25 réponses à ce sujet

[JRandall0308]

see post #21 for updated info

[Saboteur-6]

Nice work! Hopefully there's someone else collecting data so you can compare.

[Storm_Changer]

This is interesting! Nice job.

[TheThirdRace]

Well, I didn't track as much information as you did but I've also compiled almost all the chests I bought.

 

For 174 Large Chests, I've got 174 Rares and 36 Uniques.

 

On a per chest basis, I can say I get a Rare (100%) for every chest and a Unique for every 5 chests (20%)

 

On a per slot basis (at 5 slots per large chest), I can say I get a Rare 20% of the time and a Unique 4%.

 

These drop rates seems pretty much in-line with ME3, except without any sense of progression but that's another story...

[Kres]

Not sure if I'm just unlucky or if drop rates will get better with higher level chars or more time in game.

 

Having said that...i've only collected 38661 gold up to this point equating to 32.21 large chests

 

To this point i've gotten 0 uniques (0% drop rate <--- joke) and the highest level rares I have found are level 15 (got a dagger, bow and a two hand).

 

Got a couple of friends who have found a few uniques so im not sure if im just really unlucky.

 

Kres

[moyes_1314]

Opened 621 chests. 31 uniques - 9 weapons, 2 above level 20. 6 accessories. 16 superb runes.

[JRandall0308]

If you're just counting up your Rares and Uniques and dividing by the number of chest's you've purchased, be careful. Your count can be thrown off in two ways.

 

One: it's possible to get Rares from the treasure rooms while playing a match. That can inflate your Rare count.

(I've never seen a Unique in a treasure room, but it might be possible.)

 

Two: you've probably Salvaged some Rares, maybe even some Uniques. That can deflate those counts.

 

The only way to be sure of the drop rate from store purchased chests is to keep track of the contents of every chest you buy.

[Chi_Mangetsu]

I can confirm that you can get Unique drops from treasure rooms. You might think you're hallucinating, but it can happen. Now keeping that and not losing it due to the key glitch...

[moyes_1314]

The only way to be sure of the drop rate from store purchased chests is to keep track of the contents of every chest you buy.

I've kept track of uniques, not rares though. And i'm yet to get a unique from a "treasure chest"!

[MaxCrushmore]

I`ll start tracking my bulk purchases also

 

Since I`m off work between Christmas and New Years, I should have a couple large purchases to report on in a week

 

Edit; I`m also going to pay attention to the drop rate for items above level 20, whether they be white or not

[JRandall0308]

Going forward my OCD compels me to track the following -- from the spreadsheet I'm using:

 

 

• Date = date the chest was purchased. Probably irrelevant, but might be used to track drop rates over time. (I personally will never accumulate enough chests to make this significant, but a bunch of people collectively might.)
• Chest Type = Small, Medium, Large. I'm keeping Commendation chests on a separate list just in case they have different drop rates.
• Chest Number = index number for each chest. For sorting and stuff.
• Item Slot = 1,2,3 for Medium chests and 1,2,3,4,5 for Large chests. I seriously doubt there is a per-slot drop rate as there was in ME3MP, but you never know.
• Item Rarity = Common, Rare, Unique.
• Item Type = in a broad sense: weapon, accessory, rune, armor schematic, armor upgrade. I'm probably going to re-do this to track the specific item type here (sword, mace, axe, staff, bow... belt, amulet... etc.) and then use a lookup table to derive the broader categories.
• Item Level = item level. It might be interesting to see what the drop rate is for, say, level 23 items.

[Torkelight]

Maybe someone can do some calculations out of this video?

Just skip the salvaging part in the middle I guess...

I think someone else posted a video here where he spent a 100k, but cant remember and dont have the motivation to go look for it.


 

[JRandall0308]

see post #21 for updated info

 

Obsessive tracking continues. In addition to my own chests I've also added some from the YouTube videos of KackisHD (10), Michael Wong (100), and Driblus (10 - he has more but goes through them so fast I have to review frame-by-frame which is tedious).

 

Total of 160 Large Chests or 800 Slots. This is still a small sample and because only a few people's data are included, the danger of pseudorandom number generator weirdness is high. Therefor, what follows is for entertainment purposes only.

 

Rarity per Slot

• Common 77%
• Rare 18.5%
• Unique 4.5%   <-- This has been fluctuating a lot because of the small sample. I think somewhere around 3%-5% is likely to be the real number.

 

Item Levels

• Just over one-quarter (25.6%) of all items are level 3 or below.
• Just under one-half (49.7%) of all items are level 6 or below.
• About three-quarters (73.9%) of all items are level 13 or below.
• Only 4% of items are level 21, 22, or 23.

 

Item Types

• Almost three-quarters (74%) of all items are weapons. Of those:
  • Bows 24%
  • Daggers 15%
  • One-Handed 19%
  • Staves 24%
  • Two-Handed 18%
  • (At least based on this data, it's not your imagination that you get more Bows and Staves than anything else.)
• Another 10.5% of all items are armor upgrades.
• And 8% are runes.
• If you want an accessory (amulet, belt, ring), good luck! Only 4% of all items.

