Since loading the DLC, I have not been able to craft a single masterwork item while using a "increase chance to craft masterwork" item in the critical crafting slot. I've gone so far as to craft items with the exact same material as may as five consecutive times, each time with a dragon tooth, and none of the attempts succeeded in creating a masterwork item.
Crafting masterwork items in DA:I always seemed a bit contrived, but it is now completely unusable. Anyone else having this issue?
This is the third time (at least) I've seen this thread, and in the previous times, the people who made the thread had no idea how probability worked. I'm not going to assume the worst just yet, but that's why it isn't working. Probability. The dragon's tooth is a 40% chance (unless they changed the %) to be a masterwork craft. That 40% never changes.
o Ventus time to face reality, 5 attempts seems high enough unless foofaa is simply using a save and then you are dead on no change is expected. I never had more than 3, but it usually worked. That said, the crafting system has many problems and a great deal of interrelation issues throughout the game. No doubt some "cross pollination" could have caused an issue. I suggest a clean game to be sure, but you could try a few early saves before you installed the DLC as you gradually back out.
o Ventus time to face reality, 5 attempts seems high enough unless foofaa is simply using a save and then you are dead on no change is expected.
"Face reality"? What reality? That someone is unlucky with masterwork crafting? If the dragon's tooth grants a 40% chance to masterwork, then it's a 40% chance. You can craft with dragon's teeth as many times as you want, but that 40% chance never changes. You aren't 5 times as likely to get a masterwork craft if you use 5 teeth, that isn't how probability works. RNG is RNG.
Masterwork crafting was terrible in the game to begin with.
If you can choose between extra guard per strike, or a 60% chance that your craftable is exactly what you've already put into it, the choice is easily made. It would've been a much better and worthwhile choice to just have Masterworks be a 10%/15%/20% increase without the chance of wasting all your resources. Or heck, just forgo them and give more of the awesome guard on hit bonuses.
Masterwork crafting was terrible in the game to begin with.
If you can choose between extra guard per strike, or a 60% chance that your craftable is exactly what you've already put into it, the choice is easily made. It would've been a much better and worthwhile choice to just have Masterworks be a 10%/15%/20% increase without the chance of wasting all your resources. Or heck, just forgo them and give more of the awesome guard on hit bonuses.
Agreed. Trusting the RNG to boost stats is always a bad bet. Instead, these things should have a guaranteed stat boost, like +5%, +10%, etc. based on Tier.
Right now, it's better to take the Guard on Hit, Heal on Hit, or "10% Chance of (Insert Ability Here) on Hit" instead.
Speaking of guard-on-hit, what determines the amount of guard generated per hit with that masterwork?
This is the third time (at least) I've seen this thread, and in the previous times, the people who made the thread had no idea how probability worked. I'm not going to assume the worst just yet, but that's why it isn't working. Probability. The dragon's tooth is a 40% chance (unless they changed the %) to be a masterwork craft. That 40% never changes.
I'll just wager your not a lot of fun to have along when people are buying lottery tickets... lol
Speaking of guard-on-hit, what determines the amount of guard generated per hit with that masterwork?
If I understand the question correctly it's the fade-touched material you use in the masterwork slot that determines how much guard it generates. I think fade touched obsidian gives you something like 3% guard on hit, and I think fade touched silverite is something like 5% - just going from memory there so don't quote me, but honestly I think that's a much better use for the masterwork slot than a 40% chance of a 10% bonus to the stats. Could just be me of course. 
Guest_Stormheart83_*
I disagree, it's a pretty forgiving system compared to something like D&D where you can spend tens of thousands in gold and other resources only to botch the last stage and kiss it all goodbye.Agreed. Trusting the RNG to boost stats is always a bad bet. Instead, these things should have a guaranteed stat boost, like +5%, +10%, etc. based on Tier.
Right now, it's better to take the Guard on Hit, Heal on Hit, or "10% Chance of (Insert Ability Here) on Hit" instead.
"Face reality"? What reality? That someone is unlucky with masterwork crafting? If the dragon's tooth grants a 40% chance to masterwork, then it's a 40% chance. You can craft with dragon's teeth as many times as you want, but that 40% chance never changes. You aren't 5 times as likely to get a masterwork craft if you use 5 teeth, that isn't how probability works. RNG is RNG.
The 40% chance just indicates the probability that it is a dragon's tooth that provides a masterwork and this is set from the moment that you pick it up. It's not the chance of having a masterwork when you use it. If it provides a masterwork it works immediately, if it doesn't provide a masterwork you can throw it away and try the next one.
This thing also applies to other "potentially masterwork" crafting components.But if you have, let's say, 10 dragon teeth it's impossible that you won't have at least 2-3 working ones...
"Face reality"? What reality? That someone is unlucky with masterwork crafting? If the dragon's tooth grants a 40% chance to masterwork, then it's a 40% chance. You can craft with dragon's teeth as many times as you want, but that 40% chance never changes. You aren't 5 times as likely to get a masterwork craft if you use 5 teeth, that isn't how probability works. RNG is RNG.
Unfortunately that is not how probability works (unless of course I am oblivious to something, in which case please do let me know). It does get more unlikely to receive no master work the more times you do it. Here's the maths to illustrate that.
Assuming independence:
(5C0)(0.6)^5=0.07776 which is 7%.
That is given the chance of success is 0.4 (40%) the chance that after 5 times you receive no master work is 7%. Thus the chance to receive at least one master work with 5 tries is 93%. Which means you are about 2 times as likely to get a master work. Granted it isn't 5 times nonetheless it is still higher.
