You just drew this conclusion based on me asking a question. I made no claims.
You're the one making positive claims. You're the one who needs evidence. I was asking for that evidence, and your response was an ad hominem.
Well, you apparently disagreed with me.
To answer your question: It is common knowledge that overall sales over a games' "lifetime" are more important than day one resp. launch sales.
On what do you base your "educated" guess?
Most people don't spend anywhere near that much time playing games. Even 40 hours seems high. 30 maybe. Are you considering unplayed games? I have lots of games I've never played, or only played briefly (less than an hour). Not because I dislike them, but because I just haven't played them.
Aha, and on what do you base
your educated guess?
Anyway, look here.
Average playtime according to HowLongToBeat is is 84 hours.
113 * 10 ^ 6 h / 84 h = 1.5 * 10 ^ 6
"Oh noes, EA only sold 1.5 million copies of teh game. Teh world come crashing downs arounds me, bestest RPGs eva no sell good."
Sarcasm aside, I personally think 84 hours is too high for a game with 150+ hours of filler content, my personal educated guess is that the average playtime is somewhere between 40 to 60 hours, but you wanted some evidence and there you have it. Evidence.