Not until they actually do so. We don't need them committing suicide-by-assassin to scare other mages.
I'm willing to concede that the Circles might backslide. I don't want them to, but they might. The thing is that I'd prefer that to the mages completely shaking off the Chantry's previous restrictions and allowing mages who should be safely Tranquilized to live as though they were normal people, and would mildly prefer it to blood mages sneaking their fingers into authority figures. (And if I can't be sure that will happen, since the mages have an interest in there not being abominations running around all over hell, neither can you be sure the Circles will backslide. The Chantry has an interest in mages only feeling minimally oppressed.)
I'm concerned by the idea of mages choosing their own curriculum without Chantry oversight: not to pretend that this oversight doesn't come with its own problems, but without it they might make it fairly easy to learn things that I think should at least be strictly controlled. Though I'm willing to concede this fear has little enough to base it on that Trespasser might not support it and that subsequent works (which have the advantage of taking place more than two years after Leiliana does what she does) might prove I was just being paranoid.
That's interesting. But if the Libertarains gained enough support to kick off a revolution it would be hard to stop then, and I can't imagine templars and Chantry as a collective not wanting to take some kind of action sooner rather than later and make things worse like they did in the games and novels.
Personally, I don't see how reform isn't blown of the water. If the circles decide they need to research blood magic, for example, and the Chantry finds something objectionable about it, which they easily could considering they Chantry's stance on blood magic, again I think one of three things happens -- they don't get to do it, they can do only some of what they wanted or they're so limited on what they can do it doesn't yield much satisfaction, or they can do what they want but other pressures eventually get it shut down.
I think by your own admission the Chantry and templars serve in part to keep the Circle from doing things they consider inappropriate. When that comes up against the will of the circles something has to give and we have the same problems as before. I think the circles will be okay on their own so long as they take into account the opinions and safety of the communities their towers reside in. So long as they can work things out there and larger issues through the College of Enchanters, I think they just don't need the Chantry. The Inquisition can take up some of the role the Chantry used to play and Leliana can lend her support against countries that might try to take advantage of or abuse the new college.
But nice chat, and maybe Trespasser will wrap it up.