My problem with your central theory, that Alexius couldn't have enough forces to make a difference, is that, when you are tossed into the future, you are explicitly told that he did. He not only had enough forces to make his argument convincing, he had enough to hold Redcliffe against the Inquisition, the Templars, and the Ferelden Army. So whatever he brought, however they got there, it was enough to make good on his promise.
There are several reasons stealing a march on the Inquisition makes sense. It deprives the Inquisition of the magical might to close the Breach (which Alexius needs open for his time magic), it gets him in a position to take over the greatest defensive fortification in Ferelden (which he does), it augments his forces with additional mages (while depriving his opponents of the same), and, perhaps most importantly, Corypheus told him to.
Now, while I absolutely agree that moving large concentrations of foreign troops around the hostile countryside is more than a little handwaved here, it isn't as though it is unique to this situation. DA:I basically exists on the premise that no one notices armies of Venatori and Red Templars moving around and taking over whole provinces and attacking holy sites while manipulating nobility and whatever. Everyone in DA:I that isn't part of the Inquisition is blind, stupid, crazy, or all of the above.
Ok, keep in mind he doesn't need that much of a force to hold Redcliffe, it's a very defensible position. Cullen makes mention of how defensible it is at the start of the mage quest. A small force of Venatori with support from the rebel mages and the advantage of surprise could take it,and then hold it. Especially if Cory and company use their influence to keep the templars from helping the Fereldon army in any significant way to retake it. All they have to do is hold out until Cory raises his demon army and it's game over.
However Fiona and her rebels don't know that this is the plan, and wouldn't sign on with it if they did, so the question becomes what could Alexius offer them? I can buy that he managed to bring a force sufficient to take Redcliffe by surprise - but the notion that he could bring enough of a force to convince the rebel mages that he could truly offer them safe passage back to Travintor is another matter entirely.
Without safe passage, the citizenship, etc - all becomes worthless to the rebels. So really without some other form of coercion they don't have a good reason to sign on with Alexius in the first place. The rebels can't know about the demon army or Cory's involvement, so for them the logical outcome of taking Redcliffe would be an alliance between the Templars and the Fereldon Army, and their eventual destruction.
I guess I'm curious as to why so many seem so vehement against the notion that some form of magical coercion might be invovled. I do find that rather curious, because honestly it is the simplest and most direct way of providing a plausible fix to the missing story elements.
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