[TormDK]

I love you math people, please continue!

[JRandall0308]

see post #21 for updated info

 

Up to 284 Large chests or 1,420 slots. Unique drop rate holding steady at 4.5% per slot.

 

Assuming that 4.5% is relatively correct, then...

• it requires15 slots (3 Large chests) to give you just under a 50% expectation of getting at least one Unique
• 30 slots (6 Large chests) for just under 75%
• 50 slots (10 Large chests) for 90%
• 65 slots (13 Large chests) for 95%
• 100 slots (20 Large chests) for exactly 99%

Of course RNG is always RNG and you could a thousand or a million slots with no Uniques. Or you could get 10 Uniques in a row. Yay, RNG!

[skivviss]

I have been hoarding gold for a while now, just crossed the 350k mark this last weekend.

 

Still waiting for an upgraded/different type of chest to appear in the store before I go on a buy/salvage frenzy. 

 

Would like to contribute the results to this project when that happens.... do you have a template XLS or such to make ingesting to your data set easier?  [I see the above mention of type of data tracked in a spreadsheet, but figured I would ask for the template to make things easier.]

[JRandall0308]

see post #21 for updated info

[Torkelight]

 

...and Driblus (10 - he has more but goes through them so fast I have to review frame-by-frame which is tedious).

 

Soz

[xROLLxTIDEx]

I recorded myself opening 50 chests over this past weekend.   If you want me to, I'll load it up to youtube and you can use it for your calculations.  Just let me know.

[JRandall0308]

I recorded myself opening 50 chests over this past weekend.

 

Please do. The more data, the better.

[JRandall0308]

This is the final update I will make to this thread. I am making my data publicly available here:

https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing

 

Below I present some descriptive (NOT predictive) information. This means I took the data and did some math. You should not use this information to make predictions and draw conclusions about drop rates.

 

Boring Caveats And Such

Spoiler

This is still a small sample. It's also based on chests bought by only 7 different people: me plus the videos of 6 people on YouTube.

 

This data only describes chests bought with Gold, not Platinum.

 

I will probably continue to track my own chests for my own obsessive compulsive reasons. I will probably not continue to peruse YouTube videos, because that is extremely tedious.

 

To answer the question, Why isn't this in a database? Because Google Drive doesn't offer one and I am too cheap and lazy to use anything else.

 

To answer the question, Why don't you do statistical analysis? Because I know little about statistics. Have at it.

 

To answer the question, Why didn't you track (number of promotions / amount of gold before you started buying / moon phase)? Because I didn't and and I'm not going to start.

 

Descriptive Data

Spoiler

Sample Size

The data sample is 440 Large Chests, or 2200 Slots.

 

There were 24 Slots that were not usable because I could not see all five items received on various YouTube videos. I don't know if these apparently empty slots are because of an actual game glitch (people cheated out of an item) or an artifact of the video upload process (missing frames or something).

 

Drop Rates

93 Chests contains at least one Unique, for a 21.1% Unique drop rate per Chest.

 

There were 100 Uniques total in the 2200 Slots, for a 4.5% Unique drop rate per Slot. (Rares 19.0%, Commons 75.3%, empty 1.1%)

 

Item Levels

Just under half (49.0%) of all items were level 6 or lower.

 

Just under three-quarters (74.4%) of all items were level 13 or lower.

 

Only 3.6% of items were levels 21-22-23.

 

Items were not evenly distributed across the levels. See the raw data if you want to peruse this.

 

Item Types

76.6% of all items were weapons (counting shields as weapons).

 

10.8% of all items were armor upgrades.

 

6.9% were runes.

 

4.1% were accessories.

 

1.2% were character armors.

 

Unique Levels and Types

Of the 100 Uniques in the sample, 30 were Runes, 20 Accessories, and 50 Weapons.

 

Including Runes, almost half (49) of the Uniques were level 11 or below. However a whopping 29 were level 20 or above (mostly because of all the Unique accessories that are level 20).

 

Final Thoughts

People have various theories about whether Unique drop rates, and/or the level of your items, is related to your Prestige level / number of times you've promoted / which character you use when you buy chests / whatever. I think these are extremely unlikely. Occam's Razor suggests that 'random store is random' is the only explanation we need.

[UnearthlyCheese]

Total noob question, but what's RNG? I've seen it all over the forums in regards to drop rates, but can't figure out the exact definition lol.

[TheThirdRace]

Random Number Generator (RNG).

 

Like a roll of dice, your chances are random... Technically, it's not "truly" random, but for this type of task it's sufficient.

[Eldial3los]

Random number generator is theoretical signification.

 

In a RPG or mmo its the random chance of getting something

[quebra]

Somebody told me that chests drop better quality goods when purchased from a PERILOUS lobby.  Is there any fact in this?

 

I did it a few times and got more blues and accessories on the average... annecdotal of course.