EDIT: Also spoilers from ME1 as well
Hey all, I have been playing through Mass Effect 3 again now that my PC is working again, and it got me thinking. I will preface this topic with this: I know my theory is wrong. BioWare made it pretty clear-cut that the Illusive Man was indoctrinated, at least by the end of ME3. He is also fanatical, and his fanaticism along with the indoctrination was why he fought against the Alliance. So I will proceed with the understanding that my theory is wrong, but it is just something I was thinking about as I am playing through ME3 again.
WHAT IF...the Illusive Man was loyal to the Alliance the whole time? Keep in mind from ME1, Cerberus started as an Alliance black-ops group. No different from current special-ops and deniable-ops groups that exist within modern military and intelligence organizations. Cerberus, at least from my recollection from ME1, was meant to be a black ops group that could act and achieve Alliance objectives in ways the Alliance could not officially sanction, much like the Corsairs. It would seem the Illusive Man was there from the start, maybe even the architect of Cerberus while it was still part of the Alliance. This theory hypothesizes that TIM was loyal to the Alliance the whole time, and he used Cerberus to manipulate events that would turn out in the Alliance's favor, acting as an ultimate, independent black ops extension of Alliance interests.
Granted, TIM is still fanatical, and he had his own objectives he pursued. The bizarre and radical experiments Cerberus conducted in ME1 is proof of this. But think about it...almost everything Cerberus did had a direct and positive impact on the Alliance in some way. (ignoring the fact that they murdered a top Alliance official in ME1). Sure, the rank-and-file of Cerberus are told what they need to hear and are probably fanatical, but TIM uses this to make Cerberus into faux-enemy.
Lets break it down:
1. Cerberus resurrects Shepard. If the Alliance had the means and know-how to do so, they would also want to see Shepard alive again for obvious reasons.
2. Investigating and stopping the Collector attacks. The Alliance was mired in bureaucracy, preventing them from taking official action in the Terminus Systems. Although the human Terminus colonies were not officially part of the Alliance, safeguarding them and human life on those colonies is still in the best interest of the Alliance. This is supported by their sending Ash/Kaiden to unofficially/covertly assist in the defense of Horizon and investigate the colony disappearances.
3. Rebuilding the Normandy, and ALLOWING Shepard to "steal" it. TIM is a very intelligent man. He is known for being VERY good at reading people and their intentions. He's the ultimate spy, one that rivals the Shadow Broker and his network. Sure, he probably hoped that he could convince Shepard to stay with Cerberus, but he also knew that one way or another, Shepard and the Normandy would return to the Alliance. He would have known this from the start. He would have known that neither Miranda nor Jacob would have been able to stop Shepard, he probably would have known they would betray Cerberus in the end, and yet he gave Shepard and crew free reign with the Normandy anyway.
4. Attacking the Martian Archives. He knew the Alliance was struggling to find a solution to the Reaper threat, and before his attack the Alliance only speculated that there might be something useful. Liara and Hackett had a good idea, but were also grasping for straws. Shepard also asks the question "we knew about the archives all this time, why wait until now to look for weapons against the Reapers?" Exactly why TIM attacks. TIM and the Cerberus attack validated their speculation. He not only singled out the relevant files on the Crucible, but ensured there was only one copy so that once the Reapers re-took Mars, if they searched the archives they would not find the data on the Crucible.
5. Attacking the Citadel. Not only did this shock the galaxy into action (and finally realizing how serious and dire the situation with the Reapers is), but it also reinvigorated other races' trust in the Alliance, and the Asari and Salarian governments (formerly hold outs) openly gave support to the Alliance fleets and Crucible project afterwards. It was the unifying act that brought the remaining major races into the fold of the Alliance's coalition.
6. Stealing the Catalyst data on Thessia & the events on Horizon. TIM knew the organization he built was serving one overt purpose: to attack the Alliance which helped the Reapers, and one covert purpose: to manipulate events in the Alliance's favor (according to my theory). He knew Cerberus had fulfilled its role and needed to die for the Alliance to win the war. By stealing the data on the Catalyst, he knew Shepard HAD to come after it. It was their only hope. And not only did Kai Lang leave a trail for Shepard to follow, but he brought Shepard to the ONE place where Cerberus could be destroyed for good.
7. Alerting the Reapers/moving the Citadel to Earth. TIM had prevented the Reapers from finding out about the Crucible before, which would have given them time to prepare. By alerting them, they still had little/no time to prepare against the Crucuble, except to relocate the Citadel. Earth had become the Reapers' rally point, their staging area for attacking the rest of the galaxy. TIM knew this was the end-game. Either Shepard failed, in which case the Earth and Alliance were already doomed, or they would succeed. If they succeeded, Earth would be the first to be liberated from the Reapers if the Citadel and the final battle occurred at Earth. He ensured that it was Earth and Alliance space that was the first to be saved from Reaper forces.
Again, I know this theory is false. But it is interesting to think about, given that almost everything Cerberus did had a positive effect, whether direct or indirect, on Alliance goals and interests. It would be interesting to think that he led Cerberus, a fanatical terrorist organization that appeared to be full of madmen and evil, but that TIM was steering them in that direction on purpose, to be a bogeyman for the galaxy so he could help achieve Alliance objectives with no one being the wiser about it all. While he always spouted Cerberus propaganda and human supremacist beliefs, he did so knowing he had to make himself an enemy for his plan to work.





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