'd like to add from numbers taken out of thin air?

Don't be a fool, man. You really think I made up a figure as specific as 36%? That's straight from Fernando Melo's presentation after ME3 came out; long enough after so he had ME3 figures too. You want me to Google it for you, or should I just post the pic of Melo standing in front of the chart?

The Korcari figure is something Gaider tossed off some years ago; the context, I think, was that Bio doesn't worry too much about completion percentages because they'd go nuts if they did. I don't have time to fish it up right now, but since it fits nicely with the numbers CronoDragoon posted above I don't think that's a useful exercise anyway,

[CronoDragoon]

Also: 12% of people collected all the shards and finished the Solasan Temple. That seems like...a lot considering the nature of the quest.

[frankf43]

Of particular interest, given the earlier discussion about the stats: 65% didn't kill a single dragon in their game.

But 28% of those that did went on to kill all 10

[tmp7704]

Also: 12% of people collected all the shards and finished the Solasan Temple. That seems like...a lot considering the nature of the quest.

It's probably the same obsessive subset that upgraded their potions 30 times. The numbers match close enough

[CronoDragoon]

But 28% of those that did went on to kill all 10

 

Well the Dragon's Bane trophy is bugged so unfortunately I don't think we'll find useful info there.

[frankf43]

Also: 12% of people collected all the shards and finished the Solasan Temple. That seems like...a lot considering the nature of the quest.

 

I love the game but soon gave up on the shards. I don't care what was in that temple it was not worth collecting every shard.

[AlanC9]

Only 34% went on to do either Wicked Hearts or Here Lies.
22% have finished the game.
 
Bonus "Don't extrapolate BSN to larger fanbase" stat: Only 26% do a romance.

I'm not sure which of these surprises me more. So 12% got as far as Wicked Hearts and then quit? Or are a lot of them still plugging away at the game, maybe?

[frankf43]

Well the Dragon's Bane trophy is bugged so unfortunately I don't think we'll find useful info there.

I didn't know that. Thanks for the info.

[tmp7704]

I'm not sure which of these surprises me more. So 12% got as far as Wicked Hearts and then quit? Or are a lot of them still plugging away at the game, maybe?

From the numbers it seems like...

10% gave up in the prologue
45% (total) gave up before the Skyhold
65% didn't make it through Abyss/Wicked
75% quit before Pride
80% stopped before the final fight

it seems pretty reasonable, and in line with how the games usually go.

[Sylvius the Mad]

I love the game but soon gave up on the shards. I don't care what was in that temple it was not worth collecting every shard.

I like the shards. They provide a quick and easy reason to explore new areas and stumble across other content.