That is given the chance of success is 0.4 (40%) the chance that after 5 times you receive no master work is 7%. Thus the chance to receive at least one master work with 5 tries is 93%. Which means you are about 2 times as likely to get a master work. Granted it isn't 5 times nonetheless it is still higher.
It does get more unlikely to receive no master work the more times you do it.
Thanks for posting this, I was just about to type it out as well. This is correct.
This statement can be easily misunderstood, however, and that is where o Ventus has a point. It suggests that chance is time/iteration-dependent, and it is not. The chance to receive a masterwork item after n tries is still 40%, completely regardless of what happened before. The total probability of such an event happening (n tries, 0 masterwork successes) does indeed decrease non-linearly, however.
Yay for stochastics.
I personally hate RNG in crafting / loot design. Make stuff more difficult to get, but then actually award something instead of artificially adding yet another lottery on top of a lottery.
"Yo dude I heard u like lotteries so I gave u a lottery in ur lottery so u can have more lottery in ur lotteries. Yo."
I really do not want to have to make use of stochastics to get ANY item in a VG - PERIOD!
I mean seriously ... where is the fun in that? Especially if it is a real chore to get anything !?!
I hated the system implemented in the ME3MP for the loot-progression as well ... 
It took out all the fun and was nothing but a mind-numbing chore the whole time!
Why can't we get a "normal" AAA title these days that does not make me wanna shoot myself ???
...
So ... dear VG-industry entrepreneurs ...
Thanks for posting this, I was just about to type it out as well. This is correct.
This statement can be easily misunderstood, however, and that is where o Ventus has a point. It suggests that chance is time/iteration-dependent, and it is not. The chance to receive a masterwork item after n tries is still 40%, completely regardless of what happened before. The total probability of such an event happening (n tries, 0 masterwork successes) does indeed decrease non-linearly, however.
Yay for stochastics.
I personally hate RNG in crafting / loot design. Make stuff more difficult to get, but then actually award something instead of artificially adding yet another lottery on top of a lottery.
"Yo dude I heard u like lotteries so I gave u a lottery in ur lottery so u can have more lottery in ur lotteries. Yo."
Right you are, my mistake I should've clarified.
As for RNG I would've also liked to be rewarded for progression. Perhaps the more items you craft in a particular subset, say long swords, the greater bonus they receive until all made are master work long swords. Or maybe you can pay large sums of gold to have your blacksmith train somewhere and come back better able to smith. I don't know really anything just not this praying to RNJesus nonsense.
I'll just wager your not a lot of fun to have along when people are buying lottery tickets... lol
People who buy lottery tickets have severe issues to work out.
People who buy lottery tickets have severe issues to work out.
Yup, it's called poverty.
Plenty of people who aren't in poverty play the lottery. What I was getting at is that people who play the lottery are dumb. There's a reason the lottery is called "a tax on stupid people".
If you're way of getting out of poverty is to play the lottery, then maybe you should sit back and examine what led to your poverty. Your odds of winning the average Powerball lotto are 1 in 175 million. And even if you DO win the lottery, it's paid to you in monthly increments (typically over a period of several years for the big jackpots), and is taxed as income (in most states, anyway, I can't say for other countries). If you're really poor and you end up winning the lottery, good luck paying the tax on the money you won. If you win a $300 million jackpot, you're only going to ever see around half of it.
Plenty of people who aren't in poverty play the lottery. What I was getting at is that people who play the lottery are dumb. There's a reason the lottery is called "a tax on stupid people".
If you're way of getting out of poverty is to play the lottery, then maybe you should sit back and examine what led to your poverty. Your odds of winning the average Powerball lotto are 1 in 175 million. And even if you DO win the lottery, it's paid to you in monthly increments (typically over a period of several years for the big jackpots), and is taxed as income (in most states, anyway, I can't say for other countries). If you're really poor and you end up winning the lottery, good luck paying the tax on the money you won. If you win a $300 million jackpot, you're only going to ever see around half of it.
I know, it was a joke, albeit a poor one. It's just a way for people to feel like something amazing can happen in their lives, I don't think many people actually take it seriously.
Wrong! People take the lottery very seriously. I know people who play everyday dropping anywhere between 30-100 dollars a day on scratch-off, Pick 3 or 4, Little Lotto, Lotto and Powerball.
These same people go to the casinos also. Before the lottery people where playing the Numbers game. Casinos and lotteries thrive on separating people from their money. And i do not mean just the disposable income. People bet everything from rent money to children's trust funds.
If the percentage chance of getting a mastercraft item is 40% then it will always be 40% for each individual item. That is not to say that a hot streak cannot occur. in one instance I was able to create 3 masterwork items in a row. That still does not change the percentage chance for each item. The RNG gods were simply favorable.
The same with rolling dice. The chance of rolling a 12 or 2 is 1 in 36. That does not mean that 12 cannot roll three or more times in succession. It is simply unlikely.
Which is why people talk about good or bad luck or being hot or cold. It depends on how favorable or unfavorable the RNG gods choose to be.
Getting an item that triggers a masterwork is determined when you pick up the item, not when you use it. On small scales, improbable events are not as unlikely as people think they are (e.g. multiple heads in a row in small instance coin tosses). Also, people reason backwards from probability too much. As an inferential method (esp. as hypothesis testing) it's very useful. But that doesn't necessarily mean that's not the explanation.
People who buy lottery tickets have severe issues to work out.
Personally I think we should tax people who can't do math. Leave us poor smokers alone for a change.. lol
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