Unfortunately this argument is really just "Well, they might not screw up as badly this time".
Which my worry is them screwing up just as badly, as there was far more wrong with the whole execution than just the timing of trying it on an already established modding community.
At this point I think the only thing that would cause me to not worry would be Bethesda actually detailing a new paid mod system and not screwing it up. I'm not going to be put off the system forever just because of one mess up, but it'll always be a concern.
But what did they screw up, exactly?
• Making mods paid that used non-paid mods as part of infrastructure without legal sign off
• Forcing Patreon/donate modders to either become paid or free
• Not having a way to monitor copycat paid mods from legit free ones
A lot of that is mitigated by starting with a clean slate. There are no mods that would be dependent on other mods, there are no modders set up for Donate status, there are no copycats of non-existent mods... if Bethesda can get in front of a lot of these items with a clean slate, I don't see any of the issues that come up with the Skyrim fiasco coming into play with FO4.
Not saying it will be rainbows and sunshine, but it HAS to be better than what they did a few months ago just by sheer logistics being cleaner from the start. Bethesda tried to build a boat in the middle of the ocean with the Skyrim plan. With FO4, they can build it on the dock and then send it out to sea, properly.