Because of changing circumstances and market conditions.
The Bioware brand has been building momentum for years. That's why EA changed the name of some of their lesser known studios to the Bioware name with the suffix of 'Northeast Canada Southern Division" or whatever.
Plus Mass Effect wasn't even on all consoles until much later. Then when all the planets were aligned for Bioware and Mass Effect to finally have their breakout smash hit they stumbled for the first time of what is now becoming a trend with the ME3 ending. (Regardless of the fact that ME3 was my favorite game of last gen).
The stars keep aligning themselves and BW keeps shooting themselves in the foot. I am absolutely positive that EA expects big things from BW at SOME point. They have the talent, the resources and the backing to do it.
If they stop blowing it with their game mechanics (DA) or with their story decisions (ME) they might finally have a game that is a hit with both critics AND word of mouth. If that happens then I am confident that EA will finally get that juggernaut smash hit that they have been experiencing from BW.
So many contradicting sentiments up there, especially regarding "changing circumstances and market conditions".
You're suggesting that they planned on Inquisition selling double what it did despite: 1) the company never selling that amount of product for one release; 2) DA2, the previous entry in the franchise, experiencing lackluster sales performance to even that; and 3) knowing full well about the conflict of opinions ("shooting themselves in the foot") over their previous two releases?
That all makes very, very little sense. Would they like it if sales were as good as you're asserting? Of course. Were they banking on that? Not if they have a shred of market/brand awareness or, frankly, common sense. What EA did get out of this, however, was better than expected. Their words.
What happened to the "indie kickstarter" angle of your position about their sales expectations? Which is it?
Think of it this way, Mass Effect 2 and 3 hit sales of around 3-6 million units sold combined, over $200 million in sales for Mass Effect 3 at least. I presume Inquisition is within that range at this point, maybe slightly higher, because of the positive buzz. Maybe it hit that mark quickly.
Got to remember, it is very unlikely EA is aiming for Call of Duty numbers in the billions, so using that as the measuring stick is a bad idea. I also think EA is keeping BioWare around because everything thus far has been very solid, despite flaws. Like every BioWare game, really.
I don't think Bioware will ever get Skyrim numbers.
Not unless they radically alter the way they do things, and basically create an Elder Scrolls game. Skyrim was a such a huge hit because it appealed to a lot of people who also normally don't play RPGs. I know a lot of people who bought Skyrim, who think games like Dragon Age, Mass Effect, or KOTOR are boring. Skyrim was also netting some of the GTA, Assassin's Creed, or shooter crowd.
The RPG market generally speaking is niche.
This, and this.