105 réponses à ce sujet

[Cirvante]

Interesting way of doing it, Luke. I'm not opposed, though. Sounds better than a flat 1%.

Game 7 - 1st Weapon

Game 20 - 2nd Weapon

Game 40 - 3rd Weapon

Game 90 - 4th Weapon

Game 140 - 5th Weapon

Good luck to everyone who'll be attempting to pull their 4th or 5th tonight.

I did ~40 NM runs yesterday and didn't even get my 2nd weapon. If this was 5%, then I don't want to know what 2% feels like.

[yarpenthemad21]

I did ~40 NM runs yesterday and didn't even get my 2nd weapon. If this was 5%, then I don't want to know what 2% feels like.

Math alert!

40 runs and 5% - 12.8 % chance to not get drop after 40 runs.
Now let take 2% - 44.5% chance to not get drop after 40 runs.

The lower % chance is, the less this common "sense" of probability (which is wrong from math point but some ppl think it's working)that I after each 50 (using 2%) runs I would get an item works.
When you take 50% chance and think about it as success every 2 runs you have 25% chance to get 2 fails in row
When you take 2% chance and 50 runs (so with the same proportions) you have 36% chance to get 50 fails in a row.

It's even called a problem of low probability on many papers. The lower single probability is the higher chance for "backluck" streak is.
When you take thousands of players, on average on those thousands of games 2% of them ends up with drop. When you take single player, one can easily end up with few items after several runs and other can have zero after even hundred of them.
You can say that on average with huge amount of games this would be the same, but the problem is that those who get lucky, won't farm it more (because they don't need it).
It's like lottery. In theory with enough games going to infinity you should win at some time. But there is no point in winning after spending 3 times value of reward for tickets, that's why only those "lucky" at start wins truly.

[akots1]

@yarpen: Also consider that we are dealing with pRNG system with some seed number and it is not know whether the seed is constantly re-generated or is assigned based on user ID, your network card ID, IP address, etc. Some seeds are know to be "better" than the others and if the seed is based on your ID, you are "stuck" with the seed. IMO, DAI store ID to my biased self seems more like ID-based pRNG. For example, I constantly get ridiculous numbers of Hossberg twainers (whatever that means), almost in every other chest. IDK how many of these I have salvaged and based on this item level, it should not have been that many as I don't get a lot of items on the same level for other weapons. The Hossberg drops still continue and I was thinking that I should rename DAI store into Hossberg store. IIRC, Hossberg was some Aderfels town besieged by darkspawn for 7 years. I guess that means that only after 7 years of playing DAI I'd start getting something different.

 

Disclaimer: Cannot complain about bad luck as I have otherwise pretty good inventory considering I'm playing very casually.

[Tenzilla]

It has been confirmed, I did my first nightmare dragon, and received a weapon. Drop rate is 100%

[ottffsse]

30 runs 4 weapons

But the fifth? Still to be determined. This is all after the drop adjustment.

[Shine_Darker]

The last 3 or 4 runs the dragon has dropped no items. Not even a common. WTF I am not spending 30min-1hr for no drops.