To people saying that Celene doesn't care about miltary matters, remember this:
Celene was planning on marrying Cailan to get Ferelden. Considering that Gaider confirmed that if Cailan survived the blight, he would have divorced Anora and married Celene, that would have meant that Celene would have gotten Ferelden all without needing to use an army. Plus, she wanted to use Ferelden for its resources to battle Nevarra and Tevinter so she isn't dumb about ignoring them. Also, in MOTA, Celene would have gotten the names of every Qunari agent in Orlais had Hawke not interfered. In other words, had nothing gone wrong, Celene would have gotten Ferelden and the names of every qunari agent in Orlais all without needing an army. Can Gaspard match that?
Celene simply gave up on her plans for Ferelden because "Oh Cailans already Married"
Salit was the one who defected and reached out to Orlais, who was on the throne was irrelevent
Celene was the one who completely ignored everything going on in Kirkwall despite her influence over the chantry and white chantry thedas, We hear about how "All eyes are on Kirkwall now" But she simply watched and did nothing. These don't sound like the actions of a genius to me, quite the opposite in fact
I'm not a political expert about the DA universe but I can't see the Fereldan nobles sitting there and not raising arms with an Orlesian queen, especialy with Loghain alive and Anora, who is respected by commoner and noble both, pulling in favors and working her political magic. As for MoTA, while I don't know the specifics, I don't think we can use thwarted plans as a plus. Would have, could have, should have are irrelevant.
I'm neutral on who rules Orlais. I don't think either Celene or Gaspard is better or worse than the other but as a staunch Ferelden I'd rather put the worst one on the throne which would be...Briala?
Most of the nobles didn't unite behind Vanedrin in the last invasion
They didn't bother supporting his son Brandel in any large numbers
They didn't help Moira in any great numbers, Redcliffe was her biggest win.
It was only after Maric & Loghain's successes, and the incompetent tyrannical rulership of King Meghren who treated the nobles like absolute **** and resorted to the Chevaliers for everything that the rebellion started to get any traction.
Anora could possibly rally the nobility far more sucessfully than her predecessors but even so, Ferelden is still incredibly weakened by the 5th blight so they odds start out stacked against them.
I'd personally like to hear that Ferelden is doing something about its naval power, since the 1st invasion came by land and failed. It was only when the Orlesians came by sea and took Amaranthine that Ferelden fell.